Arthur's remnents near the BOC

[fci]

I'm just glad to see that when a system WAS a TS, it got classified as such.
We just need consistency.

So many arguements have ensued in the past where a system did not get named when it looked apparent it was or the opposite.

Lets hope that when a system has the "credentials" it gets named, the same way; every time. Whether is is a threat or not, on land or not, etc....

Happy Hurricane Season everyone.... a day early.

[Derek Ortt]

I am not seeing that on my visible loop http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

what I see is convection, albiet shallow, firing with the daytime heating near the LLC. I also see a very well-defined LLC, which is why I am not ruling out RI in the BOC

[KWT]

Yep Derek I was saying that if it can keep convection bursting over the LLC then as soon as it hits the water obviously its going to have a good base to develop from.

I think recon could be interesting once the system reaches the BoC, which is looking more likely now it would have to travel slight south of west to not reach it.

[robbielyn]

I'm just glad to see that when a system WAS a TS, it got classified as such.
We just need consistency.

So many arguements have ensued in the past where a system did not get named when it looked apparent it was or the opposite.

Lets hope that when a system has the "credentials" it gets named, the same way; every time. Whether is is a threat or not, on land or not, etc....

Happy Hurricane Season everyone.... a day early.

Yes and lets hope that hybrids don't get named. They have no business getting named unless they have a warm core and are truly tropical. I don't care if they have ts force winds.

[dixiebreeze]

By later next week the high is expected to move east enough to produce a SE flow over Florida which will tap the Caribbean moisture and pull it north so we have a shot at rain.

We can only hope, boca. We sure are in a drought situation here in West Central Florida.

[robbielyn]

By later next week the high is expected to move east enough to produce a SE flow over Florida which will tap the Caribbean moisture and pull it north so we have a shot at rain.

We can only hope, boca. We sure are in a drought situation here in West Central Florida.

Well even if we don't get a june soaker via a td or ts, we should be getting ready to start the rainy season with daily thunderstorms but that doesn't usually produce enough to take care of the drought. We have had to deal with a lot of wildfires this may.

[dizzyfish]

By later next week the high is expected to move east enough to produce a SE flow over Florida which will tap the Caribbean moisture and pull it north so we have a shot at rain.

We can only hope, boca. We sure are in a drought situation here in West Central Florida.

Well even if we don't get a june soaker via a td or ts, we should be getting ready to start the rainy season with daily thunderstorms but that doesn't usually produce enough to take care of the drought. We have had to deal with a lot of wildfires this may.

Can't start soon enough for me! Everything is brown and dry. Had a brush fire near the school this past week. I would be happy with at least some clouds. lol

[Cyclenall]

I was absolutely floored when I first checked the NRL site today to find Arthur had formed. I have no words for that really, huge surprise. Another pre-season storm for this year!!

[KWT]

Yep left it right till the last day but there you go, the first EPAC and Atlantic storm within days of each other. As you say I firstly couldn't believe it because I didn't even bother checking the NRL site because I didn't think it would be a tropical storm!

[deltadog03]

I still think the gulf coast needs to watch this pattern very very closely. Maybe in a week or 2 from now.

[HURAKAN]

414
WHXX04 KWBC 312331
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR 01L

INITIAL TIME 18Z MAY 31

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 18.2 88.7 325./ 6.0
6 18.4 89.8 280./10.6
12 18.4 90.6 269./ 7.7
18 18.4 91.1 274./ 4.4
24 18.4 91.3 278./ 2.1
30 18.3 91.6 251./ 3.5
36 18.2 91.8 249./ 1.8
42 18.2 92.5 270./ 6.1
48 18.3 92.8 283./ 2.9
54 18.4 93.5 276./ 6.7
60 18.3 94.1 262./ 6.4
66 18.4 94.3 291./ 1.9
72 18.6 94.4 326./ 2.5
78 18.7 94.9 290./ 4.8
84 18.8 95.3 278./ 3.5
90 19.1 95.5 327./ 3.6
96 19.1 95.5 297./ .4
102 19.3 95.8 308./ 3.0
108 19.3 95.8 135./ .3
114 20.3 96.3 333./11.1
120 20.8 96.7 324./ 6.5
126 21.2 97.3 305./ 7.1

[Ivanhater]

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 010000
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012008
700 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2008

...POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING CONTINUES AS ARTHUR MOVES
SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE
AND FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CABO CATOCHE
SOUTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH BELIZE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 700 PM CDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS
LOCATED INLAND OVER THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO NEAR
LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.2 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES...90
KM...WEST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO AND ABOUT 175 MILES...285 KM... EAST OF
CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO.

