Arthur's remnents near the BOC
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Re: Tropical Storm Arthur in Yucatan Penninsula
ULL that Hyperstorm elluded too might play a roll in this since it looks like Arthur woobled southward.
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it also looks like on WV that the ridge is building S to SW...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html
current steering layers
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm2.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html
current steering layers
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm2.html
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-
JonathanBelles
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 11430
- Age: 35
- Joined: Sat Dec 24, 2005 9:00 pm
- Location: School: Florida State University (Tallahassee, FL) Home: St. Petersburg, Florida
- Contact:
00
WTNT31 KNHC 010553
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012008
100 AM CDT SUN JUN 01 2008
...CENTER OF ARTHUR CONTINUES ITS SLOW PASSAGE OVER THE YUCATAN...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE
AND FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CABO CATOCHE
MEXICO SOUTHWARD TO THE MEXICO/BELIZE BORDER.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 100 AM CDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS
LOCATED INLAND OVER THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR LATITUDE
18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.8 WEST OR ABOUT 110 MILES...180 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAMPECHE MEXICO.
ARTHUR IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARTHUR WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAY
OF CAMPECHE COAST OF MEXICO LATER TODAY AND MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION LATER
TODAY...BUT IT COULD REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IF IT EMERGES
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM
TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
REPEATING THE 100 AM CDT POSITION...18.4 N...89.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
400 AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN
WTNT31 KNHC 010553
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012008
100 AM CDT SUN JUN 01 2008
...CENTER OF ARTHUR CONTINUES ITS SLOW PASSAGE OVER THE YUCATAN...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE
AND FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CABO CATOCHE
MEXICO SOUTHWARD TO THE MEXICO/BELIZE BORDER.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 100 AM CDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS
LOCATED INLAND OVER THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR LATITUDE
18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.8 WEST OR ABOUT 110 MILES...180 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAMPECHE MEXICO.
ARTHUR IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARTHUR WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAY
OF CAMPECHE COAST OF MEXICO LATER TODAY AND MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION LATER
TODAY...BUT IT COULD REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IF IT EMERGES
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM
TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
REPEATING THE 100 AM CDT POSITION...18.4 N...89.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
400 AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN
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Well Arthur is still a tropical storm, despite being well inland it seems like the tropical storm force winds are occuring within the convection to the east of the Yucatan.
I just wonder whether that area will eventually need to be watched as well because if Arthur keeps moving to the west inland eventually it will weaken and we could see a new system develop in its wake in a situation more faovrable for a more northerly track.
Arthur certainly has been a slightly strange system!
I just wonder whether that area will eventually need to be watched as well because if Arthur keeps moving to the west inland eventually it will weaken and we could see a new system develop in its wake in a situation more faovrable for a more northerly track.
Arthur certainly has been a slightly strange system!
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-
Chris_in_Tampa
- Category 5
- Posts: 5075
- Age: 41
- Joined: Thu Jun 21, 2007 11:06 pm
- Location: Tampa, Florida, USA
- Contact:
Re: Arthur Advisories
000
WTNT31 KNHC 010852
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012008
400 AM CDT SUN JUN 01 2008
...DISORGANIZED ARTHUR STILL PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE
AND FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CABO CATOCHE
MEXICO SOUTHWARD TO THE MEXICO/BELIZE BORDER.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 400 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.1 WEST OR ABOUT 115
MILES...185 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAMPECHE MEXICO.
ARTHUR IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARTHUR WOULD REMAIN OVER LAND.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ARTHUR
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION LATER TODAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM
EAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
REPEATING THE 400 AM CDT POSITION...18.3 N...90.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
000
WTNT41 KNHC 010853
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012008
500 AM EDT SUN JUN 01 2008
THE CENTER OF ARTHUR IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN NIGHT-VIS
IMAGERY...BUT STILL APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY CROSSING THE SOUTHERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA. LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
STRONG CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS...NORTHERN
GUATEMALA...AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...BUT NONE NEAR THE CIRCULATION
CENTER. SINCE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD STILL BE OCCURRING
OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS....ARTHUR WILL REMAIN A 35 KT TROPICAL
STORM FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS WEST AT 6 KT...AND WITH LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
RIDGING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE. ALL OF
THE CURRENT GUIDANCE KEEPS THE CENTER OF ARTHUR INLAND OVER
MEXICO...AND IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE WITH A
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO THE SOUTH.
WITH THE CENTER OF ARTHUR FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER LAND...MOST LIKELY
THE BEST THAT IT CAN DO IS TO MAINTAIN STORM STRENGTH FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR WEAKENING TO
A DEPRESSION LATER TODAY...WITH DEGENERATION TO A REMNANT LOW
EXPECTED IN TWO OR THREE DAYS. A POSSIBILITY STILL EXISTS THAT THE
CENTER COULD EMERGE OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE....ALTHOUGH
NORTHERLY WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR PARKED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
WOULD LIMIT REDEVELOPMENT SHOULD THIS OCCUR.
THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM ARTHUR REMAINS THE HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 01/0900Z 18.3N 90.1W 35 KT
12HR VT 01/1800Z 18.2N 90.8W 30 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 02/0600Z 18.1N 91.9W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 02/1800Z 18.0N 93.0W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 03/0600Z 18.0N 94.0W 30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 04/0600Z 18.0N 95.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN
WTNT31 KNHC 010852
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012008
400 AM CDT SUN JUN 01 2008
...DISORGANIZED ARTHUR STILL PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE
AND FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CABO CATOCHE
MEXICO SOUTHWARD TO THE MEXICO/BELIZE BORDER.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 400 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.1 WEST OR ABOUT 115
MILES...185 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAMPECHE MEXICO.
ARTHUR IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARTHUR WOULD REMAIN OVER LAND.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ARTHUR
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION LATER TODAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM
EAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
REPEATING THE 400 AM CDT POSITION...18.3 N...90.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
000
WTNT41 KNHC 010853
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012008
500 AM EDT SUN JUN 01 2008
THE CENTER OF ARTHUR IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN NIGHT-VIS
IMAGERY...BUT STILL APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY CROSSING THE SOUTHERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA. LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
STRONG CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS...NORTHERN
GUATEMALA...AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...BUT NONE NEAR THE CIRCULATION
CENTER. SINCE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD STILL BE OCCURRING
OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS....ARTHUR WILL REMAIN A 35 KT TROPICAL
STORM FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS WEST AT 6 KT...AND WITH LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
RIDGING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE. ALL OF
THE CURRENT GUIDANCE KEEPS THE CENTER OF ARTHUR INLAND OVER
MEXICO...AND IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE WITH A
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO THE SOUTH.
WITH THE CENTER OF ARTHUR FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER LAND...MOST LIKELY
THE BEST THAT IT CAN DO IS TO MAINTAIN STORM STRENGTH FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR WEAKENING TO
A DEPRESSION LATER TODAY...WITH DEGENERATION TO A REMNANT LOW
EXPECTED IN TWO OR THREE DAYS. A POSSIBILITY STILL EXISTS THAT THE
CENTER COULD EMERGE OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE....ALTHOUGH
NORTHERLY WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR PARKED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
WOULD LIMIT REDEVELOPMENT SHOULD THIS OCCUR.
THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM ARTHUR REMAINS THE HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 01/0900Z 18.3N 90.1W 35 KT
12HR VT 01/1800Z 18.2N 90.8W 30 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 02/0600Z 18.1N 91.9W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 02/1800Z 18.0N 93.0W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 03/0600Z 18.0N 94.0W 30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 04/0600Z 18.0N 95.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN
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-
wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
- Posts: 22978
- Age: 67
- Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
Re: Tropical Storm Arthur in Yucatan Penninsula
I doubt that there are any TS winds in that squall east of Belize. Winds inland within 100 miles of the center of Arthur are in the 10-15 kt range, though. Not much to speak of. The LLC could easily dissipate today.
As for the western Caribbean, that upper trof will remain over the coming week. GFS has been indicating increasing storms in the western Caribbean later this coming week. Definitely something to keep an eye on.
As for the western Caribbean, that upper trof will remain over the coming week. GFS has been indicating increasing storms in the western Caribbean later this coming week. Definitely something to keep an eye on.
0 likes
WTNT31 KNHC 011131
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012008
700 AM CDT SUN JUN 01 2008
...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODS CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT
FROM ARTHUR...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE
AND FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CABO CATOCHE
MEXICO SOUTHWARD TO THE MEXICO/BELIZE BORDER.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 700 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.3 WEST OR ABOUT 115
MILES...185 KM...SOUTH OF CAMPECHE MEXICO.
ARTHUR IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARTHUR WOULD REMAIN OVER LAND.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ARTHUR
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION LATER TODAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM
EAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
REPEATING THE 700 AM CDT POSITION...18.2 N...90.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1000 AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER RHOME
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012008
700 AM CDT SUN JUN 01 2008
...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODS CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT
FROM ARTHUR...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE
AND FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CABO CATOCHE
MEXICO SOUTHWARD TO THE MEXICO/BELIZE BORDER.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 700 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.3 WEST OR ABOUT 115
MILES...185 KM...SOUTH OF CAMPECHE MEXICO.
