Morning !
Another MDT day ahead !
June 2-3: Severe weather in the Central US
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Re: June 2-3: Severe weather in the Central US
Hey all. Sounds like a significant wind event day. Awaiting the updated outlook in a few hours.
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0136 AM CDT TUE JUN 03 2008
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS PARTS OF ERN MO...CENTRAL AND SRN IL...IND AND OH...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS EWD THROUGH THE LOWER MO VALLEY TO PA...
CORRECTED TORNADO/HAIL/WIND PROBABILITY GRAPHICS
...SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE OVER THE WRN STATES TODAY AS A COUPLE
OF PACIFIC TROUGHS AND ACCOMPANYING STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL WNWLY
FLOW DIG SEWD INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. BAND OF STRONG FLOW
ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH THE MID
MS/OH VALLEYS AND NERN STATES...WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS/IMPULSES TRANSLATING ENEWD IN THIS FLOW FIELD. A MORE
DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER CO
RIVER VALLEY PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS TO ERN CO BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL
THEN MOVE INTO KS/OK TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...
INITIALLY LOCATED OVER SRN QUEBEC WILL TRACK EWD TODAY.
IN THE LOW LEVELS...A COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO THE QUEBEC TROUGH WILL
MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE NERN STATES WITH THE WRN EXTENT SETTLING SWD
AND STALLING IN THE OH VALLEY. FARTHER W...A SURFACE LOW LOCATED
OVER CENTRAL KS AT 12Z TODAY WILL TRACK ENEWD ALONG A BAROCLINIC
ZONE EXTENDING ENEWD ACROSS MO INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY.
...MID MS/OH VALLEYS...
TSTMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY AT 12Z TODAY.
STRENGTHENING SWLY LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM THE MID MS INTO THE OH
VALLEY WILL ADVECT MOISTURE NEWD TODAY...WITH SURFACE HEATING/
DESTABILIZATION DOWNSTREAM OF MORNING ACTIVITY SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL
TSTM DEVELOPMENT EWD INTO OH/KY THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
STRENGTHENING WLY MID LEVEL WINDS ATOP THE SWLY LLJ WILL RESULT IN
SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH
THIS ACTIVITY.
A GREATER SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE OH VALLEY
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON OVER IL/IND AND SPREADING EWD THROUGH THE
REST OF THE OH VALLEY THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. SURFACE HEATING IS
EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOWER OH
VALLEY... MAINLY ALONG AND S OF THE SURFACE FRONT. THIS COMBINED
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE /SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO AROUND 70/ BENEATH
PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXTENDING EWD OVER THIS AREA
WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 2000-2500
J/KG/ BY AFTERNOON. 50-70 KT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW SPREADING INTO THE
MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH 30-40 KT
SWLY LLJ INTO THIS REGION WILL RESULT IN 40-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR. THE FAVORABLE KINEMATICS AND THERMODYNAMICS WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS WITH THE TSTMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT FROM NRN MO
INTO CENTRAL IL TO CENTRAL/SRN IND IN THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
LIKELIHOOD FOR BACKED SURFACE WINDS IN VICINITY OF BAROCLINIC
ZONE...AND WINDS VEERING WITH HEIGHT... LARGE HODOGRAPHS WILL
PROMOTE THREAT FOR TORNADOES...SOME STRONG. MODELS TEND TO AGREE
THAT A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT...WITH THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS BECOMING THE
PRIMARY THREAT EWD THROUGH THE MID-UPPER OH VALLEY AFTER DARK.
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL REMAIN A THREAT GIVEN FURTHER STRENGTHENING
OF LLJ ACROSS OH TO WRN PA/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...ENHANCING
LOW LEVEL SHEAR. THREAT FOR STRONG WINDS MAY DEVELOP EWD LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS SRN PA/NRN MD.
...PLAINS STATES...
A COUPLE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES MOVING SWD ACROSS NEB AND KS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE THE FOCI FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT TODAY...GIVEN A
RESIDUAL MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER..SURFACE HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG INSTABILITY. MODELS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
NEW TSTM DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR EARLIER ACROSS NEB WHERE THE CAP
SHOULD BE WEAKER. FARTHER S ACROSS SRN KS...TSTM DEVELOPMENT MAY
REQUIRE FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY TROUGH
APPROACHING THIS REGION AND WEAKENING THE STRONGER CAP. ADDITIONAL
TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW INTO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO/WY. ALL OF THESE AREAS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS...SINCE THIS REGION WILL
RESIDE BENEATH STRONG FLOW ALOFT RESULTING IN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
AROUND 50 KT WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT INTO A COUPLE OF TSTM CLUSTERS/MCSS PRODUCING
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS APPEARS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. THE FIRST AREA
SHOULD BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS A SELY LLJ STRENGTHENS
INTO THIS REGION BENEATH PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE
SECOND AREA SHOULD BE ACROSS SRN KS/NRN OK INTO SWRN MO AS ASCENT
WITH THE SRN STREAM TROUGH AND INCREASING WAA ALONG A STRENGTHENING
SRN PLAINS LLJ DEVELOP OVER THIS AREA.
...UPPER TN VALLEY/SRN APPALACHIANS TO SERN STATES...
MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THIS REGION TODAY.
25-40 KT OF NWLY FLOW EXTENDING SEWD INTO WRN CAROLINAS/NRN GA WILL
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SOME STORM ORGANIZATION
WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0136 AM CDT TUE JUN 03 2008
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS PARTS OF ERN MO...CENTRAL AND SRN IL...IND AND OH...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS EWD THROUGH THE LOWER MO VALLEY TO PA...
CORRECTED TORNADO/HAIL/WIND PROBABILITY GRAPHICS
...SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE OVER THE WRN STATES TODAY AS A COUPLE
OF PACIFIC TROUGHS AND ACCOMPANYING STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL WNWLY
FLOW DIG SEWD INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. BAND OF STRONG FLOW
ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH THE MID
MS/OH VALLEYS AND NERN STATES...WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS/IMPULSES TRANSLATING ENEWD IN THIS FLOW FIELD. A MORE
DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER CO
RIVER VALLEY PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS TO ERN CO BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL
THEN MOVE INTO KS/OK TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...
