Arthur's remnents near the BOC

[MiamiensisWx]

MAJOR kudos to NDG, the NHC, and others... I certainly should have adhered to my gut feelings that were based on available data suggesting it was a TD or TS prior to landfall!

Since a ship reported 44 kt (?) winds prior to moving ashore over the Yucatan, the final TCR will probably classify Arthur near 40 kt prior to striking land.

[CrazyC83]

MAJOR kudos to NDG, the NHC, and others... I certainly should have adhered to my gut feelings that were based on available data suggesting it was a TD or TS prior to landfall!

Since a ship reported 44 kt (?) winds prior to moving ashore over the Yucatan, the final TCR will probably classify Arthur near 40 kt prior to striking land.

If a ship reported sustained 44 kt winds, the TCR will likely say 45 kt. That might have been gusts though.

[jaxfladude]

Next time send some of that heavy tropical moisture my way, weather gods....and others' way too to relieve the drought conditions...

[MiamiensisWx]

I find it interesting that in the 7 p.m. CDT Intermediate Advisory on Arthur that they still list the central pressure as 29.71 inches of mercury. However, if you look at the hourly observations from Carmen, MX the pressure there is down to 29.69 inches of mercury. Winds are sustained at 30 mph out of the north and gusting to 40 mph. Perhaps some consideration should be made to issuing tropical storm warnings for the west coast of Yucatan? At least the coastal towns in Bay of Campeche where strong northerly winds will likely funnel high tides? Just an observation. Satellite shows multiple vortices rotating about the common center estimated by NHC, but one such vortice based on last visible image was rotating southwest near 18N and 90W. Carmen is located more than 130 miles from NHC's position which makes me wonder what the central pressure in Arthur really is. Or is the broad center relocating to the west coast of Yucatan? Does anyone else have any thoughts on this?

Lately, I've noticed some discrepancies between the maximum sustained winds/minimum central pressure in the operational advisories and raw observations such as surface data, QuikSCAT, ship/buoy reports, et al. This was evident for Alma and Arthur. For example, they raised Alma's intensity to 55 kt when QuikSCAT and satellite data may have suggested slightly stronger winds. Secondly, surface observations during the preceding night supported a closed low level circulation for 90L, and organization was increasing, but it was not upgraded. Later, a ship report (and a separate observation) indicated sustained TS winds, but there was no upgrade. Hopefully, the NHC is carefully monitoring and perusing all available information in order to avoid "unanticipated" systems like Arthur. The lack of TS warnings or watches because of the late upgrade presents a troubling scenario. Regardless, it is excellent that they still heeded the data and upgraded it to a TS, accordingly.

[Hyperstorm]

Latest water vapor imagery reveals what could be a developing upper level low to the north-northeast of Arthur. It seems to me that upper level winds are starting to impinge in the northwest portion of the circulation. Does anyone else see this? If this trend continues, I believe this could affect the strength of Arthur over the Bay of Campeche or it could even allow Arthur to stay stationary near the west coast of the Yucatan for some while.

No models show this as far as I can tell, but I think it bears some watching...

[drezee]

0000Z position and estimated winds

[JonathanBelles]

What happened to the satellite?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Hey MiamiWx or any Promet or anyone! Is Florida going to miss the moisture
from the Arthur system? We need a weak depression or low end storm to
give us some rain

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

This has been quite a day. So many storm developments with Arthur! Had a
feeling something would stir up in the Caribbean...
So this Arthur is headed to Central America due to the strong
ridge...watch out for flooding rains (in Central America).

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

It is interesting how whenever a monsoon trough is in this area
storms rapidly develop...Alma...and then Arthur...

[boca]

Wilma developed out of a monsson trough.

IN THE EXTENDED, STILL LOOKS LIKE OUR BEST SHOT FOR GETTING DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE PULLED NORTHWARD ACROSS S FLA TO BE LATE NEXT WEEK.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN THE MID LATITUDES
WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WHICH
EVENTUALLY CAUSES IT TO RETREAT ACROSS MEXICO AND ALLOWING FOR
ATLANTIC RIDGE TO BUILD PUTTING S FLA IN A MORE FAVORABLE REGION FOR
RETURN MOISTURE FROM THE CARIBBEAN.

[Ivanhater]

Intense convection devloping off the Belize coast..I wonder with the overall setup if the convection can lower pressure in the Caribbean to form another low in the Caribbean as the other one dies off...

[cycloneye]

WTNT21 KNHC 010248
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012008
0300 UTC SUN JUN 01 2008

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE
AND FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CABO CATOCHE
MEXICO SOUTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH BELIZE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 89.5W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......175NE 175SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 89.5W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 89.2W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 18.4N 90.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 18.4N 91.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 18.3N 92.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 18.3N 93.6W...NEAR BAY OF CAMPECHE COAST
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.2N 95.0W...INLAND REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 18.0N 96.0W...INLAND REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 89.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012008
1000 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2008

...CENTER OF ARTHUR CROSSING THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...
...WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE
AND FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CABO CATOCHE
MEXICO SOUTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH BELIZE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1000 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS
CENTERED INLAND OVER THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR LATITUDE
18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.5 WEST OR ABOUT 80 MILES...125 KM...WEST
OF CHETUMAL MEXICO AND ABOUT 120 MILES...195 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF CAMPECHE MEXICO.

