Arthur's remnents near the BOC

[RL3AO]

Is everyone else as stunned as me?

[Thunder44]

I'm baffled. What is NHC doing?

[Aric Dunn]

I would like to see what Derek and wxman57 say about this huge surprise development.

that is the best statement i have seen ..

[RL3AO]

000
WTNT41 KNHC 311710
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012008
100 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2008

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
BECAME A TROPICAL STORM AS IT WAS CROSSING THE COAST OF BELIZE
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...SHIP DATA
AND A NOAA BUOY 42056 WHICH REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL
STORM FORCE. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KNOTS BUT BECAUSE
ARTHUR IS ALREADY INLAND..WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT ARTHUR REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STATUS IF IT MOVES
BACK OVER WATER IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/07. ARTHUR IS ALREADY
SOUTH OF A DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...THEREFORE A
GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST TRACK IS FORECAST. NONE OF THE
AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS ARTHUR NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE.

THIS SYSTEM IS NOT DESIGNATED TROPICAL STORM ALMA BECAUSE THE
SURFACE CENTER OF ALMA DISSIPATED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL
AMERICA YESTERDAY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/1700Z 18.1N 88.5W 35 KT
12HR VT 01/0000Z 19.0N 90.0W 30 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 01/1200Z 19.5N 91.0W 30 KT...OVER WATER
36HR VT 02/0000Z 19.5N 93.0W 30 KT
48HR VT 02/1200Z 19.0N 94.0W 35 KT
72HR VT 03/1200Z 19.0N 95.0W 35 KT
96HR VT 04/1200Z 18.5N 96.5W 20 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/RHOME

[Thunder44]

I would like to see what Derek and wxman57 say about this huge surprise development.

that is the best statement i have seen ..

They probably off the computers. I'm sure neither expected this. NHC went backwards today.

[Stratosphere747]

Not sure why everyone is "shocked" by the upgrade. So it's over land as noted by the disco.

Keep in mind that there is a new NHC director on board....

[fwbbreeze]

wxman57 is on a bike ride I think...might be a while before we hear from him

[Aric Dunn]

from the way things are progressing with the system i would not be surprised to see a TD by the 11am.. convection is firing right over the center and is deepening rapidly ... and wrapping around ..
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

as long as it continues to move slowly or not at all .. like it has been ..

when i wrote this at 330 in the morning .. i did not think they were going to upgrade to a TS
im a bit surprised..

[Derek Ortt]

I've put a floater on the invest now 9I mean Arthur)

Available at http://www.nwhhc.com/satellite.html

Note, I made a mistake and failed to create a directory for the IR before the crontab ran. The IR still image will not be available for a few more minutes.

Images will be added to the loops over the coming hours (I just set up the image a couple of minutes ago, so if you click now, there is only 1 image in the loop)

[cycloneye]

wxman57 is on a bike ride I think...might be a while before we hear from him

Yeah,he is in a four hour bike ride.I am sure when he is back and see this,he will be very stuned.

[Pearl River]

Never Say Never

[Aric Dunn]

Never Say Never

I say it all the time especially to some of the mets

and i will quote myself...

" you just never know "

[Aric Dunn]

well it will be a nice night to take a break as it crawls across the Yucutan....

[Thunder44]

Not sure why everyone is "shocked" by the upgrade. So it's over land as noted by the disco.

Keep in mind that there is a new NHC director on board....

They issued an STDS at 11:30am saying it moved inland already and they didn't expect any significant development today. How would you expect an upgrade to TS a hour and half later?

[HurricaneRobert]

Was it over land when they upgraded since it was "crossing the coast"? That's not consistent with Erin.

[srainhoutx]

I see wxman57 lurking. I 'll bet that bikeride got interupted by a phone call.

[Javlin]

Never Say Never

I say it all the time especially to some of the mets

and i will quote myself...

" you just never know "

Have to agree,one of the first things I remember learning when in this neck of the woods that development is unlikely with proximity to land like we have had,then go figure.

[Aric Dunn]

Not sure why everyone is "shocked" by the upgrade. So it's over land as noted by the disco.

Keep in mind that there is a new NHC director on board....

They issued an STDS at 11:30am saying it moved inland already and they didn't expect any significant development today. How would you expect an upgrade to TS a hour and half later?

right you would think since they may have known it was a tropical storm at the time of the STDS
but realized it was already making landfall ( what good would it do) and made a mistake that they would just wait till the boc or due some post analysis or something...

[Cryomaniac]

Madness.

WeatherNLU, are you an NHC insider? If not, how the hell did you get that, or are you just lucky?

If the latter, I suggest you buy a lottery ticket

Another pre-season storm (admittedly by a few hours, but pre-season none-the-less)

[cycloneye]

Tentative Recon for sunday at 2 PM EDT.

NOUS42 KNHC 311600 COR
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1200 PM EDT SAT 31 MAY 2008
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 01/1100Z TO 02/1100Z JUNE 2008
TCPOD NUMBER.....08-001

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA --GULF OF MEXICO
A. 01/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 01/1530Z
D. 19.5N AND 92.0W
E. 01/1800Z TO 02/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 24HR FIXES AT 02/1800Z
NEAR 19.5N AND 94.5 W IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

3. CORRECTION SENT TO CHANGE WINTER STORM TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
PLAN OF THE DAY.