INITIALLY LOCATED OVER SRN QUEBEC WILL TRACK EWD TODAY.
IN THE LOW LEVELS...A COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO THE QUEBEC TROUGH WILL
MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE NERN STATES WITH THE WRN EXTENT SETTLING SWD
AND STALLING IN THE OH VALLEY. FARTHER W...A SURFACE LOW LOCATED
OVER CENTRAL KS AT 12Z TODAY WILL TRACK ENEWD ALONG A BAROCLINIC
ZONE EXTENDING ENEWD ACROSS MO INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY.
...MID MS/OH VALLEYS...
TSTMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY AT 12Z TODAY.
STRENGTHENING SWLY LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM THE MID MS INTO THE OH
VALLEY WILL ADVECT MOISTURE NEWD TODAY...WITH SURFACE HEATING/
DESTABILIZATION DOWNSTREAM OF MORNING ACTIVITY SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL
TSTM DEVELOPMENT EWD INTO OH/KY THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
STRENGTHENING WLY MID LEVEL WINDS ATOP THE SWLY LLJ WILL RESULT IN
SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH
THIS ACTIVITY.
A GREATER SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE OH VALLEY
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON OVER IL/IND AND SPREADING EWD THROUGH THE
REST OF THE OH VALLEY THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. SURFACE HEATING IS
EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOWER OH
VALLEY... MAINLY ALONG AND S OF THE SURFACE FRONT. THIS COMBINED
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE /SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO AROUND 70/ BENEATH
PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXTENDING EWD OVER THIS AREA
WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 2000-2500
J/KG/ BY AFTERNOON. 50-70 KT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW SPREADING INTO THE
MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH 30-40 KT
SWLY LLJ INTO THIS REGION WILL RESULT IN 40-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR. THE FAVORABLE KINEMATICS AND THERMODYNAMICS WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS WITH THE TSTMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT FROM NRN MO
INTO CENTRAL IL TO CENTRAL/SRN IND IN THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
LIKELIHOOD FOR BACKED SURFACE WINDS IN VICINITY OF BAROCLINIC
ZONE...AND WINDS VEERING WITH HEIGHT... LARGE HODOGRAPHS WILL
PROMOTE THREAT FOR TORNADOES...SOME STRONG. MODELS TEND TO AGREE
THAT A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT...WITH THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS BECOMING THE
PRIMARY THREAT EWD THROUGH THE MID-UPPER OH VALLEY AFTER DARK.
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL REMAIN A THREAT GIVEN FURTHER STRENGTHENING
OF LLJ ACROSS OH TO WRN PA/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...ENHANCING
LOW LEVEL SHEAR. THREAT FOR STRONG WINDS MAY DEVELOP EWD LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS SRN PA/NRN MD.
...PLAINS STATES...
A COUPLE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES MOVING SWD ACROSS NEB AND KS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE THE FOCI FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT TODAY...GIVEN A
RESIDUAL MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER..SURFACE HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG INSTABILITY. MODELS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
NEW TSTM DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR EARLIER ACROSS NEB WHERE THE CAP
SHOULD BE WEAKER. FARTHER S ACROSS SRN KS...TSTM DEVELOPMENT MAY
REQUIRE FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY TROUGH
APPROACHING THIS REGION AND WEAKENING THE STRONGER CAP. ADDITIONAL
TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW INTO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO/WY. ALL OF THESE AREAS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS...SINCE THIS REGION WILL
RESIDE BENEATH STRONG FLOW ALOFT RESULTING IN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
AROUND 50 KT WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT INTO A COUPLE OF TSTM CLUSTERS/MCSS PRODUCING
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS APPEARS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. THE FIRST AREA
SHOULD BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS A SELY LLJ STRENGTHENS
INTO THIS REGION BENEATH PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE
SECOND AREA SHOULD BE ACROSS SRN KS/NRN OK INTO SWRN MO AS ASCENT
WITH THE SRN STREAM TROUGH AND INCREASING WAA ALONG A STRENGTHENING
SRN PLAINS LLJ DEVELOP OVER THIS AREA.
...UPPER TN VALLEY/SRN APPALACHIANS TO SERN STATES...
MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THIS REGION TODAY.
25-40 KT OF NWLY FLOW EXTENDING SEWD INTO WRN CAROLINAS/NRN GA WILL
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SOME STORM ORGANIZATION
WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
0 likes
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liveweatherman
- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 76
- Age: 44
- Joined: Fri Mar 28, 2008 7:13 am
- Contact:
Re: June 2-3: Severe weather in the Central US
Check Here's Illinois latest :Radar Image
Special Weather Statements:
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
Issue Date: 446 AM CDT TUE JUN 03 2008
Expiration: 700 AM CDT WED JUN 04 2008
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 75 MPH AND
EVEN STRONG TORNADOES.
Special Weather Statements:
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
Issue Date: 446 AM CDT TUE JUN 03 2008
Expiration: 700 AM CDT WED JUN 04 2008
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 75 MPH AND
EVEN STRONG TORNADOES.
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-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: June 2-3: Severe weather in the Central US
SPC AC 031259
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 AM CDT TUE JUN 03 2008
VALID 031300Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MO EAST INTO OH...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL HI PLNS EAST
INTO THE APPALACHIANS...
...SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE SVR WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
SEASONABLY STRONG WSW FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE CNTRL U.S. ON NRN
PERIPHERY OF FLATTENED TX/NWRN GULF UPR RIDGE. DEVELOPING
WARM/QSTNRY FRONT FROM THE CNTRL PLNS ENE TO THE UPR OH VLY WILL BE
THE MAIN CORRIDOR OF ACTION...WITH DISTURBANCES IN THE BOTH THE SRN
AND NRN STREAMS MODULATING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. A SFC WAVE WILL
TRACK FROM ERN KS TO NRN IND ALONG THE EVOLVING FRONT...SUPPORTED IN
PART BY SRN STREAM IMPULSE NOW ENTERING CO.
