ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 260900
SPC AC 260900
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2008
VALID 291200Z - 031200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD /I.E.
DAY 4 -- THU. MAY 29 -- THROUGH ROUGHLY DAY 6 -- SAT. MAY 31/...WITH
DIFFERENCES IN SOLUTIONS INCREASING BEYOND THIS TIME.
IN THE MEAN TIME HOWEVER...RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT STILL APPEARS LIKELY DAYS 4-5...AS A STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
MOVING NEWD OUT OF THE ROCKIES CRESTS THE CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE DAY
4...AND THEN ARCS ESEWD TOWARD THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES DAY 5. WITH
A MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE...AND WITH
MODERATELY-STRONG MID-LEVEL JET ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM WHICH
SHOULD PROVIDE FAVORABLE SHEAR...SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES TO APPEAR
LIKELY.
..GOSS.. 05/26/2008
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
2008 Severe Weather Thread
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HarlequinBoy
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HarlequinBoy
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And again
SPC AC 311248
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0748 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2008
VALID 311300Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES AND NORTHEAST...
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SRN KS AND NRN OK...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL/SRN PLNS EWD
THROUGH THE OH /TN VLYS INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CAROLINAS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPR MS VLY...
...SYNOPSIS...
PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE OVER THE LWR 48 THIS PERIOD. BROAD
TROUGH NOW OVER THE GRT LKS WILL CONTINUE E INTO WRN QUEBEC/NY/PA AS
UPSTREAM RIDGE NOW OVER THE RCKYS/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BUILDS E INTO
THE HI PLNS...AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ROUND BASE OF LOW OFF THE
WA CST.
AT THE SFC...LOW ASSOCD WITH THE GRT LKS SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM NEAR
GEORGIAN BAY THIS MORNING TO NRN VT THIS EVENING BEFORE CONTINUING E
TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES EARLY SUNDAY. PRIMARY COLD FRONT TRAILING
SW FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE E/SE ACROSS NY/PA AND NEW ENGLAND LATER
TODAY...WHILE WRN END BECOMES MORE OR LESS STATIONARY FROM WRN KY
INTO NRN PARTS OF AR AND OK. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LEE TROUGH E OF
THE APLCNS AND VARIOUS CONFLUENCE AXES WILL BE ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF
LOW-LVL UPLIFT.
...NEW ENGLAND SW TO CAROLINAS/KY/TN...
A SERIES OF WEAKENING PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS WILL CONTINUE
E/ESE ACROSS THE ERN OH VLY AND THE NRN APLCNS THROUGH LATER THIS
MORNING. GIVEN MODERATELY TO STRONGLY-SHEARED CYCLONIC FLOW OVER
REGION...EPISODIC EMBEDDED ROTATING STRUCTURES MAY POSE A CONTINUED
THREAT FOR ISOLD DMGG WIND GUSTS AND/OR BRIEF TORNADOES.
CLOUD DEBRIS SPREADING DOWNSTREAM FROM THE STORM CLUSTERS WILL
INHIBIT SFC HEATING OVER MUCH OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND
NORTHEAST. BUT EVEN WITH MODEST HEATING...COMBINATION OF STRONG
WIND FIELD...MODERATE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND INCREASING
LOW-LVL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A SETUP FAVORABLE FOR RENEWED STORM
DEVELOPMENT/SVR WEATHER BY EARLY AFTN.
SATELLITE-DERIVED PW DATA SHOW MOISTURE SPREADING NEWD ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC AND NERN STATES ATTM ALONG TWO AXES...ONE FROM OH INTO
WRN PA/WRN NY...AND THE OTHER ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC CSTL PLN. MID
60S F SFC DEW POINTS SHOULD REACH ERN PA/SERN NY BY EARLY
AFTN...WITH UPR 60S FROM MD/DE SWD. IN ADDITION TO EXPECTED
REDEVELOPMENT OF OVERNIGHT STORM CLUSTERS...OTHER STORMS LIKELY WILL
FORM ALONG LEE TROUGH FROM SE NY INTO VA AND THE CAROLINAS...AND
ALONG/AHEAD OF DIFFUSE COLD FRONT OVER THE WRN SLOPES OF THE
MOUNTAINS FROM WRN NY SW INTO WV/KY.
60+ KT DIFFLUENT WLY 500 MB FLOW ATOP 30+ KT WSWLY LOW-LVL FLOW WILL
YIELD AMPLE DEEP SHEAR SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS/BOWS...ESPECIALLY WITH
STORMS ALONG LEE TROUGH IN THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. SOMEWHAT WEAKER
SHEAR WILL EXIST FARTHER S. ALTHOUGH THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE
DMGG WINDS/HAIL...TERRAIN-INDUCED BACKING OF THE LOW-LVL FLOW ACROSS
SE NY...AND SLIGHTLY-BACKED NEAR-SFC FLOW INVOF DIFFUSE WARM FRONT
IN WRN NEW ENGLAND...COULD ENHANCE LOW-LVL STORM ROTATION AND THE
RISK OF TORNADOES IN THOSE AREAS.
TSTMS SHOULD PEAK AND MOVE OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVENING IN ALL EXCEPT
PARTS OF SRN VA/CNTRL-ERN CAROLINAS...WHERE LINGERING CELLS MAY
REMAIN STG/SVR WELL INTO THE EVENING.
...SRN-CNTRL PLNS INTO OZARKS/LWR OH AND TN VLYS...
PERSISTENT WAA/RICH MOISTURE INFLOW ON WRN END OF STALLING FRONT HAS
SUPPORTED OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENT OF SCTD SVR STORMS OVER SRN KS/FAR
NRN OK. THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL PERSIST IN SOME FORM OR ANOTHER
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED BOTH
EWD ALONG FRONT INTO THE WRN KY/TN...AND NW INTO WRN/CNTRL KS.
GIVEN QUALITY OF MOISTURE INFLOW...CONTINUING PRESENCE OF STEEP
MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...AND MDT MID-LVL FLOW ON SRN EDGE OF THE
WLYS...THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL PRODUCE PERIODIC BOUTS OF SVR
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION AS SBCAPE INCREASES TO 3000 J/KG.
ALTHOUGH THE PRIMARY THREAT SHOULD BE VERY LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY DMGG
WIND COULD ALSO OCCUR...ESPECIALLY IF STORM COLD POOLS CONSOLIDATE
AND LEAD TO ENHANCED E/SE MCS MOTION. IN ADDITION...A LOCALIZED
THREAT FOR TORNADOES COULD ALSO EVOLVE. SUCH A THREAT WOULD BE
GREATEST ON WRN/SRN FRINGE OF THE MOST CONCENTRATED ACTIVITY THIS
AFTN AND EVENING...AS VERY MOIST SWLY LLJ IMPINGES ON OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY SEGMENTS THAT BECOME STATIONARY AND ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE
WNWLY MEAN FLOW.
...UPR MS VLY...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING SE ON WRN SIDE OF DEPARTING LARGER SCALE
TROUGH MAY SUPPORT DIURNALLY-ENHANCED STORMS OVER MN SEWD INTO
NRN/ERN IA AND NWRN IL. COLD MID-LVL TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
35-40 KT NWLY MID-LVL FLOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SVR STORMS
WITH HAIL/LOCALLY DMGG WINDS...SIMILAR TO THE ACTIVITY THAT AFFECTED
PARTS OF THE UPR MS VLY YESTERDAY.
...CNTRL HI PLNS TO NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...
SCTD STORMS EXPECTED TO FORM LATE TODAY IN AREA OF WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW
IN ERN CO/SW NEB N OF STALLED FRONT. GIVEN 40S F SFC DEWPOINTS AND
BAND OF 40 KT WLY FLOW ALOFT...A FEW OF THESE COULD BECOME
SUSTAINED/POSSIBLY ROTATE AND POSE A THREAT FOR HAIL AND PERHAPS AN
ISOLD TORNADO.
ELSEWHERE...LEAD IMPULSE MOVING NEWD AROUND SE SIDE OF OFFSHORE LOW
MAY ENHANCE TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER PARTS OF ID AND NE ORE LATER
TODAY/EARLY TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE MAY TRAIN AND YIELD LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN GIVEN DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL SLY CLOUD-LAYER FLOW. OTHER
SCTD...POTENTIALLY STRONG DIURNAL STORMS COULD OCCUR EWD INTO SRN MT
AND NRN WY.
..CORFIDI/HURLBUT.. 05/31/2008
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Now we have almost daily severe weather events once this one ends. Here is how I see it:
Tomorrow (June 1) - MCS/derecho possible in the Southern Plains. Not a big tornado threat.
Monday (June 2) - Scattered severe in the Midwest.
Tuesday (June 3) - More intense severe threat in the Midwest, winds probably main threat.
Wednesday (June 4) - Scattered severe in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic.
Thursday (June 5) onward - Next tornado outbreak possible, Great Lakes and Upper Midwest.
Tomorrow (June 1) - MCS/derecho possible in the Southern Plains. Not a big tornado threat.
Monday (June 2) - Scattered severe in the Midwest.
Tuesday (June 3) - More intense severe threat in the Midwest, winds probably main threat.
Wednesday (June 4) - Scattered severe in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic.
Thursday (June 5) onward - Next tornado outbreak possible, Great Lakes and Upper Midwest.
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: 2008 Severe Weather Thread
SPC AC 011631
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1131 AM CDT SUN JUN 01 2008
VALID 011630Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN OK INTO AR...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST...
...ERN OK INTO THE MID SOUTH...
MCS CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE OVER NERN OK THIS MORNING WITH STRONG
HEATING AND ABUNDANT DCAPE ALONG AXIS EXTENDING ESEWD INTO CENTRAL
AR INVOF STALLED SURFACE OUTFLOW. ALTHOUGH LLJ FEEDING THIS SYSTEM
EARLY TODAY WILL WEAKEN AND REFOCUS WWD OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...SYSTEM APPEARS TOO ORGANIZED AT THIS POINT TO
WEAKEN DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. WIND DAMAGE WILL LIKELY
BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED/WIDESPREAD AS BOWING MCS TRACKS TOWARDS
CENTRAL AR THIS AFTERNOON AND WARRANTS HIGHER PROBABILITIES/MDT
CATEGORICAL RISK. HOW FAR E-SE THIS SYSTEM IS ABLE TO TRACK REMAINS
PROBLEMATIC. HOWEVER...MODEST NWLY FLOW ALOFT AND GENERAL E-W
ORIENTATION OF STALLED SURFACE FRONT INDICATE SYSTEM COULD PERSIST
WELL INTO THE MID SOUTH REGION BY THIS EVENING.
...TN VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST...
COMPOSITE SURFACE OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER STORMS IS WELL DEFINED ON
SURFACE ANALYSES AND VISIBLE IMAGERY FROM CENTRAL SC INTO CENTRAL
GA/NRN AL LATE THIS MORNING. INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN
SUPPRESSED AHEAD OF AND WEST OF THIS BOUNDARY FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...WHICH IS ALSO SHIFTING SWD FARTHER FROM STRONGER FLOW ALOFT.
AS CAP WEAKENS ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN MODEST DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD FROM PORTIONS OF
AL TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS AHEAD OF SURFACE OUTFLOW AND MCV NOTED ON
SAT IMAGERY MOVING ACROSS WRN SC THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR FARTHER NORTH NEARER MAIN SURFACE FRONT
PUSHING SLOWLY SSEWD INTO THE APPALACHIANS/KY. STRONGER CORES WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS.
...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
SURFACE LOW WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED NEAR THE CO FRONT RANGE/SERN
WY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SELY LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASING LATE IN THE
DAY/EVENING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
CREST BUILDING RIDGE AND INCREASE CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF WY/CO
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS ACTIVITY INTERACTS WITH 50+F
SURFACE DEW POINTS AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY JUST EAST OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...STORMS SHOULD INCREASE WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY SEVERE
THREAT...WITH ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT LIKELY INCREASING WHERE
STRONGER SELY H85 FLOW DEVELOPS NEAR FAR NERN CO/WRN NEB. ACTIVITY
SHOULD INCREASE/ORGANIZE INTO A CLUSTER/MCS INTO WRN NE/NERN CO/NWRN
KS THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT SPREADING GENERALLY
ESEWD OVERNIGHT.
...SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO KS...
YET ANOTHER STRONG/SEVERE MCS MAY DEVELOP OVER THIS REGION TONIGHT
AS SLY LLJ INTENSIFIES ACROSS NWRN TX/WRN OK. LOCATION IS A BIT
MORE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT...ALTHOUGH SUCCESSIVE OUTFLOWS WARRANT
POTENTIAL FOR A FARTHER SW INITIATION ZONE TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...RIDGING/WARMING ALOFT MAY COMBAT THIS. EXPECT DEVELOPMENT
ONCE AGAIN INTO NWRN OK/SRN KS WITH ASSOCIATED LARGE HAIL/HEAVY RAIN
THREAT NORTH OF EFFECTIVE FRONT/COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
...NRN RED RIVER VALLEY...
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SWD ACROSS ND/NRN MN WITH WRN END
STALLING OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER WEAK
VORT MAX SHIFTING SEWD ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS YIELD
MARGINAL MLCAPE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT REMAIN
QUITE COOL. AS CAP WEAKENS...STORMS SHOULD INCREASE NEAR THE FRONT
WITH POTENTIAL FOR HAIL/WIND NEAR OR JUST ABOVE SEVERE LIMITS INTO
THE EARLY EVENING.
..EVANS/SMITH.. 06/01/2008
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1638Z (12:38PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1131 AM CDT SUN JUN 01 2008
VALID 011630Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN OK INTO AR...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST...
...ERN OK INTO THE MID SOUTH...
MCS CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE OVER NERN OK THIS MORNING WITH STRONG
HEATING AND ABUNDANT DCAPE ALONG AXIS EXTENDING ESEWD INTO CENTRAL
AR INVOF STALLED SURFACE OUTFLOW. ALTHOUGH LLJ FEEDING THIS SYSTEM
EARLY TODAY WILL WEAKEN AND REFOCUS WWD OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...SYSTEM APPEARS TOO ORGANIZED AT THIS POINT TO
WEAKEN DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. WIND DAMAGE WILL LIKELY
BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED/WIDESPREAD AS BOWING MCS TRACKS TOWARDS
CENTRAL AR THIS AFTERNOON AND WARRANTS HIGHER PROBABILITIES/MDT
CATEGORICAL RISK. HOW FAR E-SE THIS SYSTEM IS ABLE TO TRACK REMAINS
PROBLEMATIC. HOWEVER...MODEST NWLY FLOW ALOFT AND GENERAL E-W
ORIENTATION OF STALLED SURFACE FRONT INDICATE SYSTEM COULD PERSIST
WELL INTO THE MID SOUTH REGION BY THIS EVENING.
...TN VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST...