ARTHUR IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...
AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARTHUR WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA TONIGHT AND COULD EMERGE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON
SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER OVER THE WATERS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A
DEPRESSION TONIGHT...BUT IT COULD LATER REGAIN TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH IF IT EMERGES OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES...415 KM
TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

REPEATING THE 700 PM CDT POSITION...18.4 N...89.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[Evil Jeremy]

90 19.1 95.5 327./ 3.6
96 19.1 95.5 297./ .4
102 19.3 95.8 308./ 3.0
108 19.3 95.8 135./ .3
114 20.3 96.3 333./11.1
120 20.8 96.7 324./ 6.5
126 21.2 97.3 305./ 7.1

Big jump to the NW at the end there. Why?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

LLC now in Mexico near 18.25 north/89.2 west and moving west at near 280 degree's over the last few hours. The Convection is starting to form over the western Caribbean and leaving the LLC partly exposed...So nhc track looks very likely as of this moment.

[Derek Ortt]

90 19.1 95.5 327./ 3.6
96 19.1 95.5 297./ .4
102 19.3 95.8 308./ 3.0
108 19.3 95.8 135./ .3
114 20.3 96.3 333./11.1
120 20.8 96.7 324./ 6.5
126 21.2 97.3 305./ 7.1

Big jump to the NW at the end there. Why?

Because it doodles long enough for the ridge to break down

[dwsqos2]

Observations from Ciudad del Carmen (With the exception of the earlier buoy and ship reports, these are the most "impressive" obs thus far.)...

SPECI MMCE 312255Z 36025G35KT 1/2SM RA OVC005 27/24 A2969 RMK 8/9// CB OVR STN

[HURAKAN]

I think the formation of Arthur was even more surprising that the formation of Andrea.

[HURAKAN]

347
WHXX01 KWBC 010026
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0026 UTC SUN JUN 1 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE ARTHUR (AL012008) 20080601 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080601 0000 080601 1200 080602 0000 080602 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.4N 89.2W 19.0N 91.3W 18.9N 93.3W 18.6N 95.3W
BAMD 18.4N 89.2W 18.4N 90.5W 18.2N 92.0W 17.8N 93.7W
BAMM 18.4N 89.2W 18.6N 90.9W 18.3N 92.8W 17.7N 95.0W
LBAR 18.4N 89.2W 18.6N 90.8W 19.0N 92.6W 19.5N 94.4W
SHIP 35KTS 37KTS 40KTS 45KTS
DSHP 35KTS 29KTS 34KTS 39KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080603 0000 080604 0000 080605 0000 080606 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.0N 97.0W 17.1N 99.6W 16.5N 101.0W 16.2N 102.0W
BAMD 17.3N 95.6W 16.8N 99.6W 17.0N 103.1W 18.0N 106.4W
BAMM 17.0N 97.3W 16.2N 101.4W 16.1N 104.5W 16.4N 107.1W
LBAR 20.1N 96.3W 21.2N 100.0W 22.5N 102.2W 24.5N 102.1W
SHIP 50KTS 58KTS 67KTS 71KTS
DSHP 44KTS 31KTS 27KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.4N LONCUR = 89.2W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 17.9N LONM12 = 88.2W DIRM12 = 322DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 16.9N LONM24 = 87.5W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 125NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 150NM RD34SE = 150NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[djones65]

I find it interesting that in the 7 p.m. CDT Intermediate Advisory on Arthur that they still list the central pressure as 29.71 inches of mercury. However, if you look at the hourly observations from Carmen, MX the pressure there is down to 29.69 inches of mercury. Winds are sustained at 30 mph out of the north and gusting to 40 mph. Perhaps some consideration should be made to issuing tropical storm warnings for the west coast of Yucatan? At least the coastal towns in Bay of Campeche where strong northerly winds will likely funnel high tides? Just an observation. Satellite shows multiple vortices rotating about the common center estimated by NHC, but one such vortice based on last visible image was rotating southwest near 18N and 90W. Carmen is located more than 130 miles from NHC's position which makes me wonder what the central pressure in Arthur really is. Or is the broad center relocating to the west coast of Yucatan? Does anyone else have any thoughts on this?