...MID MS INTO OH VLY...
ONGOING TSTM CLUSTERS FROM IA/NRN MO ESE INTO THE OH VLY WILL
TEMPORALLY RETARD NEWD DEVELOPMENT OF WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
BUT SUSTAINED/DEEPENING WSWLY LOW LVL FLOW SHOULD ALLOW EFFECTIVE
BOUNDARY TO EXTEND FROM NRN MO ESE INTO ERN KY BY LATE IN THE
DAY...WHILE A SEPARATE FRONT /ASSOCIATED WITH NRN STREAM TROUGH IN
QUEBEC/ SETTLES S ACROSS NY/ONTARIO TO ABOUT THE PA BORDER/LK ERIE.
ONGOING STORM CLUSTERS ARE PARTLY ELEVATED AND WILL CONTINUE TO
ENCOUNTER LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERIC AIR THAT AT LEAST IN SOME AREAS
WAS AFFECTED BY EARLIER OVERNIGHT ELEVATED MCSS /REF MCD #1175/.
NEVERTHELESS...WHILE AREA RAOBS DID NOT WELL SAMPLE INFLOW
ENVIRONMENT...SUFFICIENT ELEVATED CAPE LIKELY EXISTS TO POSE A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR ISOLD SVR HAIL/WIND THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING.
A GREATER SVR THREAT LIKELY WILL EVOLVE LATE THIS AFTN THROUGH
TONIGHT FROM NRN/CNTRL MO E INTO IL/IND AS HEATING IGNITES SFC-BASED
STORMS ALONG WARM/QSTNRY FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING
ACTIVITY. THE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE E ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
OH VLY LATER TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE /SURFACE
DEWPOINTS TO AROUND 70/ BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME PARALLELING
WSWLY MID-LVL JET WILL YIELD MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY...WITH
2000-2500 J/KG SBCAPE EXPECTED IN IL/IND...AND VALUES AOA 3000 J/KG
IN MO. AT THE SAME TIME...50-60 KT WLY MID-LVL FLOW ATOP 30-40 KT
SWLY LLJ WILL RESULT IN 40-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR.
GIVEN KINEMATIC/THERMODYNAMIC SETUP...SUSTAINED SEMI-DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS APPEAR LIKELY. THESE WILL PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND HIGH
WIND...ESPECIALLY IN MO/IL. AND...GIVEN LIKELIHOOD FOR BACKED
SURFACE WINDS ALONG THE FRONT...AS WELL AS NEAR NE KS/NW MO SFC
WAVE...ENLARGED LOW-LVL HODOGRAPHS MAY FOSTER LOW-LVL STORM
ROTATION/TORNADOES. WITH TIME...HOWEVER...THE CONCENTRATION OF
STORMS ALONG A NEARLY LINEAR AXIS OF ASCENT SHOULD LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AN EXTENSIVE WSW-ENE-ORIENTED MCS FROM MO TO OH.
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/BOWING SEGMENTS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT
FOR SVR WIND/HAIL AND ISOLD TORNADOES AS THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
MOVES/DEVELOPS E INTO PA/WV AND POSSIBLY NRN MD EARLY WEDNESDAY.
...PLAINS STATES...
SEVERAL WEAK FRONTS/COOL AIR SURGES MOVING GENERALLY S ACROSS THE
CNTRL AND NRN PLNS WILL BE FOCI FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY. OTHER
STORMS LIKELY WILL FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN CO/WY AND WRN
SD...AND AHEAD OF NRN STREAM UPR LOW IN ND. GIVEN RESIDUALLY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER...STRONG SFC HEATING...STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE
RATES...AND MODERATE CYCLONIC MID/UPR FLOW...THE STORMS WILL INCLUDE
SUPERCELLS IN ADDITION TO SUSTAINED BANDS/MULTICELL CLUSTERS.
UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS PRODUCING STRONG TO SVR
WIND/HAIL APPEARS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. ONE CORRIDOR MAY INCLUDE ERN
WY/SRN SD AND NEB AS A MOIST SELY LLJ STRENGTHENS...WITH ANOTHER
OVER KS AND PERHAPS NRN OK...BENEATH SRN STREAM JET.
...UPR TN VLY/SRN APLCNS SSE TO CAROLINAS/GA/FL...
MORNING RAOBS AND CONVERGENCE ALONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING/OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES SUGGEST THAT STORMS WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE SERN
U.S. TODAY. 25-40 KT NWLY MID-LVL FLOW EXTENDING SE INTO WRN
CAROLINAS/NRN GA WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. HAIL AND
LOCALLY DMGG WIND SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THESE LARGELY
DIURNAL STORMS.
..CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 06/03/2008
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 AM CDT TUE JUN 03 2008
VALID 031300Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MO EAST INTO OH...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL HI PLNS EAST
INTO THE APPALACHIANS...
...SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE SVR WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
SEASONABLY STRONG WSW FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE CNTRL U.S. ON NRN
PERIPHERY OF FLATTENED TX/NWRN GULF UPR RIDGE. DEVELOPING
WARM/QSTNRY FRONT FROM THE CNTRL PLNS ENE TO THE UPR OH VLY WILL BE
THE MAIN CORRIDOR OF ACTION...WITH DISTURBANCES IN THE BOTH THE SRN
AND NRN STREAMS MODULATING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. A SFC WAVE WILL
TRACK FROM ERN KS TO NRN IND ALONG THE EVOLVING FRONT...SUPPORTED IN
PART BY SRN STREAM IMPULSE NOW ENTERING CO.
...MID MS INTO OH VLY...