ARTHUR IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARTHUR WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA OVERNIGHT AND WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE COAST OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A
DEPRESSION TONIGHT OR TOMORROW MORNING...BUT IT COULD LATER REGAIN
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH ON SUNDAY OR MONDAY IF IT EMERGES OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM
TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

REPEATING THE 1000 PM CDT POSITION...18.4 N...89.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[MGC]

Arthur still a TS at 10pm due to winds over Caribbean. Now all we have to do is watch it cross Yucatan and see how strong Arthur gets over the BOC.....MGC

[Chacor]

WTNT41 KNHC 010258
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012008
1100 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2008

THE CENTER OF ARTHUR REMAINS INLAND OVER THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA OF MEXICO...BUT MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER
IS WELL REMOVED FROM THAT LOCATION. THE BAND OF CONVECTION JUST
OFFSHORE TO THE EAST OF BELIZE WENT THROUGH A BRIEF LULL AROUND 22Z
BUT HAS SINCE PERKED UP AGAIN...WITH RATHER COLD INFRARED CLOUD
TOPS COLLOCATED WITH NUMEROUS LONG-RANGE LIGHTNING RETURNS. OTHER
LARGE CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION HAVE PERSISTED INLAND TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER...HIGHLIGHTING THE
CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS AND INLAND FLOODING.
ESSENTIALLY NO DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN OCCURRING RECENTLY IN THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ALMOST CERTAINLY OCCURRING IN THE BAND EAST OF BELIZE. DATA FROM
THE 2330Z QUIKSCAT PASS OVER THAT AREA JUST ARRIVED AND SUGGEST THE
MAXIMUM WINDS ARE STILL ABOUT 35 KT.

LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF ARTHUR SHOULD STEER THE
CYCLONE GENERALLY WESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 OR 6 KT FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...BUT IT IS QUITE UNCERTAIN HOW STRONG ARTHUR WILL BE OR HOW
LONG IT WILL LAST. THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE IS MUDDY AT BEST...BUT
MOST OF THE MODELS FORECAST ARTHUR OR ITS REMNANTS TO SPEND MOST OF
THE NEXT THREE DAYS OR SO OVER LAND..JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. ONLY THE GFDL SHOWS THE CENTER EMERGING BACK OVER WATER.
THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE AND STAYS JUST INLAND FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. AS A
RESULT...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD AND
CALLS FOR ARTHUR TO SOON BE A DEPRESSION AND REMAIN THAT WAY FOR A
COUPLE OF DAYS UNTIL DEGENERATING TO A REMNANT LOW OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO. IF...HOWEVER...THE ACTUAL TRACK ENDS UP JUST
A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH...AND THE CENTER OF ARTHUR EMERGES OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE...IT IS POSSIBLE THE SYSTEM COULD BE AT TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH IN A DAY OR TWO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/0300Z 18.4N 89.5W 35 KT...INLAND
12HR VT 01/1200Z 18.4N 90.5W 30 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 02/0000Z 18.4N 91.5W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 02/1200Z 18.3N 92.5W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 03/0000Z 18.3N 93.6W 30 KT...NEAR COAST
72HR VT 04/0000Z 18.2N 95.0W 25 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 05/0000Z 18.0N 96.0W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[Chacor]

THE CENTER OF ARTHUR REMAINS INLAND OVER THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA OF MEXICO...BUT MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER
IS WELL REMOVED FROM THAT LOCATION.

ESSENTIALLY NO DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN OCCURRING RECENTLY IN THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.

Can any mets suggest why this isn't being classed as subtropical, with the above admitted in the discussion?

[srainhoutx]

Ridge looks to keep things south for awhile. As mentioned above, keep an eye on the trough.

[wxman57]

THE CENTER OF ARTHUR REMAINS INLAND OVER THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA OF MEXICO...BUT MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER
IS WELL REMOVED FROM THAT LOCATION.

ESSENTIALLY NO DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN OCCURRING RECENTLY IN THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.

Can any mets suggest why this isn't being classed as subtropical, with the above admitted in the discussion?

I plotted the obs across the western Caribbean from 21z to now and can't find anything to suggest more than 15-20 kts offshore. NHC probably playing it safe in case that area of squalls just offshore has a small pocket of TS winds. Unlikely, but not impossible. New track keeps shifting left. Strong ridge building to its north. Hopefully the LLC will dissipate tonight.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Chances are increasing that Arthur will not even get into the BOC. In which is what the "hurricane" models have been shifting to over the last few runs, and now the nhc agree's with it. Its clear that it will have to move another degree north to make it into the BOC. It's going to be close.