#62 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Jun 04, 2008 12:46 pm
SPC AC 041738
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1238 PM CDT WED JUN 04 2008
VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SERN SD...SRN MN...ERN
NEB....NRN AND WRN IA...CENTRAL AND ERN KS...AND N CENTRAL OK...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
PLAINS/MID MO VALLEY REGION...
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE UPPER TROUGH/LOW CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD INTO THE PLAINS...WHILE TAKING
ON A NEGATIVE TILT LATE. THIS TROUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A VERY
STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD...INCLUDING A SSWLY MID-LEVEL JET IN
EXCESS OF 80 KT FORECAST TO ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND
INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AT THE SURFACE...A ROUGHLY 990 MB LOW INITIALLY EXPECTED OVER WRN KS
WILL MOVE SLOWLY NNEWD WITH TIME...LIKELY REACHING A POSITION INVOF
ERN SD BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AS THE LOW MOVES NWD...WARM FRONT
EXTENDING E OF THE LOW WILL ALSO MAKE SLOW NWD PROGRESS...CROSSING
ERN NEB/IA/SRN WI/LOWER MI THROUGH THE DAY...AND THEN ACROSS MUCH OF
MN/WI/UPPER MI DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...A
TRAILING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS
THROUGH THE DAY...AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE LOW SWD ACROSS ERN
NEB/WRN IA...ERN KS/WRN OK...AND INTO WRN TX BY 06/12Z.
...PORTIONS OF N TX NWD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND NEWD INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES...
A MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MID
MO VALLEY REGION FOR DAY 2 /THURSDAY JUNE 5/. HIGH CONFIDENCE
EXISTS THAT WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
WEATHER WILL OCCUR FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...THOUGH SOME QUESTIONS WITH RESPECT TO STORM MODE -- AND
THEREFORE MOST LIKELY SEVERE WEATHER TYPE -- REMAIN.
OVERALL...EXPECT STORMS ONGOING WITHIN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT N OF
THE WARM FRONT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD -- ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN
PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY -- TO SHIFT NEWD WITH TIME. SEVERE THREAT --
PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF HAIL -- MAY ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS
WITHIN THIS REGION.
MEANWHILE...A VERY MOIST BUT CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER IS FORECAST
DURING THE DAY...WHILE DAYTIME HEATING IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEP
LAPSE RATES ALOFT RESULTS IN MODERATE DESTABILIZATION. AS HEIGHTS
FALL ALOFT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE COLD FRONT
MOVES EWD ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS...CAP SHOULD WEAKEN
SLOWLY...ALLOWING INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON -- LIKELY ACROSS NEB/KS. STORMS WILL LIKELY EXPAND SWD
ALONG THE FRONT WITH TIME...AND ALSO EWD ACROSS IA/SRN MN/WI INVOF
RETREATING WARM FRONT.
ALONG WITH FAVORABLY-UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER
WIND FIELD IS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. STRONG SLY/SSELY FLOW AT LOW
LEVELS WILL VEER AND INCREASE WITH HEIGHT TO NEAR 80 KT FROM THE SSW
AT MID LEVELS...RESULTING IN SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG UPDRAFT
ORGANIZATION/ROTATION. STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS SHOULD
RAPIDLY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED THREATS FOR
VERY LARGE HAIL...STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS...AND
POTENTIALLY-SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES.
WHILE STORM MODE WILL LIKELY BE SUPERCELLULAR INITIALLY...MERIDIONAL
NATURE OF THE FLOW FIELD ALOFT AND LINEAR FORCING ALONG THE FRONT OF
AN OTHERWISE POTENTIALLY-CAPPED AIRMASS RAISES QUESTIONS WITH
RESPECT TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE STORM MODE WITH TIME. AT LEAST SOME
POTENTIAL EXISTS THAT THE DOMINANT MODE BECOMES LINEAR THROUGH THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...THOUGH STILL WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. WHILE
THESE QUESTIONS REGARDING STORM MODE MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO DISCERN
ATTM WHETHER THE EVENT WILL END UP BEING PRIMARILY A TORNADO
OUTBREAK...A WIND EVENT WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED TORNADO EVENTS...OR
SOME COMBINATION OF THE TWO...THE EVENT SHOULD NONETHELESS PROVE TO
BE A SIGNIFICANT/DAMAGING EVENT ACROSS AN AREA CENTERED OVER KS/SRN
AND ERN NEB/WRN IA.
..GOSS.. 06/04/2008
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