ONGOING TSTM CLUSTERS FROM IA/NRN MO ESE INTO THE OH VLY WILL
TEMPORALLY RETARD NEWD DEVELOPMENT OF WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
BUT SUSTAINED/DEEPENING WSWLY LOW LVL FLOW SHOULD ALLOW EFFECTIVE
BOUNDARY TO EXTEND FROM NRN MO ESE INTO ERN KY BY LATE IN THE
DAY...WHILE A SEPARATE FRONT /ASSOCIATED WITH NRN STREAM TROUGH IN
QUEBEC/ SETTLES S ACROSS NY/ONTARIO TO ABOUT THE PA BORDER/LK ERIE.
ONGOING STORM CLUSTERS ARE PARTLY ELEVATED AND WILL CONTINUE TO
ENCOUNTER LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERIC AIR THAT AT LEAST IN SOME AREAS
WAS AFFECTED BY EARLIER OVERNIGHT ELEVATED MCSS /REF MCD #1175/.
NEVERTHELESS...WHILE AREA RAOBS DID NOT WELL SAMPLE INFLOW
ENVIRONMENT...SUFFICIENT ELEVATED CAPE LIKELY EXISTS TO POSE A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR ISOLD SVR HAIL/WIND THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING.
A GREATER SVR THREAT LIKELY WILL EVOLVE LATE THIS AFTN THROUGH
TONIGHT FROM NRN/CNTRL MO E INTO IL/IND AS HEATING IGNITES SFC-BASED
STORMS ALONG WARM/QSTNRY FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING
ACTIVITY. THE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE E ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
OH VLY LATER TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE /SURFACE
DEWPOINTS TO AROUND 70/ BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME PARALLELING
WSWLY MID-LVL JET WILL YIELD MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY...WITH
2000-2500 J/KG SBCAPE EXPECTED IN IL/IND...AND VALUES AOA 3000 J/KG
IN MO. AT THE SAME TIME...50-60 KT WLY MID-LVL FLOW ATOP 30-40 KT
SWLY LLJ WILL RESULT IN 40-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR.
GIVEN KINEMATIC/THERMODYNAMIC SETUP...SUSTAINED SEMI-DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS APPEAR LIKELY. THESE WILL PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND HIGH
WIND...ESPECIALLY IN MO/IL. AND...GIVEN LIKELIHOOD FOR BACKED
SURFACE WINDS ALONG THE FRONT...AS WELL AS NEAR NE KS/NW MO SFC
WAVE...ENLARGED LOW-LVL HODOGRAPHS MAY FOSTER LOW-LVL STORM
ROTATION/TORNADOES. WITH TIME...HOWEVER...THE CONCENTRATION OF
STORMS ALONG A NEARLY LINEAR AXIS OF ASCENT SHOULD LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AN EXTENSIVE WSW-ENE-ORIENTED MCS FROM MO TO OH.
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/BOWING SEGMENTS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT
FOR SVR WIND/HAIL AND ISOLD TORNADOES AS THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
MOVES/DEVELOPS E INTO PA/WV AND POSSIBLY NRN MD EARLY WEDNESDAY.
...PLAINS STATES...
SEVERAL WEAK FRONTS/COOL AIR SURGES MOVING GENERALLY S ACROSS THE
CNTRL AND NRN PLNS WILL BE FOCI FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY. OTHER
STORMS LIKELY WILL FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN CO/WY AND WRN
SD...AND AHEAD OF NRN STREAM UPR LOW IN ND. GIVEN RESIDUALLY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER...STRONG SFC HEATING...STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE
RATES...AND MODERATE CYCLONIC MID/UPR FLOW...THE STORMS WILL INCLUDE
SUPERCELLS IN ADDITION TO SUSTAINED BANDS/MULTICELL CLUSTERS.
UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS PRODUCING STRONG TO SVR
WIND/HAIL APPEARS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. ONE CORRIDOR MAY INCLUDE ERN
WY/SRN SD AND NEB AS A MOIST SELY LLJ STRENGTHENS...WITH ANOTHER
OVER KS AND PERHAPS NRN OK...BENEATH SRN STREAM JET.
...UPR TN VLY/SRN APLCNS SSE TO CAROLINAS/GA/FL...
MORNING RAOBS AND CONVERGENCE ALONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING/OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES SUGGEST THAT STORMS WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE SERN
U.S. TODAY. 25-40 KT NWLY MID-LVL FLOW EXTENDING SE INTO WRN
CAROLINAS/NRN GA WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. HAIL AND
LOCALLY DMGG WIND SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THESE LARGELY
DIURNAL STORMS.
..CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 06/03/2008
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: June 2-3: Severe weather in the Central US
Little change at 1630Z, the tornado risk was unhatched:
SPC AC 031639
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1139 AM CDT TUE JUN 03 2008
VALID 031630Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MO E INTO SRN OH...PARTS OF
NRN KY AND WRN WV......
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL HI PLAINS EWD
TO THE APPALACHIANS......
CORRECTED THUNDER LINES
ADJUSTMENT TO PREVIOUS 13Z OUTLOOK PRIMARILY SHIFTING THE GREATEST
THREAT FOR ORGANIZED DAMAGING WINDS/TORNADOS SOMEWHAT SWD. ONGOING
SEVERE MCS/BOW ECHO MOVING RAPIDLY ESEWD FROM CENTRAL IL WILL BE THE
NEAR TERM CONCERN FOR DAMAGING WINDS AS BOW MOVING AT 50 PLUS KT
REACHES NRN KY/SRN OH BY MID AFTERNOON. WITH MLCAPES THIS AREA AOA
1500 J/KG DEVELOPING INTO THIS AREA AND VERY STRONG VEERING SHEAR
PROFILES BOTH DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED. MDT HAS
THUS BEEN ADDED TO PORTIONS OF NRN KY INTO WRN WV.