COMPOSITE SURFACE OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER STORMS IS WELL DEFINED ON
SURFACE ANALYSES AND VISIBLE IMAGERY FROM CENTRAL SC INTO CENTRAL
GA/NRN AL LATE THIS MORNING. INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN
SUPPRESSED AHEAD OF AND WEST OF THIS BOUNDARY FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...WHICH IS ALSO SHIFTING SWD FARTHER FROM STRONGER FLOW ALOFT.
AS CAP WEAKENS ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN MODEST DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD FROM PORTIONS OF
AL TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS AHEAD OF SURFACE OUTFLOW AND MCV NOTED ON
SAT IMAGERY MOVING ACROSS WRN SC THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR FARTHER NORTH NEARER MAIN SURFACE FRONT
PUSHING SLOWLY SSEWD INTO THE APPALACHIANS/KY. STRONGER CORES WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS.
...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
SURFACE LOW WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED NEAR THE CO FRONT RANGE/SERN
WY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SELY LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASING LATE IN THE
DAY/EVENING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
CREST BUILDING RIDGE AND INCREASE CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF WY/CO
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS ACTIVITY INTERACTS WITH 50+F
SURFACE DEW POINTS AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY JUST EAST OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...STORMS SHOULD INCREASE WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY SEVERE
THREAT...WITH ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT LIKELY INCREASING WHERE
STRONGER SELY H85 FLOW DEVELOPS NEAR FAR NERN CO/WRN NEB. ACTIVITY
SHOULD INCREASE/ORGANIZE INTO A CLUSTER/MCS INTO WRN NE/NERN CO/NWRN
KS THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT SPREADING GENERALLY
ESEWD OVERNIGHT.
...SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO KS...
YET ANOTHER STRONG/SEVERE MCS MAY DEVELOP OVER THIS REGION TONIGHT
AS SLY LLJ INTENSIFIES ACROSS NWRN TX/WRN OK. LOCATION IS A BIT
MORE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT...ALTHOUGH SUCCESSIVE OUTFLOWS WARRANT
POTENTIAL FOR A FARTHER SW INITIATION ZONE TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...RIDGING/WARMING ALOFT MAY COMBAT THIS. EXPECT DEVELOPMENT
ONCE AGAIN INTO NWRN OK/SRN KS WITH ASSOCIATED LARGE HAIL/HEAVY RAIN
THREAT NORTH OF EFFECTIVE FRONT/COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
...NRN RED RIVER VALLEY...
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SWD ACROSS ND/NRN MN WITH WRN END
STALLING OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER WEAK
VORT MAX SHIFTING SEWD ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS YIELD
MARGINAL MLCAPE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT REMAIN
QUITE COOL. AS CAP WEAKENS...STORMS SHOULD INCREASE NEAR THE FRONT
WITH POTENTIAL FOR HAIL/WIND NEAR OR JUST ABOVE SEVERE LIMITS INTO
THE EARLY EVENING.
..EVANS/SMITH.. 06/01/2008
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1638Z (12:38PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
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I just looked quick because I was interested.
May had 14 moderate risk days.
May 1, 2, 6, 7, 10, 11, and 13 were MDT risk days. Then we had a break. Then, May 22, 23, 25, 26, 29, 30, and 31 were MDT risk days, with two of those seven days being HIGH risk. Overall, May had 551 tornado reports, with at least 230 being confirmed.
What a month.
May had 14 moderate risk days.
May 1, 2, 6, 7, 10, 11, and 13 were MDT risk days. Then we had a break. Then, May 22, 23, 25, 26, 29, 30, and 31 were MDT risk days, with two of those seven days being HIGH risk. Overall, May had 551 tornado reports, with at least 230 being confirmed.
What a month.
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re:
RL3AO wrote:I just looked quick because I was interested.
May had 14 moderate risk days.
May 1, 2, 6, 7, 10, 11, and 13 were MDT risk days. Then we had a break. Then, May 22, 23, 25, 26, 29, 30, and 31 were MDT risk days, with two of those seven days being HIGH risk. Overall, May had 551 tornado reports, with at least 230 being confirmed.
What a month.
Yep, it seemed to be cyclical: May 1 and 2 were very active, then a break from May 3 to 6 (the lone MDT day was mainly for hail), then it went wild up to mid-month (May 7 to 15), then quieted down a bit in the third week from May 16 to 21, then from May 22 onward was really active again.
It seemed we were in a tornado outbreak for over half the time in May. And the first week of June at least promises to be extremely active as well - with probably 5 or 6 MDT risk days in the first week (June 3 will likely be the 'quietest' - and that could be a high-end SLGT), and possibly 1 or 2 of those being HIGH risk (June 5 and 6).
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Seems like deja vu to me. The middle school (grades 6-8) in my town takes the entire school to Valley Fair Amusement Park on the last day of school. Last year that canceled because the the high risk day over Eastern MN and Wisconsin (June 6). Interestingly enough, Thursday is the last day of school again...and another big outbreak is setting up.
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Thundercloud
- Tropical Low
- Posts: 16
- Joined: Wed May 28, 2008 8:48 pm
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brunota2003
- S2K Supporter
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- Location: Stanton, KY...formerly Havelock, NC
- Contact:
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wbug1
Re: 2008 Severe Weather Thread
Cells in Kansas really strong and dropping tennis ball sized hail. Motion ESE although NWS says east.
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: 2008 Severe Weather Thread
SPC AC 021630
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT MON JUN 02 2008
VALID 021630Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN KS INTO PORTIONS OF SRN
MO/FAR NRN AR...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE
MID SOUTH...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF FL...
...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY...
INTENSE MCS WITH SEVERAL ELEVATED...HP-SUPERCELLS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE
OVER NERN KS THIS MORNING ALONG NOSE OF STRONG SWLY LLJ.
EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE SEWD INTO SERN KS/MO
THROUGH THE DAY...FED BY VERY UNSTABLE AIR OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS QUITE STRONG AND WOULD SUPPORT VERY
ORGANIZED STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...AS ACTIVITY PROGRESS SEWD.
VERY LARGE HAIL HAS BEEN PRIMARY THREAT THUS FAR...ALTHOUGH AS
HEATING OVERCOMES CAPPING ACROSS SWRN PORTIONS OF MO TORNADO
POTENTIAL MAY ALSO INCREASE /ESPECIALLY IF STORMS FAIL TO CONGEAL
ALONG A COMMON OUTFLOW/. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS POSSIBLE SINGULAR BOW ECHO SYSTEM
EVOLVES AND MCS ACCELERATES SEWD TOWARDS THE MS RIVER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. DESPITE QUESTIONS OF STORM MODE...APPEARS AREA WILL BE
QUITE ACTIVE AND SEVERE THREAT WARRANTS HIGHER PROBABILITIES AND
UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK AHEAD OF THIS MCS.
FARTHER W/NW AND LATER TODAY/TONIGHT...MODELS ARE NOT IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN OVERALL SEVERE SCENARIO. SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE
SRN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS WILL PROVIDE STRONG WLY FLOW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION AS UPPER LOW SHIFTS INTO THE
NRN ROCKIES. SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER FAR WRN KS/ERN
CO WITH MOIST UPSLOPE PERSISTING INTO WRN KS NWD INTO ERN MT.
CAPPING WILL INHIBIT STORMS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...HOWEVER INCREASE
IN STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH ASSOCIATED MYRIAD
OF SEVERE THREATS. ACTIVITY WILL ONCE AGAIN CONGEAL INTO ONE OR
MORE SEVERE MCSS DURING THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR ADDITIONAL MCS DEVELOPMENT INTO CENTRAL PLAINS EAST ALONG 70+ KT
LLJ. LIMITED CERTAINTY AT THIS POINT REGARDING EXACT TRACK/LOCATION
OF THESE SEVERE MCSS...BUT ANOTHER ENHANCED CORRIDOR OF SEVERE CAN
BE EXPECTED.
...FAR SRN GA INTO FL...
AIR MASS CONTINUES TO WARM AND DESTABILIZE OVER THE FL PENINSULA AND
SOUTHEAST GA...WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE NOW NEARING 90F. DEWPOINTS
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70F...YIELDING MUCAPE VALUES OVER
3000 J/KG. COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. MORNING RAOBS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS REGION SHOW RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR FOR A RISK OF
ORGANIZED MULTICELL OR EVEN SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL...ESPECIALLY OVER E-CENTRAL/NERN FL WHERE MID LEVEL COLD AIR
AND FLOW ALOFT IS A BIT MORE FAVORABLE. SOME DRY AIR ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALSO PROMOTE STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS IN STRONGER
CORES. DESPITE THE WEAKER FLOW OVER SRN FL...ACTIVE SEA/LAKE
BREEZES AND OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS SHOULD SUPPORT PULSE SEVERE
HAIL/WIND AND WILL INCLUDE THIS AREA IN CATEGORICAL SLGT AS WELL.
...ERN ID/MT/NRN WY...
ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RATHER LIMITED BY CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S.
STANDARDS...GIVEN FAIRLY STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE /PW .75- 1.00 IN/ WILL EXIST TO YIELD
MODERATE DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT
HIGH PLAINS TODAY. WITH THE REGION ALSO SUBJECT TO INCREASING LARGE
SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF WA UPR LOW...SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT TSTM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN ID/WRN MT BY AFTERNOON.
MODERATE...DEEPLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WSW FLOW WILL FAVOR STORM
ORGANIZATION INTO ONE OR TWO FORWARD-PROPAGATING BANDS. THESE MAY
YIELD DAMAGING WIND AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL AS THEY CONTINUE
GENERALLY E ACROSS SRN MT AND NRN WY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.
..EVANS/SMITH.. 06/02/2008
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1635Z (12:35PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT MON JUN 02 2008
VALID 021630Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN KS INTO PORTIONS OF SRN
MO/FAR NRN AR...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE
MID SOUTH...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF FL...
...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY...
INTENSE MCS WITH SEVERAL ELEVATED...HP-SUPERCELLS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE
OVER NERN KS THIS MORNING ALONG NOSE OF STRONG SWLY LLJ.
EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE SEWD INTO SERN KS/MO
THROUGH THE DAY...FED BY VERY UNSTABLE AIR OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS QUITE STRONG AND WOULD SUPPORT VERY
ORGANIZED STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...AS ACTIVITY PROGRESS SEWD.
VERY LARGE HAIL HAS BEEN PRIMARY THREAT THUS FAR...ALTHOUGH AS
HEATING OVERCOMES CAPPING ACROSS SWRN PORTIONS OF MO TORNADO
POTENTIAL MAY ALSO INCREASE /ESPECIALLY IF STORMS FAIL TO CONGEAL
ALONG A COMMON OUTFLOW/. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS POSSIBLE SINGULAR BOW ECHO SYSTEM
EVOLVES AND MCS ACCELERATES SEWD TOWARDS THE MS RIVER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. DESPITE QUESTIONS OF STORM MODE...APPEARS AREA WILL BE
QUITE ACTIVE AND SEVERE THREAT WARRANTS HIGHER PROBABILITIES AND
UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK AHEAD OF THIS MCS.
FARTHER W/NW AND LATER TODAY/TONIGHT...MODELS ARE NOT IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN OVERALL SEVERE SCENARIO. SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE
SRN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS WILL PROVIDE STRONG WLY FLOW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION AS UPPER LOW SHIFTS INTO THE
NRN ROCKIES. SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER FAR WRN KS/ERN
CO WITH MOIST UPSLOPE PERSISTING INTO WRN KS NWD INTO ERN MT.
CAPPING WILL INHIBIT STORMS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...HOWEVER INCREASE
IN STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH ASSOCIATED MYRIAD
OF SEVERE THREATS. ACTIVITY WILL ONCE AGAIN CONGEAL INTO ONE OR
MORE SEVERE MCSS DURING THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR ADDITIONAL MCS DEVELOPMENT INTO CENTRAL PLAINS EAST ALONG 70+ KT
LLJ. LIMITED CERTAINTY AT THIS POINT REGARDING EXACT TRACK/LOCATION
OF THESE SEVERE MCSS...BUT ANOTHER ENHANCED CORRIDOR OF SEVERE CAN
BE EXPECTED.
...FAR SRN GA INTO FL...
AIR MASS CONTINUES TO WARM AND DESTABILIZE OVER THE FL PENINSULA AND
SOUTHEAST GA...WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE NOW NEARING 90F. DEWPOINTS
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70F...YIELDING MUCAPE VALUES OVER
3000 J/KG. COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. MORNING RAOBS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS REGION SHOW RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR FOR A RISK OF
ORGANIZED MULTICELL OR EVEN SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL...ESPECIALLY OVER E-CENTRAL/NERN FL WHERE MID LEVEL COLD AIR
AND FLOW ALOFT IS A BIT MORE FAVORABLE. SOME DRY AIR ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALSO PROMOTE STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS IN STRONGER
CORES. DESPITE THE WEAKER FLOW OVER SRN FL...ACTIVE SEA/LAKE
BREEZES AND OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS SHOULD SUPPORT PULSE SEVERE
HAIL/WIND AND WILL INCLUDE THIS AREA IN CATEGORICAL SLGT AS WELL.
...ERN ID/MT/NRN WY...
ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RATHER LIMITED BY CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S.
STANDARDS...GIVEN FAIRLY STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE /PW .75- 1.00 IN/ WILL EXIST TO YIELD
MODERATE DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT
HIGH PLAINS TODAY. WITH THE REGION ALSO SUBJECT TO INCREASING LARGE
SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF WA UPR LOW...SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT TSTM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN ID/WRN MT BY AFTERNOON.
MODERATE...DEEPLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WSW FLOW WILL FAVOR STORM
ORGANIZATION INTO ONE OR TWO FORWARD-PROPAGATING BANDS. THESE MAY
YIELD DAMAGING WIND AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL AS THEY CONTINUE
GENERALLY E ACROSS SRN MT AND NRN WY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.
..EVANS/SMITH.. 06/02/2008
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1635Z (12:35PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
0 likes
-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: 2008 Severe Weather Thread
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
KSC107-121-021700-
/O.NEW.KEAX.SV.W.0101.080602T1613Z-080602T1700Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1113 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2008
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
LINN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS
SOUTHERN MIAMI COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS
* UNTIL NOON CDT
* AT 1112 AM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING BASEBALL SIZE HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 80 MPH. ACTIVATION OF LOCAL
WARNING SYSTEMS IS RECOMMENDED. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 13 MILES WEST OF OSAWATOMIE TO 13 MILES WEST OF
PARKER TO 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PARKER...AND MOVING EAST AT 32 MPH.
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
OSAWATOMIE AND PARKER BY 1135 AM CDT.
FONTANA AND MOUND CITY BY 1150 AM CDT.
LA CYGNE BY NOON CDT.
THE TOWNS OF BEAGLE AND NEW LANCASTER ARE ALSO IN THE PATH OF THESE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW
INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS!
LAT...LON 3811 9509 3857 9506 3852 9465 3823 9470
3803 9477
TIME...MOT...LOC 1613Z 287DEG 28KT 3850 9517 3836 9523
3822 9515
$$
MJ
KSC107-121-021700-
/O.NEW.KEAX.SV.W.0101.080602T1613Z-080602T1700Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1113 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2008
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
LINN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS
SOUTHERN MIAMI COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS
* UNTIL NOON CDT
* AT 1112 AM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING BASEBALL SIZE HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 80 MPH. ACTIVATION OF LOCAL
WARNING SYSTEMS IS RECOMMENDED. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 13 MILES WEST OF OSAWATOMIE TO 13 MILES WEST OF
PARKER TO 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PARKER...AND MOVING EAST AT 32 MPH.
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
OSAWATOMIE AND PARKER BY 1135 AM CDT.
FONTANA AND MOUND CITY BY 1150 AM CDT.
LA CYGNE BY NOON CDT.
THE TOWNS OF BEAGLE AND NEW LANCASTER ARE ALSO IN THE PATH OF THESE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW
INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS!
LAT...LON 3811 9509 3857 9506 3852 9465 3823 9470
3803 9477
TIME...MOT...LOC 1613Z 287DEG 28KT 3850 9517 3836 9523
3822 9515
$$
MJ
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SPC AC 021630
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT MON JUN 02 2008
VALID 021630Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN KS INTO PORTIONS OF SRN
MO/FAR NRN AR...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE
MID SOUTH...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF FL...
...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY...
INTENSE MCS WITH SEVERAL ELEVATED...HP-SUPERCELLS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE
OVER NERN KS THIS MORNING ALONG NOSE OF STRONG SWLY LLJ.
EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE SEWD INTO SERN KS/MO
THROUGH THE DAY...FED BY VERY UNSTABLE AIR OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS QUITE STRONG AND WOULD SUPPORT VERY
ORGANIZED STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...AS ACTIVITY PROGRESS SEWD.
VERY LARGE HAIL HAS BEEN PRIMARY THREAT THUS FAR...ALTHOUGH AS
HEATING OVERCOMES CAPPING ACROSS SWRN PORTIONS OF MO TORNADO
POTENTIAL MAY ALSO INCREASE /ESPECIALLY IF STORMS FAIL TO CONGEAL
ALONG A COMMON OUTFLOW/. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS POSSIBLE SINGULAR BOW ECHO SYSTEM
EVOLVES AND MCS ACCELERATES SEWD TOWARDS THE MS RIVER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. DESPITE QUESTIONS OF STORM MODE...APPEARS AREA WILL BE
QUITE ACTIVE AND SEVERE THREAT WARRANTS HIGHER PROBABILITIES AND
UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK AHEAD OF THIS MCS.
FARTHER W/NW AND LATER TODAY/TONIGHT...MODELS ARE NOT IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN OVERALL SEVERE SCENARIO. SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE
SRN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS WILL PROVIDE STRONG WLY FLOW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION AS UPPER LOW SHIFTS INTO THE
NRN ROCKIES. SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER FAR WRN KS/ERN
CO WITH MOIST UPSLOPE PERSISTING INTO WRN KS NWD INTO ERN MT.
CAPPING WILL INHIBIT STORMS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...HOWEVER INCREASE
IN STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH ASSOCIATED MYRIAD
OF SEVERE THREATS. ACTIVITY WILL ONCE AGAIN CONGEAL INTO ONE OR
MORE SEVERE MCSS DURING THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR ADDITIONAL MCS DEVELOPMENT INTO CENTRAL PLAINS EAST ALONG 70+ KT
LLJ. LIMITED CERTAINTY AT THIS POINT REGARDING EXACT TRACK/LOCATION
OF THESE SEVERE MCSS...BUT ANOTHER ENHANCED CORRIDOR OF SEVERE CAN
BE EXPECTED.
...FAR SRN GA INTO FL...
AIR MASS CONTINUES TO WARM AND DESTABILIZE OVER THE FL PENINSULA AND
SOUTHEAST GA...WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE NOW NEARING 90F. DEWPOINTS
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70F...YIELDING MUCAPE VALUES OVER
3000 J/KG. COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. MORNING RAOBS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS REGION SHOW RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR FOR A RISK OF
ORGANIZED MULTICELL OR EVEN SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL...ESPECIALLY OVER E-CENTRAL/NERN FL WHERE MID LEVEL COLD AIR
AND FLOW ALOFT IS A BIT MORE FAVORABLE. SOME DRY AIR ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALSO PROMOTE STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS IN STRONGER
CORES. DESPITE THE WEAKER FLOW OVER SRN FL...ACTIVE SEA/LAKE
BREEZES AND OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS SHOULD SUPPORT PULSE SEVERE
HAIL/WIND AND WILL INCLUDE THIS AREA IN CATEGORICAL SLGT AS WELL.
...ERN ID/MT/NRN WY...
ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RATHER LIMITED BY CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S.
STANDARDS...GIVEN FAIRLY STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE /PW .75- 1.00 IN/ WILL EXIST TO YIELD
MODERATE DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT
HIGH PLAINS TODAY. WITH THE REGION ALSO SUBJECT TO INCREASING LARGE
SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF WA UPR LOW...SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT TSTM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN ID/WRN MT BY AFTERNOON.
MODERATE...DEEPLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WSW FLOW WILL FAVOR STORM
ORGANIZATION INTO ONE OR TWO FORWARD-PROPAGATING BANDS. THESE MAY
YIELD DAMAGING WIND AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL AS THEY CONTINUE
GENERALLY E ACROSS SRN MT AND NRN WY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.
..EVANS/SMITH.. 06/02/2008
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT MON JUN 02 2008
VALID 021630Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN KS INTO PORTIONS OF SRN
MO/FAR NRN AR...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE
MID SOUTH...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF FL...
...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY...
INTENSE MCS WITH SEVERAL ELEVATED...HP-SUPERCELLS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE
OVER NERN KS THIS MORNING ALONG NOSE OF STRONG SWLY LLJ.
EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE SEWD INTO SERN KS/MO
THROUGH THE DAY...FED BY VERY UNSTABLE AIR OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS QUITE STRONG AND WOULD SUPPORT VERY
ORGANIZED STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...AS ACTIVITY PROGRESS SEWD.
VERY LARGE HAIL HAS BEEN PRIMARY THREAT THUS FAR...ALTHOUGH AS
HEATING OVERCOMES CAPPING ACROSS SWRN PORTIONS OF MO TORNADO
POTENTIAL MAY ALSO INCREASE /ESPECIALLY IF STORMS FAIL TO CONGEAL
ALONG A COMMON OUTFLOW/. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS POSSIBLE SINGULAR BOW ECHO SYSTEM
EVOLVES AND MCS ACCELERATES SEWD TOWARDS THE MS RIVER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. DESPITE QUESTIONS OF STORM MODE...APPEARS AREA WILL BE
QUITE ACTIVE AND SEVERE THREAT WARRANTS HIGHER PROBABILITIES AND
UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK AHEAD OF THIS MCS.
FARTHER W/NW AND LATER TODAY/TONIGHT...MODELS ARE NOT IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN OVERALL SEVERE SCENARIO. SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE
SRN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS WILL PROVIDE STRONG WLY FLOW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION AS UPPER LOW SHIFTS INTO THE
NRN ROCKIES. SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER FAR WRN KS/ERN
CO WITH MOIST UPSLOPE PERSISTING INTO WRN KS NWD INTO ERN MT.
CAPPING WILL INHIBIT STORMS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...HOWEVER INCREASE
IN STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH ASSOCIATED MYRIAD
OF SEVERE THREATS. ACTIVITY WILL ONCE AGAIN CONGEAL INTO ONE OR
MORE SEVERE MCSS DURING THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR ADDITIONAL MCS DEVELOPMENT INTO CENTRAL PLAINS EAST ALONG 70+ KT
LLJ. LIMITED CERTAINTY AT THIS POINT REGARDING EXACT TRACK/LOCATION
OF THESE SEVERE MCSS...BUT ANOTHER ENHANCED CORRIDOR OF SEVERE CAN
BE EXPECTED.
...FAR SRN GA INTO FL...
AIR MASS CONTINUES TO WARM AND DESTABILIZE OVER THE FL PENINSULA AND
SOUTHEAST GA...WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE NOW NEARING 90F. DEWPOINTS
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70F...YIELDING MUCAPE VALUES OVER
3000 J/KG. COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. MORNING RAOBS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS REGION SHOW RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR FOR A RISK OF
ORGANIZED MULTICELL OR EVEN SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL...ESPECIALLY OVER E-CENTRAL/NERN FL WHERE MID LEVEL COLD AIR
AND FLOW ALOFT IS A BIT MORE FAVORABLE. SOME DRY AIR ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALSO PROMOTE STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS IN STRONGER
CORES. DESPITE THE WEAKER FLOW OVER SRN FL...ACTIVE SEA/LAKE
BREEZES AND OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS SHOULD SUPPORT PULSE SEVERE
HAIL/WIND AND WILL INCLUDE THIS AREA IN CATEGORICAL SLGT AS WELL.
...ERN ID/MT/NRN WY...
ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RATHER LIMITED BY CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S.
STANDARDS...GIVEN FAIRLY STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE /PW .75- 1.00 IN/ WILL EXIST TO YIELD
MODERATE DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT
HIGH PLAINS TODAY. WITH THE REGION ALSO SUBJECT TO INCREASING LARGE
SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF WA UPR LOW...SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT TSTM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN ID/WRN MT BY AFTERNOON.
MODERATE...DEEPLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WSW FLOW WILL FAVOR STORM
ORGANIZATION INTO ONE OR TWO FORWARD-PROPAGATING BANDS. THESE MAY
YIELD DAMAGING WIND AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL AS THEY CONTINUE
GENERALLY E ACROSS SRN MT AND NRN WY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.
..EVANS/SMITH.. 06/02/2008
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
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