June 4-7: Severe wx (Omaha tornado update)

[CrazyC83]

http://www.canadianweather.org/models/gfs.shtml

[liveweatherman]

Thursday seems to be a rough thunderstorm activity over the Midwest and Central Plain areas..Severe weather sets to pound Midwest...


DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
VALID 051200Z - 101200Z

...DISCUSSION...

...D4 /THU JUN 5TH/...

DESPITE SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN CONFIGURATION...THE ECMWF AND GFS
REMAIN CONSISTENT IN PROGRESSING A DYNAMIC UPPER TROUGH NEWD THROUGH
THE CNTRL U.S. PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP NNEWD FROM THE
CNTRL PLAINS INTO UPPER MS VALLEY WITH SECONDARY LOW FORMATION OVER
THE CNTRL OR SRN PLAINS. AIR MASS TO THE S OF SYSTEM WARM FRONT AND
E OF TRAILING COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO BECOME MOIST AND
UNSTABLE. THIS INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND
DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK FROM PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY SWD
INTO SRN PLAINS.

Thunderstorm Forecast On Thursday
MIDWEST


CENTRAL PLAINS

[Bunkertor]

http://www.canadianweather.org/models/gfs.shtml

Thanks you - i bookmarked this site.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Joe Bastardi was impressed during his 'Big Dog' video with severe weather potential with a April/May type sub 990 mb storm working with June temps and dewpoints. He thinks the Day 3 Plains/Midwest threat area will be upgraded to MODERATE, maybe even HIGH

[KWT]

Very interesting to hear that Ed, I agree no reason why it won't be upped to a moderate at least, though obviously high risks aren't all that common really but we will have to see...does look like yet another outbreak is going to occur though, very good tornado chasing season.

[Bunkertor]

Joe Bastardi was impressed during his 'Big Dog' video with severe weather potential with a April/May type sub 990 mb storm working with June temps and dewpoints. He thinks the Day 3 Plains/Midwest threat area will be upgraded to MODERATE, maybe even HIGH

Could you, please, hand out a link to his forcast ?

I don´t really trust this guys from private weather channs. They have to look for clicks on their sites. But anyway, i´d be interesed in what hes going to tell us.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Joe Bastardi was impressed during his 'Big Dog' video with severe weather potential with a April/May type sub 990 mb storm working with June temps and dewpoints. He thinks the Day 3 Plains/Midwest threat area will be upgraded to MODERATE, maybe even HIGH

Could you, please, hand out a link to his forcast ?

I don´t really trust this guys from private weather channs. They have to look for clicks on their sites. But anyway, i´d be interesed in what hes going to tell us.

His videos cost about $100 US per year.


http://proa.accuweather.com

[Bunkertor]

Could you, please, hand out a link to his forcast ?

I don´t really trust this guys from private weather channs. They have to look for clicks on their sites. But anyway, i´d be interesed in what hes going to tell us.

His videos cost about $100 US per year.


http://proa.accuweather.com

Thanks for linking, but in this case i´ll stay loyal to the SPC.

[CrazyC83]

Joe Bastardi was impressed during his 'Big Dog' video with severe weather potential with a April/May type sub 990 mb storm working with June temps and dewpoints. He thinks the Day 3 Plains/Midwest threat area will be upgraded to MODERATE, maybe even HIGH

The SPC will never go high risk on day 3.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Joe Bastardi was impressed during his 'Big Dog' video with severe weather potential with a April/May type sub 990 mb storm working with June temps and dewpoints. He thinks the Day 3 Plains/Midwest threat area will be upgraded to MODERATE, maybe even HIGH

The SPC will never go high risk on day 3.

I know that. By the probabilities they have, and the hatching, they are hinting at a moderate, at least.

[Ed Mahmoud]

This is usually a bad sign, as far as severe weather goes. A 50 knot 850 mb jet. In June, with the Gulf wide open.