ALSO HAVE EXTENDED THE MDT RISK A LITTLE FURTHER W TO THE KS/MO
BORDER. BOUNDARY FROM ONGOING MCS WILL TRAIL WWD ACROSS NRN MO
FOCUSING INITIATION OF SUPERCELLS. WITH MLCAPES IN WARM SECTOR AOA
3000 J/KG...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 50KT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR..BOTH VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SUPERCELL THAT DEVELOPS VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT.
OTHERWISE THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION FROM THE 13Z DY1 COVERS THE
OVERALL SITUATION WELL.
.................................................................
..SELECT A FORECASTER.. 06/03/2008
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1711Z (1:11PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIM
SPC AC 031639
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1139 AM CDT TUE JUN 03 2008
VALID 031630Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MO E INTO SRN OH...PARTS OF
NRN KY AND WRN WV......
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL HI PLAINS EWD
TO THE APPALACHIANS......
CORRECTED THUNDER LINES
ADJUSTMENT TO PREVIOUS 13Z OUTLOOK PRIMARILY SHIFTING THE GREATEST
THREAT FOR ORGANIZED DAMAGING WINDS/TORNADOS SOMEWHAT SWD. ONGOING
SEVERE MCS/BOW ECHO MOVING RAPIDLY ESEWD FROM CENTRAL IL WILL BE THE
NEAR TERM CONCERN FOR DAMAGING WINDS AS BOW MOVING AT 50 PLUS KT
REACHES NRN KY/SRN OH BY MID AFTERNOON. WITH MLCAPES THIS AREA AOA
1500 J/KG DEVELOPING INTO THIS AREA AND VERY STRONG VEERING SHEAR
PROFILES BOTH DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED. MDT HAS
THUS BEEN ADDED TO PORTIONS OF NRN KY INTO WRN WV.
ALSO HAVE EXTENDED THE MDT RISK A LITTLE FURTHER W TO THE KS/MO
BORDER. BOUNDARY FROM ONGOING MCS WILL TRAIL WWD ACROSS NRN MO
FOCUSING INITIATION OF SUPERCELLS. WITH MLCAPES IN WARM SECTOR AOA
3000 J/KG...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 50KT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR..BOTH VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SUPERCELL THAT DEVELOPS VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT.
OTHERWISE THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION FROM THE 13Z DY1 COVERS THE
OVERALL SITUATION WELL.
.................................................................
..SELECT A FORECASTER.. 06/03/2008
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1711Z (1:11PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIM
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Well some severe thunderstorm warnings are out:
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
INC055-153-031915-
/O.NEW.KIND.SV.W.0052.080603T1809Z-080603T1915Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
209 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2008
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
GREENE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...
EAST CENTRAL SULLIVAN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...
* UNTIL 315 PM EDT
* AT 200 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL SULLIVAN
COUNTY...OR 22 MILES EAST OF ROBINSON...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.
* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
SWITZ CITY BY 215 PM EDT...
WORTHINGTON BY 220 PM EDT...
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.
FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF
YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SERIOUS
INJURY AND SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO PROPERTY.
LAT...LON 3912 8674 3892 8675 3897 8740 3915 8735
TIME...MOT...LOC 1809Z 275DEG 53KT 3905 8718
$$
JK
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
INC055-153-031915-
/O.NEW.KIND.SV.W.0052.080603T1809Z-080603T1915Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
209 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2008
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
GREENE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...
EAST CENTRAL SULLIVAN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...
* UNTIL 315 PM EDT
* AT 200 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL SULLIVAN
COUNTY...OR 22 MILES EAST OF ROBINSON...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.
* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
SWITZ CITY BY 215 PM EDT...
WORTHINGTON BY 220 PM EDT...
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.
FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF
YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SERIOUS
INJURY AND SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO PROPERTY.
LAT...LON 3912 8674 3892 8675 3897 8740 3915 8735
TIME...MOT...LOC 1809Z 275DEG 53KT 3905 8718
$$
JK
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Heres another one:
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NCC003-059-097-031930-
/O.NEW.KGSP.SV.W.0099.080603T1836Z-080603T1930Z/
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
236 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2008
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN ALEXANDER COUNTY IN THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA
NORTHERN DAVIE COUNTY IN THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA
NORTHERN IREDELL COUNTY IN THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA
* UNTIL 330 PM EDT
* AT 234 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 12
MILES NORTHEAST OF TAYLORSVILLE...OR ABOUT NEAR LOVE VALLEY...AND
WAS MOVING EAST AT 23 MPH.
* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
UNION GROVE BY 255 PM EDT...
HARMONY BY 305 PM EDT...
SHEFFIELD BY 320 PM EDT...
FARMINGTON BY 330 PM EDT...
PEOPLE IN THE PATH OF THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM SHOULD BE ALERT FOR
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN CAN OCCUR WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AWAY FROM
WINDOWS AND DOORS UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.
TO REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...OR FLOODING...THROUGH OUR
AUTOMATED REPORTING SYSTEM...CALL OUR TOLL FREE NUMBER...
1 8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.
LAT...LON 3592 8040 3591 8109 3603 8110 3604 8102
3606 8098 3605 8046 3601 8041
TIME...MOT...LOC 1836Z 264DEG 20KT 3601 8098
$$
ARK
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NCC003-059-097-031930-
/O.NEW.KGSP.SV.W.0099.080603T1836Z-080603T1930Z/
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
236 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2008
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN ALEXANDER COUNTY IN THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA
NORTHERN DAVIE COUNTY IN THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA
NORTHERN IREDELL COUNTY IN THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA
* UNTIL 330 PM EDT
* AT 234 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 12
MILES NORTHEAST OF TAYLORSVILLE...OR ABOUT NEAR LOVE VALLEY...AND
WAS MOVING EAST AT 23 MPH.
* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
UNION GROVE BY 255 PM EDT...
HARMONY BY 305 PM EDT...
SHEFFIELD BY 320 PM EDT...
FARMINGTON BY 330 PM EDT...
PEOPLE IN THE PATH OF THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM SHOULD BE ALERT FOR
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN CAN OCCUR WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AWAY FROM
WINDOWS AND DOORS UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.
