EPAC: Invest 91E - Southern México
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Yep indeed and there is clearly a good circulation, I'm expecting it to be upgraded soon...
also don't know why the center of that development warning is that far west, does appear that the circulation center is right on the western extent!
Finally models may not be able to have a good indication of the remains of Arthur to the north, still has a circulation and thus is probably helping to put an easterly component into the tracck of 91E compared with what some of the models are suggesting IMO.
also don't know why the center of that development warning is that far west, does appear that the circulation center is right on the western extent!
Finally models may not be able to have a good indication of the remains of Arthur to the north, still has a circulation and thus is probably helping to put an easterly component into the tracck of 91E compared with what some of the models are suggesting IMO.
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Re: EPAC: Invest 91E - Gulf of Tehuantepec
NRL page still calls it 91E, so I'd hazard a guess, no upgrade.
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Re: EPAC: Invest 91E - Gulf of Tehuantepec
91E looks on the verge of being upgraded. At its current movement it should be inland later tonight. I'm betting the remnants of Arthur regenerates if it makes it to the BOC.....MGC
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TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON JUN 02 2008
WEAK CUT OFF CYCLONIC VORTEX OVER BAY OF CAMPECHE PRODUCING
DIFFLUENT FLOW IN COMBINATION WITH CENTRAL MEXICO RIDGE
ENHANCING DEEP CONVECTION OVER REMNANTS OF ARTHUR AND OVER GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC...WHERE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRES CENTER IS
EXPECTED WITHIN NEXT 36-48 HRS. AREA CONTINUES UNDER HEAVY
PRECIPITATION.
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON JUN 02 2008
WEAK CUT OFF CYCLONIC VORTEX OVER BAY OF CAMPECHE PRODUCING
DIFFLUENT FLOW IN COMBINATION WITH CENTRAL MEXICO RIDGE
ENHANCING DEEP CONVECTION OVER REMNANTS OF ARTHUR AND OVER GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC...WHERE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRES CENTER IS
EXPECTED WITHIN NEXT 36-48 HRS. AREA CONTINUES UNDER HEAVY
PRECIPITATION.
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fact, its a really messy set-up alright, one that has already given 2 tropical storms mind you so at least there is some end product to all this I suppose.
I think 91E probably has a good 12-24hrs over water at the moment given its really only drifting its way towards land at the moment but I agree it does seem to be on the verge.
I think 91E probably has a good 12-24hrs over water at the moment given its really only drifting its way towards land at the moment but I agree it does seem to be on the verge.
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Re: EPAC: Invest 91E - Gulf of Tehuantepec
MGC wrote:91E looks on the verge of being upgraded. At its current movement it should be inland later tonight. I'm betting the remnants of Arthur regenerates if it makes it to the BOC.....MGC
His posts always reminds me of Shatners character on Boston Legal when he finishes all his sentences with "...Denny Crane"
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Re: EPAC: Invest 91E - Gulf of Tehuantepec
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rgb.htmlDistinct low-cloud cyclonic motion centering on gatorcane's eye-like feature. Surface winds, insofar as we have them, are cyclonic but very weak.
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Re: EPAC: Invest 91E - Gulf of Tehuantepec
AXPZ20 KNHC 022213
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON JUN 02 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PRES CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14N94W 1007 MB
IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER THAT COVERS
THE ERN PACIFIC WATERS AND LAND AREAS FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN
91W-98W. THIS AREA HAS BECOME ORGANIZED DURING THE DAY...AND
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
A PRETTY WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER WITH THIS SYSTEM. IR
IMAGERY DEPICTS SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER OVER THE SW QUADRANT...AND WITHIN
120 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE SE AND S QUADRANTS. IF NEW CONVECTION
DEVELOPS AROUND THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE CENTER THE SYSTEM WOULD
THEN INTENSIFY. IT IS FORECAST TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER
EL SALVADOR...GUATEMALA AND THE SE PORTION OF MEXICO DURING THE
NEXT 48 HRS.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2213.shtml?
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON JUN 02 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PRES CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14N94W 1007 MB
IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER THAT COVERS
THE ERN PACIFIC WATERS AND LAND AREAS FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN
91W-98W. THIS AREA HAS BECOME ORGANIZED DURING THE DAY...AND
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
A PRETTY WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER WITH THIS SYSTEM. IR
IMAGERY DEPICTS SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER OVER THE SW QUADRANT...AND WITHIN
120 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE SE AND S QUADRANTS. IF NEW CONVECTION
DEVELOPS AROUND THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE CENTER THE SYSTEM WOULD
THEN INTENSIFY. IT IS FORECAST TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER
EL SALVADOR...GUATEMALA AND THE SE PORTION OF MEXICO DURING THE
NEXT 48 HRS.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2213.shtml?
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Re:
Chacor wrote:Waiting for the 00z ATCF now...
I don't think they are going to upgrade tonight, without a more convection around the center. It doesn't look as good as it did earlier in the day.
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