[KWT]

Yep your going to have good moisture flwoing up from the gulf in that set-up, it certainly does look like we could get yet another decent set-up for storm chasers.

[CrazyC83]

NWS Milwaukee picking up on the threat:

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?sit ... suedby=MKX

.LONG TERM.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY/.

HI RES ECMWF AND GFS NOW SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT ON AMPLITUDE AND
TIMING OF NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH UPPER
MIDWEST AND WESTERN GTLAKES EARLY IN PERIOD. NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROUGH EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY...WITH STRONG SPEED SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY RESULTING
IN A THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN
THREAT. IT HAS BEEN AWHILE SINCE A STRONG SQUALL LINE AND SHELF
CLOUD SWEPT THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BUT CAN NOT GET MY HOPES UP
TOO HIGH SINCE THIS IS STILL FOUR DAYS AWAY. WITH CONCENSUS FROM
CANADIAN AND UKMT MODELS...WILL BUMP UP TO LIKELY WORDING FOR NOW.
LINE OF STORMS MAY NOT EXIT EASTERN AREAS UNTIL EVENING BUT FOR NOW
WILL AVOID LIKELY WORDING IN TWO PERIODS. 500MB ANALOGS VALID FRIDAY
EVENING INTERESTINGLY MATCHES UP WELL WITH SETUP WHICH PRODUCED
BARNEVELD TORNADO 24 YEARS AGO!

CONFIDENCE IN EARLY PERIODS OF EXTENDED EVAPORATES ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. ECMWF AND GFS SHOWING LARGE DESCREPANCIES AS TO LOCATION OF
LINGERING BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS WESTERN GTLAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST
AND ITS RELATION TO EXTENSION OF SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE
SOUTH. GFS LEANING TOWARD DRIER SCENARIO WITH BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
RIDGE RIDER POTENTIAL REMAINING TO THE NORTHWEST OF SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN WHILE HI RES ECWMF FLATTER WITH HIGHER THREAT OF MCS
OCCURRENCE OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. USUALLY RELIABLE HI RES ECWMF
SHOWING LITTLE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY FOR THIS PERIOD...WHILE GFS
SHOWING A BIT MORE AGREEMENT. CANADIAN AND UKMT ALSO IN THE GFS
CAMP SO WL LEAN IN THIS DIRECTION WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LOW
POPS IF ANY SUN AND MON.

GFS 5 DAY 500MB MEANS SHOW LARGE NEGATIVE ANOMOLY ASSOCIATED WITH
UPSTREAM LONG WAVE TROUGH FOR MUCH OF THIS COMING WEEK OVER WESTERN
CONUS...WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW. TROFFING BEGINS TO WEAKEN BY
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. END RESULT IS CONTINUED UNSETTLED
WITH TEMPERATURES VARYING BUT AVERAGING AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...

CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF CONVECTION LOW FOR AREA TAFS THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY. IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER...INITIAL AREA OF RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDER OVER NORTHERN TO EAST CENTRAL IOWA SHOULD MOVE INTO KMSN BY
00Z TUESDAY...AND KMKE AND KENW BY 02Z TUESDAY. WOULD EXPECT MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH THUNDER TO MOVE INTO THE AREA MAINLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO TUESDAY...WITH BEST LOW TO
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE FIELDS. SOME IFR VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER DOWNPOURS DURING THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS MAY
PEEK BACK IN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS BEST LIFT PUSHES EAST OF THE
AREA.

[Bunkertor]

2005 and 2006 Tornado-overall numbers have or nearly have been tied, yet. 2007 will be tied this week !

Thats´s simply unrealistic.