TO REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...OR FLOODING...THROUGH OUR
AUTOMATED REPORTING SYSTEM...CALL OUR TOLL FREE NUMBER...
1 8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.
LAT...LON 3592 8040 3591 8109 3603 8110 3604 8102
3606 8098 3605 8046 3601 8041
TIME...MOT...LOC 1836Z 264DEG 20KT 3601 8098
$$
ARK
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wbug1
Re: June 2-3: Severe weather in the Central US
Tornado just went through Columbus, Indiana and if it continues on it's current path would bring it through the areas south of Cincinnati.
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN DEARBORN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST INDIANA...
CENTRAL RIPLEY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST INDIANA...
* UNTIL 345 PM EDT.
* AT 302 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HOLTON...MOVING EAST AT 56 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OSGOOD...
VERSAILLES...
MILAN...
MOORES HILL...
DILLSBORO...
IN ADDITION...VERSAILLES LAKE...BENHAM...OLEAN...FRIENDSHIP...FARMERS
RETREAT...COLD SPRINGS...MANCHESTER AND MILTON ARE NEAR THE PATH OF
THIS DANGEROUS THUNDERSTORM.
1842 UNK N COLUMBUS BARTHOLOMEW IN 3921 8591 DAMAGE WAS REPORTED SOUTH OF THE AIRPORT NEAR ROCKY FORD ROAD. POWERLINES WERE DOWN AND ROOFS WERE OFF BUILDINGS. (IND)
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN DEARBORN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST INDIANA...
CENTRAL RIPLEY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST INDIANA...
* UNTIL 345 PM EDT.
* AT 302 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HOLTON...MOVING EAST AT 56 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OSGOOD...
VERSAILLES...
MILAN...
MOORES HILL...
DILLSBORO...
IN ADDITION...VERSAILLES LAKE...BENHAM...OLEAN...FRIENDSHIP...FARMERS
RETREAT...COLD SPRINGS...MANCHESTER AND MILTON ARE NEAR THE PATH OF
THIS DANGEROUS THUNDERSTORM.
1842 UNK N COLUMBUS BARTHOLOMEW IN 3921 8591 DAMAGE WAS REPORTED SOUTH OF THE AIRPORT NEAR ROCKY FORD ROAD. POWERLINES WERE DOWN AND ROOFS WERE OFF BUILDINGS. (IND)
0 likes
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wbug1
Re: June 2-3: Severe weather in the Central US
Probable tornado near walton, ohio south of Cincinnati and moving SE and 50-60 mph.
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SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
COC041-032145-
/O.NEW.KPUB.SV.W.0031.080603T2015Z-080603T2145Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
215 PM MDT TUE JUN 3 2008
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PUEBLO HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EL PASO COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
THIS INCLUDES EASTERN COLORADO SPRINGS...
* UNTIL 345 PM MDT...
* AT 212 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR FALCON...OR ABOUT
11 MILES EAST OF COLORADO SPRINGS...AND WAS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST
AT 11 MPH. THIS WARNING REPLACES THE PREVIOUS WARNING WHICH WAS IN
EFFECT.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SCHRIEVER AFB.
ELLICOTT.
YODER.
TRUCKTON.
IF POSSIBLE...WITHOUT RISKING YOUR SAFETY...PROTECT PROPERTY BEFORE
THE WEATHER HITS. GET IN A STURDY STRUCTURE AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS. AN
INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR...OR A BASEMENT CAN OFFER THE BEST
PROTECTION.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM MDT
TUESDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO.
LAT...LON 3898 10404 3862 10417 3882 10476 3905 10467
TIME...MOT...LOC 2015Z 286DEG 9KT 3894 10458
$
COC041-032145-
/O.NEW.KPUB.SV.W.0031.080603T2015Z-080603T2145Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
215 PM MDT TUE JUN 3 2008
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PUEBLO HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EL PASO COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
THIS INCLUDES EASTERN COLORADO SPRINGS...
* UNTIL 345 PM MDT...
* AT 212 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR FALCON...OR ABOUT
11 MILES EAST OF COLORADO SPRINGS...AND WAS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST
AT 11 MPH. THIS WARNING REPLACES THE PREVIOUS WARNING WHICH WAS IN
EFFECT.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SCHRIEVER AFB.
ELLICOTT.
YODER.
TRUCKTON.
IF POSSIBLE...WITHOUT RISKING YOUR SAFETY...PROTECT PROPERTY BEFORE
THE WEATHER HITS. GET IN A STURDY STRUCTURE AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS. AN
INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR...OR A BASEMENT CAN OFFER THE BEST
PROTECTION.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM MDT
TUESDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO.
LAT...LON 3898 10404 3862 10417 3882 10476 3905 10467
TIME...MOT...LOC 2015Z 286DEG 9KT 3894 10458
$
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: June 2-3: Severe weather in the Central US
SEL7
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 437
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
340 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
FAR EASTERN KANSAS
NORTHERN MISSOURI
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 340 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
LEAVENWORTH KANSAS TO 55 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF KIRKSVILLE
MISSOURI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 434...WW 435...WW 436...
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT
1-3 HOURS ACROSS NRN MO AS CAP WEAKENS AND AIR MASS BECOMES VERY
UNSTABLE. AXIS OF STRONG SURFACE HEATING NOSING INTO NWRN MO MAY
PROVIDE INITIAL IMPETUS FOR DEVELOPMENT BY 5-6 PM...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS WW EARLY THIS EVENING.
SHEAR WILL REMAIN QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH EVENTUAL
EVOLUTION INTO MCS/LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM POSSIBLE LATER THIS
EVENING. LARGE HAIL...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE QUITE LARGE...IS
EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR...ALTHOUGH
MODEST...WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES.
WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE WITH THESE STORMS SHOULD
ORGANIZATION INCREASE THROUGH THE MID TO LATE EVENING.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26025.
