More Tropical Developement - HOU-GAL Bear Watch for next Sun

[southerngale]

I don't get the slower than usual season comment, either. Seems like a lot of activity for SE TX lately! 2 hurricanes, 2 years apart... Rita and Humberto, with Rita obviously being a million times worse for us than Humberto, but for the ones who lost their homes and or sustained a lot of damage from Humberto, they might have a different opinion. My parents were without electricity for many days from Humberto, but I only lost power briefly. With Rita, it was weeks, and life-changing damage for many folks. Before that, we had severe flooding from TS Allison in 2001 and Hurricane Bonnie in 1986... seems quite active for SE TX the past few years. We've seen the worst hurricane people in this area have ever seen.

As for a drought, while we're drier than we have been in a few years, after nearly 2 years of nothing but rain, I think drought conditions are pretty spotty. Some locations have received a lot of rain, while others very little. I guess it would be fairly average where I am for May.

[Ed Mahmoud]

0.02 inches for May at GLS is pretty darned dry, and its been awfully darned dry around here.

I'm not the one saying it has been slow. Erin was just last year, and while Humberto didn't do anything here once it was named, it came close. I'm just thinking the super-mega-drought producing high is likely to protect Texas, but, of course, just takes one transient trough moving by, and the troughs start digging again pretty far South by September before the season is over here, so anything can happen.


October is essentially season over, with Jerry in 1989 the only October Texas hurricane in sixty years. (But, IIRC, a borderline Cat 2/Cat 3 hit near Matagorda the first week of October in the mid/late 1940s, so even when the season is essentially over, it isn't absolutely over).

[gatorcane]

I'm going to bump this bear watch given 91E now in the EPAC and the ridge over Texas/GOM potentially breaking down later this week allowing this area to creep north into the BOC.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I'm going to bump this bear watch given 91E now in the EPAC and the ridge over Texas/GOM potentially breaking down later this week allowing this area to creep north into the BOC.

This may bear watching for the Central and Eastern Gulf, but in my unprofessional opinion, the bear that needs watching in Texas is the

DROUGHT BEAR!

[gatorcane]

I am currently give 91E a 75% chance of becoming at least a tropical depression with 24 hours

[Ed Mahmoud]

I am currently give 91E a 75% chance of becoming at least a tropical depression with 24 hours

It looks pretty good, and Boris is a possibility, and Boris has a shot at becoming Bertha, but even if the trough draws it to the Gulf, it'll then bend it towards Florida.

[gatorcane]

I am currently give 91E a 75% chance of becoming at least a tropical depression with 24 hours

It looks pretty good, and Boris is a possibility, and Boris has a shot at becoming Bertha, but even if the trough draws it to the Gulf, it'll then bend it towards Florida.

I agree, its far out but a bend towards the eastern GOM in response to a deepening trough by end of week is certainly not out of the question later this week.....

Climatology would favor this scenario also as the Eastern GOM is the most favored area for June tropical systems.

[gatorcane]

This WV shows the trough starting to develop from a system that is approaching the Pacific Northwest. It is this trough that has the greatest potential for breaking down the GOM ridge later this week:

[Frank2]

Very rare for anything in the EPAC to cross the isthmus and become a Gulf of Mexico system - it's only happened 2 or 3 times in the past 50 or so years...

[KWT]

Yep Frank though interestingly we've seen one sort of cross-over I suppose just recently, so the synotpic set-up does appear to support it right now as nothing appears to have changed really in terms of conditions.

As Arthur proved we don't need any of the circulation to survive, just need the energy to be able to make the crossing to have a chance, of course whether or not it makes it into the gulf is another matter of course, if it develops at all!

[Ed Mahmoud]

Unrelated to anything occuring now, at hour 126 the 12Z GFS miraculously creates a 850 mb vort max West of Cuba, and aims it off towards Louisiana.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2008060212&field=850mb+Vorticity&hour=Animation




I do mean miraculous, from nothing to something.

[Praxus]

Hmm yeah that just pops right outta nowhere. Be interesting to see if it still shows on the next run...

[KWT]

Its been showing it for the last few runs however yep it does look a little suspect...however I don't think this is where the main risk is going to be I think we need to watch whatever comes up from the EPAC more, though if thats the case not sure where the main risk would be, far too early to know!

[srainhoutx]

Snipets fro KHGX afternoon AFD...

THE MARINE REGION
MAY SEE ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION BUT POPS ARE QUITE LOW. THE ECMWF
AND GFS HOWEVER BOTH INDICATE DEEPENING MOIST LAYER POSSIBLY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. INTERESTINGLY THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWS A TUTT TRAVERSING THE
NORTHERN GULF THIS COMING WEEKEND REACHING OUR REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK. GFS SHOWS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE WITH AN INVERTED UPPER
TROUGH JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION DURING THE SAME PERIOD. WE SHALL
SEE WHAT LATER MODEL RUNS WILL INDICATE. 37


And KBRO...

AT THE SAME TIME...PLENTY OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE INITIALLY IN THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN...BUT SOME OF THIS WILL LIKELY EJECT INTO THE GULF
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHERE IT GOES AND
WHETHER A SURFACE REFLECTION CAN SPIN UP IS ANYONE`S GUESS...AND
WE`LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THROUGH THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

http://www.weather.gov/view/prodsByStat ... discussion

It will be interesting to see if we can finally get some tropical moisture to move in and give us some relief.

[JessRomero]

WE sure need it here!! Hope we get some relief!

[ROCK]

I am currently give 91E a 75% chance of becoming at least a tropical depression with 24 hours

It looks pretty good, and Boris is a possibility, and Boris has a shot at becoming Bertha, but even if the trough draws it to the Gulf, it'll then bend it towards Florida.

An exiting trof is usually replaced by high pressure or so I have been told. I would wait before making predictions on where something will go once in the GOM until something is actually in the GOM....

And yes we ALL know that the upper Texas coast is in a drought and will remain that way through out the hurricane season.

[Ad Novoxium]

I am currently give 91E a 75% chance of becoming at least a tropical depression with 24 hours

It looks pretty good, and Boris is a possibility, and Boris has a shot at becoming Bertha, but even if the trough draws it to the Gulf, it'll then bend it towards Florida.

Tropical Storm Alma-Arthur-Boris-Bertha...I like the sound of it. It's...synchronicity.

[wxman57]

New model runs no longer show anything moving into Texas this weekend. If you remember 5-10 days before Arthur, the GFS and EC were bringing Arthur north toward Texas (then Florida). Then they backed off and kept the moisture down south. Models do show a trof in the Rockies, so maybe we can get some showers later in the week.

[Frank2]

Yes, and is why long-range forecasts have a dream (or nightmare) like quality, since they usually don't reflect what is actually happening, but, are somewhat based on truth...

The NWS needs to revise their AFD standards - they should not allow forecaster comments such as was seen over this past weekend, when several WSO's mentioned a possible tropical system in the Gulf for this weekend, based on those same dream-like scenarios...

[Evil Jeremy]

While the models do not show any tropical cyclone forming within the next week now, they continue to show generally low pressures and disturbed weather around central america. Nothing to worry about in the short term, but hopefully, with the ridge forecasted to break down, Florida will get the rain that we really need, not some pop up showers.