Development in Northwest Caribbean?

[gatorcane]

I'd like to open this thread. Arthur is losing its identity over Central America as he pushes WSW. The area that continues to interest me is the deep convection in the NW Caribbean that is the result of a lingering monsoon trough in that region. We need to watch this area this week especially since a trough is poised to dig down into the SE US by later in the week to erode any ridging to the north:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg

this thread is different than the Hou-Gal Bear Watch thread because that thread talks about SW Carib development. This one talks about the monsoon trough in the NW Caribbean.

[punkyg]

If this develops, then we can say this formed off of the convection of arthur which formed off the remnants of Alma.
storms forming off each other. sweet.

[NDG]

Any circulation trying to reform over water not there yet, surface circulation is still over land, MLC near the coastal waters.

[gatorcane]

An area of broad cyclonic turn exists in general area of the Western GOH. If convection persists I expect the NHC did start commenting on this feature as it remains stationary.

[dixiebreeze]

That burst of convection that seems mostly stationary, is pretty impressive. Definitely an area to watch for a new invest.

[KWT]

I wouldn't be surprised if a center does develop there that they will just say it was a center reformation from Arthur...still it is interesting and we could wel lsee a new invest from it if any hints of a circulation emerge.

Well we are back to blob watching

[Ivanhater]

I brought this up last night in the chatroom with gatorcane and boca. This area continues to flare up and with the trough in place and low pressure overall, I would not be surprised is something pulled together..again. We have already had 2 systems form with this overall setup so if it continues, another storm is bound to form. Just a wait and see but waking up to this area continuing to persist is interesting.

[KWT]

Quite possibly, the area of convection is starting to weaken now but as long as there is some voricity in the region then there is always going to be a fair chance that eventually something could form under any sustained convection, esp once Arthur is totally out of the way. EVentually there will be some sort of weakness to the north that will take the whole lot northwards, that will be when to really watch for a developing system

[x-y-no]

Unfortunately, the 12Z GFS run at NCEP seems to be coming out all blank.

Yesterday's 12Z had a 1002mb low approaching the northern gulf coast at 180 hours.

[KWT]

Yeah and to be fair the GFS did do well with Arthur developing over the GoH just like it progged. Will be interesting to see what the GFS shows on the 12z run just a shame it doesn't seem to want to work today!

[Ivanhater]

Unfortunately, the 12Z GFS run at NCEP seems to be coming out all blank.

Yesterday's 12Z had a 1002mb low approaching the northern gulf coast at 180 hours.

Hmm..thats odd Jan..Earlier runs seemed to drop the low but with the overall setup I would'nt be surprised for it to show up again.

[JonathanBelles]

Unfortunately, the 12Z GFS run at NCEP seems to be coming out all blank.

Yesterday's 12Z had a 1002mb low approaching the northern gulf coast at 180 hours.

I was wondering why I was getting blanks....

Anyway...if a system formed there it would be Tropical Storm Bertha formed from TS Arthur which formed from TS Alma in the EPAC. Wouldnt that make you confused? Has that ever happened before where theres an ever budding system?

[cycloneye]

For those who see that the sat pics haved not updated for a few hours,see why at this thread.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=101201&p=1715584#p1715584

[KWT]

I'm not sure fact789 but there was one season where like 4 tropical systems formed from the same region of disturbed weather, not sure what year that was mind you?

[stormhunter7]

see the 12z CMC is on board now with a GOM low... in a couple of days... hmmm

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[KWT]

Yep CMC does indeed develop a system just south of Cuba then take sit NW towards an ever increasing weakness in the high. Looks like it forms from a tropical wave but to be honest its pretty hard to tell.

[Ivanhater]

[Ivanhater]

Nogaps is trying to develop the same low...

[Ivanhater]

Nogaps is trying to develop the same low...

I don't see the "low" you are talking about in the image posted.

The "low" is in the middle of the Gulf...the cmc closes the low and nogaps begins to close the low...

[KWT]

Its closing off though to be fair PP, about half way there. Whilst its a long way off it does still need to be watched as we are now in hurricane season and this region does tend to be at risk. We will have to wait and see if the models continue to suggest this set-up.