...EVANS
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 437
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
340 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
FAR EASTERN KANSAS
NORTHERN MISSOURI
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 340 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
LEAVENWORTH KANSAS TO 55 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF KIRKSVILLE
MISSOURI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 434...WW 435...WW 436...
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT
1-3 HOURS ACROSS NRN MO AS CAP WEAKENS AND AIR MASS BECOMES VERY
UNSTABLE. AXIS OF STRONG SURFACE HEATING NOSING INTO NWRN MO MAY
PROVIDE INITIAL IMPETUS FOR DEVELOPMENT BY 5-6 PM...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS WW EARLY THIS EVENING.
SHEAR WILL REMAIN QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH EVENTUAL
EVOLUTION INTO MCS/LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM POSSIBLE LATER THIS
EVENING. LARGE HAIL...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE QUITE LARGE...IS
EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR...ALTHOUGH
MODEST...WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES.
WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE WITH THESE STORMS SHOULD
ORGANIZATION INCREASE THROUGH THE MID TO LATE EVENING.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26025.
...EVANS
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1184
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0538 PM CDT TUE JUN 03 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NE KS...NRN/CNTRL MO
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 437...
VALID 032238Z - 040045Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 437 CONTINUES.
MESOANALYSIS PLACES A 998 MB LOW OVER NERN KS BETWEEN KMCI-KTOP WITH
A SYNOPTIC STATIONARY FRONT NEWD INTO SRN IA/NRN IL. ILL-DEFINED
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NOCTURNAL MCS EXTENDED SEWD INTO NRN MO/WCNTRL
IL...NE OF KANSAS CITY AND N OF ST. LOUIS. LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE
HAS NOSED NWD INTO ERN KS/NWRN MO AND EWD ALONG/S OF THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY WITH MLCAPES IN EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG AND WEAK INHIBITION.
SPORADIC CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO SPROUT FROM NRN MO INTO WRN IL AND
ALONG THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY OVER SRN IA.
PROGGED LARGER SCALE HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED TO SPREAD E ACROSS KS
WILL LIKELY INVIGORATE THE SFC LOW AND THE SLY LLJ DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. AS A RESULT...CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY DEEPEN
THROUGH MID-EVENING...PARTICULARLY OVER NRN MO/WCNTRL IL. 0-6KM
SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS AND MAGNITUDE OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SUGGEST THAT SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY WITH LARGE HAIL. GREATEST
TORNADO THREAT WILL OCCUR AS STORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE TOWARD/ALONG
THE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN MO AND WCNTRL IL THROUGH
MID-EVENING. EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS IS LIKELY LATER
TONIGHT.
GIVEN THAT CONVECTION IS STRENGTHENING DOWNSTREAM OF THE CURRENT
TORNADO WATCH...ADDITIONAL WW/S TO THE EAST INTO IL MAY BE REQUIRED
THIS EVENING.
..RACY.. 06/03/2008
ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...EAX...
38679186 38749290 38739421 39419503 40099460 40469344
40038980 39548947 39088962 38869114 38719192
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0538 PM CDT TUE JUN 03 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NE KS...NRN/CNTRL MO
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 437...
VALID 032238Z - 040045Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 437 CONTINUES.
MESOANALYSIS PLACES A 998 MB LOW OVER NERN KS BETWEEN KMCI-KTOP WITH
A SYNOPTIC STATIONARY FRONT NEWD INTO SRN IA/NRN IL. ILL-DEFINED
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NOCTURNAL MCS EXTENDED SEWD INTO NRN MO/WCNTRL
IL...NE OF KANSAS CITY AND N OF ST. LOUIS. LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE
HAS NOSED NWD INTO ERN KS/NWRN MO AND EWD ALONG/S OF THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY WITH MLCAPES IN EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG AND WEAK INHIBITION.
SPORADIC CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO SPROUT FROM NRN MO INTO WRN IL AND
ALONG THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY OVER SRN IA.
PROGGED LARGER SCALE HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED TO SPREAD E ACROSS KS
WILL LIKELY INVIGORATE THE SFC LOW AND THE SLY LLJ DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. AS A RESULT...CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY DEEPEN
THROUGH MID-EVENING...PARTICULARLY OVER NRN MO/WCNTRL IL. 0-6KM
SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS AND MAGNITUDE OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SUGGEST THAT SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY WITH LARGE HAIL. GREATEST
TORNADO THREAT WILL OCCUR AS STORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE TOWARD/ALONG
THE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN MO AND WCNTRL IL THROUGH
MID-EVENING. EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS IS LIKELY LATER
TONIGHT.
GIVEN THAT CONVECTION IS STRENGTHENING DOWNSTREAM OF THE CURRENT
TORNADO WATCH...ADDITIONAL WW/S TO THE EAST INTO IL MAY BE REQUIRED
THIS EVENING.
..RACY.. 06/03/2008
ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...EAX...
38679186 38749290 38739421 39419503 40099460 40469344
40038980 39548947 39088962 38869114 38719192
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-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
SEL9
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 439
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
600 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ILLINOIS
SMALL PART OF EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 600 PM
UNTIL 200 AM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF QUINCY
ILLINOIS TO 25 MILES SOUTH OF DANVILLE ILLINOIS. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 435...WW 437...WW 438...
DISCUSSION...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM LAST NIGHT/S MCS WAS BEGINNING TO
STRENGTHEN FROM PARTS OF CNTRL/NRN MO EWD INTO CNTRL IL. AS LARGER
SCALE HEIGHT FALLS BEGIN TO SPREAD EWD FROM THE PLAINS AND THE SSWLY
LLJ STRENGTHENS...THE BOUNDARY WILL TIGHTEN WITH CONVECTION
GRADUALLY DEEPENING THIS EVENING. ROUGHLY 50 KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR AND
MAGNITUDE OF MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES IS SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION...GENTLY BACKING NEAR-SFC
FLOW...LOW LCL ENVIRONMENT AND PRESENCE OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE
CONDUCIVE FOR TORNADOES WITH ANY SUPERCELL THIS EVENING.