[wx247]

NWS in Tulsa is now hitting the wording in their HWO very hard:

ALL MODELS AGREE THAT A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WILL
OCCUR IN THE PLAINS THURSDAY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE INTER MOUNTAIN
REGION INTO THE PLAINS. THE DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM LOOKS MORE
LIKE APRIL THAN EARLY JUNE. FOR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS...A SEVERE EVENT COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE MORE LIKELY TIME FRAME WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. AMPLE INSTABILITY AND EXTREME WIND
PROFILES SUGGEST TORNADOES AND WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER.
SHOULD STORMS CONGEAL INTO AN MCS...FLASH FLOODING MAY BE A
PROBLEM.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
EMERGENCY MANAGERS NEED TO PLAN FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
A MAJOR EVENT.

[CrazyC83]

Hinting at a MDT for tomorrow:

SPC AC 030600

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT TUE JUN 03 2008

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL
PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...OH VALLEY AND
MID-ATLANTIC...

...CNTRL PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WRN STATES TUESDAY NIGHT IS FORECAST
TO AMPLIFY WITH A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY MOVING SEWD INTO
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AN IMPRESSIVE 75 TO 90 KT MID-LEVEL JET WILL
ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WITH THE EXIT REGION EJECTING NEWD
ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY. AT THE SFC...A
STRONG LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES SEWD
ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE IN
THE AFTERNOON NORTH OF THE LOW ALONG A COLD FRONT AND WARM FRONT
EXTENDING EWD ACROSS SRN NEB. MODEL FORECASTS ARE SOMEWHAT IN
AGREEMENT MOVING AN MCS EWD ACROSS THE MID-MO VALLEY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AND STRONG
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON PERSISTING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK MAY BECOME
NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION IN LATER OUTLOOKS ONCE CERTAINTY
INCREASES.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS ERN NEB WEDNESDAY EVENING SHOW 0-6 KM
SHEAR VALUES IN THE 60 TO 75 KT RANGE WITH THE NAM...NAMKF AND GFS
ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT. FOR THIS REASON...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
SUPERCELLS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE EWD AS THE MCS DEVELOPS. IN
ADDITION...A WELL-FOCUSED 55 TO 70 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING SUGGESTING
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR TORNADOES. MODEL FORECASTS
ALSO SHOW A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXTENDING NEWD INTO
THE CNTRL PLAINS AND THIS SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL
WILL EXIST WITH THE MORE INTENSE SUPERCELLS. DUE TO THE WELL-FOCUSED
LOW-LEVEL JET...AN ORGANIZED BOWING MCS AS SUGGESTED BY THE NAMKF
MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE EWD ACROSS IA INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY. IF
THIS OCCURS...AN ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

...OH VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC...
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND NERN STATES. AT THE SFC...A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT SHOULD BE LOCATED ACROSS IND...OH EXTENDING
EWD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. MODEL FORECASTS SHOW DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S F ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING ABY MIDDAY. AS SFC TEMPS WARM...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SHOW VEERED
UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY WINDS AT THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS WHICH SHOULD FAVOR
WIND DAMAGE AS THE MAIN THREAT ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. FURTHER EAST
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC...A SFC LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ALONG
THE FRONT WITH A 35 TO 45 LOW-LEVEL JET IN PLACE NEAR THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS FEATURE COULD ENHANCE SHEAR PROFILES ENOUGH
FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADO POTENTIAL.

..BROYLES.. 06/03/2008

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1343Z (9:43AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[CrazyC83]

No MDT for day 3, but a large hatched area and some 30%, with hints of upgrades:

SPC AC 030728

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CDT TUE JUN 03 2008

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND
SRN PLAINS...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...MID MO VALLEY...UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES REGION...

...GREAT LAKES/UPPER MIDWEST/CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE WRN STATES IS FORECAST TO OPEN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND MOVE EWD INTO THE ROCKIES THURSDAY. AN IMPRESSIVE
MID-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO EJECT NEWD INTO THE PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST CREATING STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS AN EXTENSIVE
AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH A LARGE WARM SECTOR SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT.

AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SWD ACROSS THE UPPER
MS VALLEY...UPPER MIDWEST AND CNTRL PLAINS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN THE AFTERNOON AND INCREASE IN
COVERAGE DURING THE EVENING DUE TO A BROAD LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS. THE
SUPERCELL POTENTIAL APPEARS HIGH DUE TO THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
EVIDENT ON REGIONAL FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THE GREATEST SEVERE STORM
COVERAGE SHOULD BE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CNTRL PLAINS WHERE
LARGE-SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED THURSDAY EVENING. A SEVERE THREAT
MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS ESPECIALLY IF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH COMES EWD OUT OF THE ROCKIES ON A TRACK SOUTH OF CURRENT
MODEL PROJECTIONS. ONCE CERTAINTY INCREASES...AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE
RISK ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION MAY BECOME NECESSARY DUE TO THE
WIDESPREAD NATURE OF THE THREAT.

..BROYLES.. 06/03/2008

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1100Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1343Z (9:43AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[KWT]

Yep looking very likely that it wil lbe upgraded to moderate by day two given what is hinted at by that discussion there.

[CrazyC83]

Awaiting the 1730Z Day 2 update.

[CrazyC83]

SPC AC 031730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT TUE JUN 03 2008

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
EWD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
FLOW PATTERN ALOFT IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY THIS PERIOD...AS A STRONG
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE PAC NW DIGS SEWD ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL RESULT IN AMPLIFICATION OF THE WRN U.S.
TROUGH...AS WELL AS A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WHICH WILL EXPAND NWD ACROSS
MOST OF THE ERN HALF OF THE U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS INITIALLY FORECAST OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH
VALLEY AND A TROUGH/DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD ACROSS THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO LINGER/DRIFT WWD TOWARD THE HIGH
PLAINS WITH TIME...DEEPENING SLOWLY AS THE UPPER TROUGH STRENGTHENS
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. MEANWHILE...THE W-E FRONT ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/OH VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NWD TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION...AS WARM SECTOR SLYS PERSIST AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST...
AREAS OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD...NEAR AND N OF SURFACE WARM FRONT AIDED BY
WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD WSWLY
LOW-LEVEL JET. WITH STRONG/NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WITH HEIGHT
FROM ROUGHLY MO EWD...ANY ONGOING STORM CLUSTERS -- LIKELY INCLUDING
FAST-MOVING/BOWING SEGMENTS -- WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN ONGOING
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WITHIN A BROAD ZONE EXTENDING EWD
TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION

WHILE ONGOING STORMS/SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY...AREAS OF STORM INTENSIFICATION/REDEVELOPMENT ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND VICINITY...AS
DAYTIME HEATING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE RESULTS IN
MODERATE DESTABILIZATION. WHILE WARM SECTOR CAPPING SHOULD LIMIT
STORM DEVELOPMENT AND SUBSEQUENT COVERAGE...CONVECTION SHOULD
INITIATE BOTH OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS N OF THE SURFACE LOW
WHERE ELY LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED...AND THEN INTO PARTS
OF KS/NEB AND VICINITY AS A MORE SSWLY LOW-LEVEL JET REDEVELOPS WWD
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH GREATER INSTABILITY AND SOMEWHAT
STRONGER VEERING IN THE FLOW WITH HEIGHT...INITIAL STORM MODE MAY BE
SUPERCELLULAR...WITH LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED.
A COUPLE OF TORNADOES MAY ALSO OCCUR...ESPECIALLY JUST E OF THE
SURFACE LOW/NEAR THE WARM FRONT WHERE MORE ELY COMPONENT IN THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL EXIST. WITH TIME...STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO
CLUSTERS/ONE OR MORE MCS...WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR HAIL/DAMAGING
WINDS. OVERALL...EXPECT SEVERAL EWD-MOVING CLUSTERS OF SEVERE
STORMS ACROSS A BROAD ZONE FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EWD TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST...WITH THE THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION PERSISTING
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

..GOSS.. 06/03/2008

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0800Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1737Z (1:37PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME