June 4-7: Severe wx (Omaha tornado update)

[CrazyC83]

If, as expected, it is at least moderate risk every day through Friday, that would be 9 straight days of such (10 straight if Saturday is also so).

That must be a record...I can't remember anything like that ever happening before. (Thursday and maybe Friday could be high risk too)

[KWT]

Its certainly is very interesting carzy, as I said in the other thread this May has been really active, the la nina we had in the Spring no doubt helped and we are seeing this carry on into June as well.

[HarlequinBoy]

Joe Bastardi was impressed during his 'Big Dog' video with severe weather potential with a April/May type sub 990 mb storm working with June temps and dewpoints. He thinks the Day 3 Plains/Midwest threat area will be upgraded to MODERATE, maybe even HIGH

It stayed slight.

[RL3AO]

It looks like the GFS has shifted the low from SE Minnesota to Western Minnesota. I'm thinking the 30H area on D3 will shift west a little bit for day 2.

[RL3AO]

I'm expecting a pretty large 45H area for the Day 2.

[RL3AO]

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1237 AM CDT WED JUN 04 2008

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF SRN MN/SERN
SD/NRN AND WRN IA/ERN NEB/CNTRL AND ERN KS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES SWWD INTO THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS...

..SYNOPSIS

AN AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL EXIST OVER THE CONUS DURING
THE DAY TWO PERIOD WITH THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST BEING
DYNAMIC...UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES THAT WILL SHIFT EWD
INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. AN EMBEDDED 70-80 KT MIDLEVEL JET STREAK
INITIALLY OVER THE SRN ROCKIES WILL LIFT NEWD THROUGH THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS INTO MID MO VALLEY...CONTRIBUTING TO AN INCREASING
NEGATIVE-TILT TO UPPER SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...SURFACE CYCLONE INITIALLY OVER NWRN KS/SWRN NEB
WILL DEVELOP NNEWD INTO N-CNTRL/NERN NEB BY EARLY EVENING AND INTO
THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF THE N BY FRIDAY MORNING. ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT WILL CONCURRENTLY LIFT NWD THROUGH THE DAY...LIKELY EXTENDING
FROM THE SURFACE LOW ENEWD THROUGH SERN SD/SRN MN/CNTRL WI/CNTRL OR
NRN MI BY 06/00Z. A DRYLINE WILL STRETCH FROM THE LOW SWD THROUGH
CNTRL NEB/KS INTO WRN OK/NWRN TX AT THIS TIME.

--SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT OVER
PORTIONS OF KS/NEB/SD/MN/IA...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG...LONG-TRACKED TORNADOES--

..GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO SRN PLAINS

A VERY BROAD AND STRONG...SLY LLJ WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER ACROSS SYSTEM WARM SECTOR WITH DEWPOINTS LARGELY IN THE
60S...THOUGH SOME LOWER 70S ARE POSSIBLE INVOF WARM FRONT WHERE
SHALLOWER CBL MIXING IS ANTICIPATED. A PRONOUNCED EML WILL RESIDE
ABOVE THIS MOISTURE WITH AIR MASS BECOMING MODERATELY UNSTABLE BUT
STRONGLY CAPPED FROM WARM FRONT SWD ALONG DRYLINE. THE STRONGEST
INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF 2000-2500 J PER KG/ IS EXPECTED ALONG WARM
FRONT SWD ALONG CNTRL PLAINS PORTION OF DRYLINE WHERE STEEPER
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST. CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY MAY TEND TO
DECREASE SLIGHTLY FROM SRN KS SWD OWING VERY WARM MIDLEVEL
TEMPERATURE PROFILES.

A BAND OF TSTMS /MAINLY ELEVATED/ IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING THURSDAY
MORNING TO THE N OF SURFACE WARM FRONT FROM PORTIONS OF NEB/SD EWD
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...DRIVEN LARGELY BY WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ALONG NOSE OF LLJ AXIS. ELEVATED STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITHIN THIS SAME FORCING REGIME...WITH ACTIVITY
MOVING/DEVELOPING NEWD INTO PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND
UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE MOST INTENSE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
MAINLY LARGE HAIL GIVEN STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY
STRONG SHEAR THROUGH THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER.

MORE SIGNIFICANT...SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON FROM VICINITY OF WARM FRONT SWD ALONG DRYLINE AS
LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS ATTENDANT TO UPPER SYSTEM
BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD SYSTEM WARM SECTOR...EFFECTIVELY ERODING THE
CAP. VERTICAL SHEAR /BOTH LOW-LEVEL AND THROUGH A DEEP-LAYER/ WILL
BE QUITE STRONG FROM MDT RISK PORTION OF WARM FRONT SWD ALONG
DRYLINE WITH A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A FEW OF THE
TORNADOES COULD BE STRONG AND POTENTIALLY LONG-TRACKED OWING TO THE
STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND 40-50+ STORM MOTIONS.

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ISOLATED WITH SWD EXTENT ALONG
DRYLINE FROM KS INTO OK AND POSSIBLY N TX GIVEN THE VERY STRONG CAP
FORECAST. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG ERN EXTENSION OF RETREATING WARM FRONT ACROSS
WI/LOWER MI WHERE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES.

DIURNAL STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO GROW UPSCALE INTO A
QUASI-LINEAR MCS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE THREAT OF DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES CONTINUING AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT SURGING EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS.

..LOWER GREAT LAKES

SCATTERED DIURNAL TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN LOW-LEVEL WAA ZONE ALONG
MORE N-S ORIENTED WARM FRONT MOVING EWD ACROSS REGION. DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S COUPLED WITH MODEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG.
WHILE BOTH MARGINAL VERTICAL SHEAR AND CONSIDERABLE HEIGHT RISES
SHOULD LIMIT A MORE ORGANIZED THREAT...THE MORE INTENSE STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF SOME HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

..MEAD.. 06/04/2008

[weatherbud]

The latest forecast is for some interesting weather to take place across the Mid-Atlantic tomorrow afternoon and evening along a stationary front with sfc low pressure system riding along it. The potential for super cells and lines with bowing segments is possible but the Mid- Atlantic area will be split into three sections and we will break that down. Funny thing about tomorrows threat is if we combined the best dynamics for each area we would see the potential for a descent severe weather outbreak.

New York-Northern PA-Northern NJ:
Severe Weather Expected (Very Low Risk)- Gusty winds and possible flooding.

PHL metro area:
Severe Threat Expected (Slight Risk)- Damaging winds and flooding....isolated tornado.

DCA southward:
Severe Threat Expected (Slight Risk-moderate risk)- Not a moderate risk but definitely a little bit more then slight so will side in between. Potential for tornadoes, small hail, and damaging winds.

Here's the latest outlook:


More detailed outlook HERE

[CrazyC83]

Could we see high risk as soon as this afternoon?

[snoopj]

Could we see high risk as soon as this afternoon?

Who knows, but I'm getting really bored of seeing MDTs on the board all the time. Time to shake it up.

--j

[Weatherfreak14]

Could we see high risk as soon as this afternoon?

Who knows, but I'm getting really bored of seeing MDTs on the board all the time. Time to shake it up.

--j

I agree, I think this outbreak has a strong potiental for a HIGH risk... All the right stuff is coming together for a MAJOR OUTBREAK! I really think starting tommrow would could be seeing Plenty of EF4s possibly touching down.

[CrazyC83]

Could we see high risk as soon as this afternoon?

Who knows, but I'm getting really bored of seeing MDTs on the board all the time. Time to shake it up.

--j

You don't normally see things like "No Tstms Forecast" this time of year though...

[Bunkertor]

Could we see high risk as soon as this afternoon?

Don´t think so. They reduced the CAPE prediction in the mixed layer to 2000-2500 J/kg...for Day 2

[snoopj]

Could we see high risk as soon as this afternoon?

Who knows, but I'm getting really bored of seeing MDTs on the board all the time. Time to shake it up.

--j

You don't normally see things like "No Tstms Forecast" this time of year though...

My attempt at sarcasm is lost yet again.

--j

[Mightybri]

They raised it to moderate.

[Bunkertor]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1199
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1051 AM CDT WED JUN 04 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN PA...ERN VA PNHDL...NRN VA...WRN AND CNTRL MD

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 041551Z - 041715Z

A WW TO THE EAST OF TORNADO WW 446 WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 18Z.

WITHIN A BELT OF STRONGER WESTERLIES...LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHING
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP EAST NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY. THIS IS OCCURRING IN THE FACE OF BROADER SCALE MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT RISES...DOWNSTREAM OF THE VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. BUT...FORCING SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO
MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALREADY UNDERWAY TO THE WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS.

A SIGNIFICANT CLUSTER OF STORMS...NOW EVOLVING ACROSS NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA...APPEARS LIKELY TO REACH THE ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS BY AROUND
17Z...BEFORE SPREADING ACROSS AND EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN BETWEEN
17-20Z. A LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH PRIOR
CONVECTION...AND THE SYNOPTIC FRONT...MAY PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THIS
DEVELOPMENT...ACROSS THE EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE INTO THE
VICINITY OF THE PENNSYLVANIA/MARYLAND BORDER. WHILE THE PRIMARY
ACTIVITY MAY INITIALLY REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE WASHINGTON
D.C./BALTIMORE AREA...MORE ISOLATED STORMS COULD BEGIN TO FORM
ACROSS NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS INHIBITION WEAKENS BY THE PEAK HEATING
HOURS.

MIXED LAYER CAPE INCREASING IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG UPDRAFTS. AND...AS A WEAKENING UPPER JET
STREAK /BUT STILL LIKELY GREATER THAN 50 KT AT 500 MB/ OVERSPREADS
THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE STRONG
AND SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS...IN ADDITION TO AN ORGANIZED
STORMS CLUSTER CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS.

[CrazyC83]

It seems we have two threats here: remnants of the MCS/tornadoes yesterday, and the beginning of the next big outbreak.

[CrazyC83]

Tornado threat for today now hatched:

SPC AC 041630

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT WED JUN 04 2008

VALID 041630Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NRN KS INTO SRN NEB...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN WV THROUGH MUCH OF
VA...MD AND DE...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS
THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY...OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGIONS...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER PATTERN OF RECENT DAYS WILL CONTINUE THIS
PERIOD AS WA/ORE UPR LOW AMPLIFIES SE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE NRN GULF ACROSS THE SERN STATES.
EXISTING BELT OF FAST WSW FLOW FROM THE CNTRL/SRN PLNS TO THE OH VLY
WILL REMAIN STRONG BUT BACK WITH TIME...WHILE EQUALLY STRONG WLY
WINDS PERSIST OVER THE EAST.

AT THE SFC...FRONT NOW EXTENDING WWD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC CST TO
THE CNTRL PLNS SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY MOST OF TODAY. LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT...EXPECT WRN PART OF THE FRONT TO BEGIN MOVING N
ACROSS KS/MO AND IL AS LOW- TO MID-LVL FLOW BACKS...AND LEE LOW
DEEPENS IN ERN CO/WRN KS.

...NWRN OK/KS INTO MO/NEB/IA...
VERY MOIST AIR WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 60S WILL PERSIST ALONG
AND S OF THE STNRY/WARM FRONT OVER THE PLNS/LWR MO VLY...AND E OF
THE DRY LINE EXTENDING SSW FROM WRN KS SFC LOW. COMBINED WITH STEEP
MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION WILL BOOST SBCAPE TO
2500-3000 J/KG FROM NRN OK NE INTO MUCH OF CNTRL/ERN KS ...SRN
NEB...NW MO AND SW IA. NEVERTHELESS...EML CAP SHOULD KEEP REGION
FREE OF DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UNTIL LATE AFTN.

COMBINATION OF STRONG HEATING AND FRONTAL UPLIFT SHOULD SUPPORT
SFC-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE IN THE DAY ALONG FRONT IN NRN KS
AND SRN NEB...SPREADING INTO NWRN MO AND WRN IA DURING THE EVENING.
FARTHER SW...MORE ISOLD ACTIVITY MAY FORM IN NW OK/S CNTRL KS...NEAR
INTERSECTION OF DRY LINE WITH SHALLOW FRONTAL SEGMENT LEFT OVER
REGION FROM YESTERDAY.

GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND CONTINUING PRESENCE OF SEASONABLY
STRONG SWLY MID-LVL FLOW ATOP STRONG SSWLY LLJ...SUPERCELLS WILL BE
LIKELY. THESE COULD YIELD VERY LARGE HAIL...HIGH WIND AND
TORNADOES. THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT MAY DEVELOP THIS EVENING
INVOF THE KS SFC LOW...ENEWD ALONG THE WARM FRONT INTO CNTRL/NRN KS
AND INTO SRN NEB AS LLJ STRENGTHENS TOWARD SUNSET.

STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD NEWD THROUGH THE MID
MO VLY TONIGHT ALONG NOSE OF STRENGTHENING/BACKING 60-65 KT SSWLY
LLJ. MANY OF THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY LOCALLY
DMGG WIND/ISOLD TORNADOES.

...CNTRL HI PLNS...
DIURNAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME NW OF WRN KS/ERN
CO SFC LOW IN NE CO/SW NEB AND PERHAPS NW KS/SE WY. MODERATELY
STRONG INSTABILITY/VERTICAL SHEAR AND LACK OF LINEAR FORCING WILL
FOSTER SUPERCELLULAR STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DMGG WIND AND
POSSIBLE TORNADOES. THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS THAT
CONTINUES E OR ENE INTO NW KS AND CNTRL NEB OVERNIGHT.


...MID ATLANTIC REGION...
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS WELL-ESTABLISHED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...S OF STNRY FRONT EXTENDING EWD FROM CNTRL PA TO NEAR NYC.
FARTHER S...A WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT STORMS ATTM
EXTENDS FROM N OF CRW ESE TO N OF RIC. SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST THAT
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR OVER WV/VA/MD AND DE.
GIVEN MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND FAIRLY STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE
RATES...THIS SHOULD YIELD SBCAPE TO AOA 2000 J/KG...WITH SLIGHTLY
GREATER VALUES POSSIBLE NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

UPSTREAM...MCV NOW OVER IND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE E AT ABOUT 40 KTS.
COMBINATION OF MCV-INDUCED ASCENT...AND UPLIFT ALONG FRONT...OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN...SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
STORM COVERAGE AS HEATING DESTABILIZES REGION TODAY.

WIND PROFILES WILL FEATURE 40+ KT DEEP...UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY
FLOW...WITH MINIMAL CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR. THIS SUGGESTS THAT WHILE
SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS MAY OCCUR...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARIES...THE MAIN OVERALL
ORGANIZATIONAL MODE OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE FORWARD-PROPAGATING
LINES. EMBEDDED STORMS COULD YIELD DMGG WIND...SVR HAIL AND PERHAPS
A COUPLE TORNADOES THROUGH EARLY EVENING...BEFORE MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY MOVES OFFSHORE/WEAKENS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE ABOVE CONVECTION...ADDITIONAL WAVES OF WEAKER
STORMS MAY PERSIST OVER NRN PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY.

..DIAL/GRAMS/CORFIDI.. 06/04/2008

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1640Z (12:40PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[CrazyC83]

SEL7

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 447
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MARYLAND
SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA
EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA INCLUDING THE PANHANDLE
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1250 PM UNTIL
800 PM EDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTHWEST OF
STAUNTON VIRGINIA TO 30 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF PATUXENT RIVER
MARYLAND. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 446...

DISCUSSION...BAND OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WV WILL TRACK
EASTWARD AND AFFECT PARTS OF SOUTHERN PA...WESTERN AND CENTRAL
MD...AND NORTHERN VA THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER ISOLATED STORMS ARE
LIKELY TO FORM IN MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL VA. STRONG
WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT AND DEGREE OF INSTABILITY INDICATE A RISK OF
SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL..AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES. BOW ECHO FORMATION IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY WITH
AN ASSOCIATED ENHANCED RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27035.


...HART

[CrazyC83]

ZCZC SPCPWOSPC ALL
WOUS40 KWNS 041715
DEZ000-KSZ000-MDZ000-NEZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-050115-

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1215 PM CDT WED JUN 04 2008

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER PARTS
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

DELAWARE
NORTHERN KANSAS
MARYLAND
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
VIRGINIA
EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA

ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM...THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY...OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC

...ERN WV THROUGH VA...MD AND DEL...

THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE IN ADVANCE OF ONGOING LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST ACROSS WV WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY
ALREADY IN PLACE OVER VA. VERTICAL WIND PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR
THIS LINE OF STORMS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING EAST INTO THE AXIS OF
STRONGER INSTABILITY. THE LINE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ORGANIZED WITH
A ROTATING COMMA HEAD ON ITS NRN END AS IT CONTINUES EWD THROUGH THE
MID ATLANTIC. STEEP LOW LEVEL AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH
MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR CORRIDORS OF
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND. OTHER MORE DISCRETE STORMS MAY ALSO
DEVELOP ALONG TRAILING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS WELL AS AHEAD OF THE
LINE...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.


...NRN KS THROUGH SRN AND CNTRL NEB...

A WARM FRONT EXTENDS NORTHEAST THROUGH NE KS FROM A SURFACE LOW IN S
CNTRL KS. RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND STEEP
LAPSE RATES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG INSTABILITY IN THE VICINITY
OF THIS BOUNDARY FROM NRN KS INTO SRN NEB. HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERE
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CAPPED IN THIS REGION UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING WHEN AN INTENSIFYING SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE RETREATING FRONT AND RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS
WITH A THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES...A FEW OF WHICH
COULD BE STRONG. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER WEST OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS AND SPREAD EAST THROUGH NEB DURING THE EVENING. THE PRIMARY
THREAT WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL AS THE
EVENING PROGRESSES.

THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER
SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER
RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.

..DIAL.. 06/04/2008

$$

[CrazyC83]

Awaiting the 1730Z Day 2 update - upgrade to high risk?