LATER...ACTIVITY WILL MERGE INTO AN MCS WITH DMGG WINDS BECOMING
MORE LIKELY.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28030.
...RACY/THOMPSON
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 439
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
600 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ILLINOIS
SMALL PART OF EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 600 PM
UNTIL 200 AM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF QUINCY
ILLINOIS TO 25 MILES SOUTH OF DANVILLE ILLINOIS. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 435...WW 437...WW 438...
DISCUSSION...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM LAST NIGHT/S MCS WAS BEGINNING TO
STRENGTHEN FROM PARTS OF CNTRL/NRN MO EWD INTO CNTRL IL. AS LARGER
SCALE HEIGHT FALLS BEGIN TO SPREAD EWD FROM THE PLAINS AND THE SSWLY
LLJ STRENGTHENS...THE BOUNDARY WILL TIGHTEN WITH CONVECTION
GRADUALLY DEEPENING THIS EVENING. ROUGHLY 50 KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR AND
MAGNITUDE OF MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES IS SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION...GENTLY BACKING NEAR-SFC
FLOW...LOW LCL ENVIRONMENT AND PRESENCE OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE
CONDUCIVE FOR TORNADOES WITH ANY SUPERCELL THIS EVENING.
LATER...ACTIVITY WILL MERGE INTO AN MCS WITH DMGG WINDS BECOMING
MORE LIKELY.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28030.
...RACY/THOMPSON
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Re:
CrazyC83 wrote:SEL9
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 439
ROUGHLY 50 KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR AND
MAGNITUDE OF MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES IS SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION...GENTLY BACKING NEAR-SFC
FLOW...LOW LCL ENVIRONMENT AND PRESENCE OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE
CONDUCIVE FOR TORNADOES WITH ANY SUPERCELL THIS EVENING.
It's primed and ready to fire. Dewpoints are in the 70s from far eastern KS to southern IN. The 12h NAM 0Z Wed is showing high surface CAPE right over the ILX site, and EHI runs high from ILX to westcentral IN. Looks like another night ahead with interrupted sleep.
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Re: June 2-3: Severe weather in the Central US
here we go....
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
733 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2008
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN SCOTT COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
CENTRAL MORGAN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
* UNTIL 815 PM CDT.
* AT 733 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOTTERS WERE TRACKING A
TORNADO 2 MILES NORTHWEST OF ALSEY...OR ABOUT 3 MILES SOUTH OF
WINCHESTER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 26 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MURRAYVILLE...
WOODSON...
JACKSONVILLE...
THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 72 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 56 AND 69.
WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED...IT MEANS THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS
BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM...AND ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS SUPPORT THAT
ROTATION REACHING THE GROUND. A TORNADO MAY ALREADY BE ON THE
GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF
THIS DANGEROUS STORM...MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE LOWEST LEVEL OF THE
BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO NOT SEEK SHELTER
UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
733 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2008
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN SCOTT COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
CENTRAL MORGAN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
* UNTIL 815 PM CDT.
* AT 733 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOTTERS WERE TRACKING A
TORNADO 2 MILES NORTHWEST OF ALSEY...OR ABOUT 3 MILES SOUTH OF
WINCHESTER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 26 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MURRAYVILLE...
WOODSON...
JACKSONVILLE...
THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 72 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 56 AND 69.
WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED...IT MEANS THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS
BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM...AND ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS SUPPORT THAT
ROTATION REACHING THE GROUND. A TORNADO MAY ALREADY BE ON THE
GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF
THIS DANGEROUS STORM...MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE LOWEST LEVEL OF THE
BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO NOT SEEK SHELTER
UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.
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-
HurricaneBill
- Category 5
- Posts: 3420
- Joined: Sun Apr 11, 2004 5:51 pm
- Location: East Longmeadow, MA, USA
Re: June 2-3: Severe weather in the Central US
I don't think they should have cancelled the tornado watch for Ohio.
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-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
SEL0
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 440
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
725 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN KANSAS
EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 725 PM
UNTIL 100 AM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES SOUTH OF MEDICINE
LODGE KANSAS TO 25 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF CHANUTE KANSAS. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 435...WW 437...WW
438...WW 439...
DISCUSSION...SEVERAL CONVECTIVE THREATS WILL EVOLVE THROUGH THE
EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD ACROSS KS/OK. AN INTENSE SUPERCELL
IN NW OK WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS IN THE MOIST
AXIS N OF A STALLED BOUNDARY. MEANWHILE...ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG SEVERAL BOUNDARY SEGMENTS IN NRN OK AND ERN KS.
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 F AND BACKING/STRENGTHENING
LOW-LEVEL FLOW THIS EVENING COULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH A COUPLE
OF TORNADOES...AS WELL AS VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
CONVECTION MAY EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE SMALL MCS/S AS A
RESULT OF STORM MERGERS LATER TONIGHT.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27025.
...THOMPSON
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 440
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
725 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN KANSAS
EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 725 PM
UNTIL 100 AM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES SOUTH OF MEDICINE
LODGE KANSAS TO 25 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF CHANUTE KANSAS. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 435...WW 437...WW
438...WW 439...
DISCUSSION...SEVERAL CONVECTIVE THREATS WILL EVOLVE THROUGH THE
EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD ACROSS KS/OK. AN INTENSE SUPERCELL
IN NW OK WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS IN THE MOIST
AXIS N OF A STALLED BOUNDARY. MEANWHILE...ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG SEVERAL BOUNDARY SEGMENTS IN NRN OK AND ERN KS.
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 F AND BACKING/STRENGTHENING
LOW-LEVEL FLOW THIS EVENING COULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH A COUPLE
OF TORNADOES...AS WELL AS VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
CONVECTION MAY EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE SMALL MCS/S AS A
RESULT OF STORM MERGERS LATER TONIGHT.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27025.
...THOMPSON
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