ARTHUR IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARTHUR WOULD REMAIN OVER LAND.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ARTHUR
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION LATER TODAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM
EAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
REPEATING THE 700 AM CDT POSITION...18.2 N...90.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1000 AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER RHOME
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-
DESTRUCTION5
- Category 5
- Posts: 4423
- Age: 43
- Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:25 am
- Location: Stuart, FL
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145299
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Tropical Storm Arthur Models Thread
WHXX01 KWBC 011239
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1239 UTC SUN JUN 1 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE ARTHUR (AL012008) 20080601 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080601 1200 080602 0000 080602 1200 080603 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.1N 90.4W 18.4N 92.3W 18.3N 93.9W 17.9N 95.5W
BAMD 18.1N 90.4W 18.0N 91.8W 17.6N 93.4W 17.2N 95.0W
BAMM 18.1N 90.4W 18.0N 92.1W 17.5N 94.0W 16.8N 95.9W
LBAR 18.1N 90.4W 18.2N 91.8W 18.5N 93.5W 18.9N 95.3W
SHIP 30KTS 31KTS 34KTS 41KTS
DSHP 30KTS 28KTS 27KTS 27KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080603 1200 080604 1200 080605 1200 080606 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.5N 97.0W 16.9N 99.1W 16.5N 100.0W 16.6N 100.7W
BAMD 16.9N 96.9W 16.9N 100.0W 17.2N 102.9W 17.9N 105.6W
BAMM 16.2N 97.8W 15.6N 100.6W 15.3N 102.4W 15.1N 103.9W
LBAR 19.6N 97.1W 21.0N 100.2W 23.0N 101.3W 25.8N 100.3W
SHIP 48KTS 60KTS 68KTS 71KTS
DSHP 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS 29KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.1N LONCUR = 90.4W DIRCUR = 265DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 18.4N LONM12 = 89.2W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 17.9N LONM24 = 88.2W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 175NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 225NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
Downgraded to Depression at 11 AM EDT.
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1239 UTC SUN JUN 1 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE ARTHUR (AL012008) 20080601 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080601 1200 080602 0000 080602 1200 080603 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.1N 90.4W 18.4N 92.3W 18.3N 93.9W 17.9N 95.5W
BAMD 18.1N 90.4W 18.0N 91.8W 17.6N 93.4W 17.2N 95.0W
BAMM 18.1N 90.4W 18.0N 92.1W 17.5N 94.0W 16.8N 95.9W
LBAR 18.1N 90.4W 18.2N 91.8W 18.5N 93.5W 18.9N 95.3W
SHIP 30KTS 31KTS 34KTS 41KTS
DSHP 30KTS 28KTS 27KTS 27KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080603 1200 080604 1200 080605 1200 080606 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.5N 97.0W 16.9N 99.1W 16.5N 100.0W 16.6N 100.7W
BAMD 16.9N 96.9W 16.9N 100.0W 17.2N 102.9W 17.9N 105.6W
BAMM 16.2N 97.8W 15.6N 100.6W 15.3N 102.4W 15.1N 103.9W
LBAR 19.6N 97.1W 21.0N 100.2W 23.0N 101.3W 25.8N 100.3W
SHIP 48KTS 60KTS 68KTS 71KTS
DSHP 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS 29KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.1N LONCUR = 90.4W DIRCUR = 265DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 18.4N LONM12 = 89.2W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 17.9N LONM24 = 88.2W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 175NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 225NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
Downgraded to Depression at 11 AM EDT.
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I agree with wxman57 about Aurthur could be dissipating later today, BOC is not in its horizon, even if he was to make it, UL conditions are not that conducive for redevelopment, you can clearly see northerly shear.
Trough left behind will have to be watched over the next few days in the GOH where things will be spared from any strong windshear next week.
GFS makes things promising for FL (rainwise statewide) for the end of the week into next weekend, whether something redevelps or not.
CMC & Euro do not.
Trough left behind will have to be watched over the next few days in the GOH where things will be spared from any strong windshear next week.
GFS makes things promising for FL (rainwise statewide) for the end of the week into next weekend, whether something redevelps or not.
CMC & Euro do not.
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DESTRUCTION5
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gatorcane
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Re: Tropical Storm Arthur in Yucatan Penninsula
boca wrote:I wonder what that blow up of thunderstorms off the Yucatan will look like in the morning.
Still there and looks even better than last night. Bear watch continues for the Gulf of Honduras.
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