Current power update:
PEPCO - about 111,000 without (DC/MD suburbs)
Dominion - about 220,000 without (VA suburbs)
BG&E - about 22,000 without (Baltimore area)
Current total: about 355,000 customers without power
June 4-7: Severe wx (Omaha tornado update)
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: June 4-7: Mid-Atlantic derecho, Plains tornadoes?
wbug1 wrote:I was looking at D.C cams and it looks like many on the west side are out (power out). I don't see any signs of really high winds, looked like about 60 mph from some of the cams and no obvious debris on the streets. Perhaps lightning strikes caused the outage, or high winds elsewhere.
Probably trees falling on power lines elsewhere. Only about 11,000 are without power in DC proper, the suburbs are much harder hit.
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wbug1
Re: June 4-7: Mid-Atlantic derecho, Plains tornadoes?
Uh oh.
1905 FALLS CHURCH CITY OF FALLS CHU VA 3888 7717 TORNADO TOUCHDOWN REPORT AT ANNANDALE ROAD (LWX)
1905 FALLS CHURCH CITY OF FALLS CHU VA 3888 7717 TORNADO TOUCHDOWN REPORT AT ANNANDALE ROAD (LWX)
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wbug1
Re: June 4-7: Mid-Atlantic derecho, Plains tornadoes?
The storm is about to move through Baltimore.
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re:
btangy wrote:Some peak wind gust reports from around the DC area in the last hour or two:
Camp Springs: 66mph
Manassas: 62mph
DC Reagan: 59mph
Baltimore: 55mph
Looks like widespread gusts around 60mph. Definitely will be many reports of tree and power line damage.
Probably local gusts over 80 mph as well.
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 451
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
245 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 245 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
KEARNEY NEBRASKA TO 25 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF OMAHA NEBRASKA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 446...WW 447...WW
448...WW 449...WW 450...
DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL NEB IN VICINITY OF WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES. THESE
STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR WITH A RISK OF VERY LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...AND
THREAT WILL LIKELY INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
STRENGTHEN.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25030.
...HART
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 451
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
245 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 245 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
KEARNEY NEBRASKA TO 25 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF OMAHA NEBRASKA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 446...WW 447...WW
448...WW 449...WW 450...
DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL NEB IN VICINITY OF WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES. THESE
STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR WITH A RISK OF VERY LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...AND
THREAT WILL LIKELY INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
STRENGTHEN.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25030.
...HART
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wbug1
Re: June 4-7: Mid-Atlantic derecho, Plains tornadoes?
Falls church is a suburb (?) of Washington or Arlington. Tornado touchdown. Storm has moved out of Washington now. Line now has probably just moved through Baltimore.
385,000 is a lot without power!
385,000 is a lot without power!
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: June 4-7: Mid-Atlantic derecho, Plains tornadoes?
wbug1 wrote:Falls church is a suburb (?) of Washington or Arlington. Tornado touchdown. Storm has moved out of Washington now. Line now has probably just moved through Baltimore.
385,000 is a lot without power!
Yep, it's now a bit over 400,000 customers as more come in from Baltimore mainly.
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Re: June 4-7: Mid-Atlantic derecho, Plains tornadoes?
New Day 1 Outlook:
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CDT WED JUN 04 2008
VALID 042000Z - 051200Z
..THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SRN WF
CENTRAL AND NRN
VA...MUCH OF MD...DE...AND SRN NJ...
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN AND ERN
NEB...NRN KS...SWRN IA...AND NWRN MO...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE W-E ZONE FROM
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...
..OH VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
SEVERAL STORM CLUSTERS/BOWING SEGMENTS CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY EWD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...INCLUDING A SIGNIFICANT
BOW ECHO MOVING EWD AT 50 KT TOWARD THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. THIS
BOW HAS PRODUCED WIDESPREAD WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 TO 55 KT...AND
WITH FAVORABLE DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS...EXPECT A SWATH OF DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL TO EXTEND TO THE NJ/DE COAST OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
ELSEWHERE...WITH A MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS
THIS ENTIRE REGION NEAR AND S OF THE W-E SURFACE FRONT...EXPECT
UPSTREAM STORM CLUSTERS TO PERSIST AS WELL...CONTINUING THROUGH THE
EVENING. ALONG WITH FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...BELT OF
STRONG W-E FLOW IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE SUGGESTS AN
ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...AND AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OR TWO WITH THE ONGOING STORMS.
..THE PLAINS EWD INTO THE MID MO/MID MS VALLEYS
VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS INDICATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND EWD INTO IL...NEAR AND S OF THE W-E SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE.
ELY UPSLOPE FLOW N OF THE BOUNDARY IS RESULTING IN STORM DEVELOPMENT
OVER NERN CO/SERN WY...WITH ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING
EWD INTO SRN AND ERN NEB.
WITH TIME...EXPECT STORMS TO MOVE OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN AND ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS...WHILE DEVELOPING CONVECTION ACROSS NEB INCREASES
IN COVERAGE WITH TIME. OTHER/MORE ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP SWD
INTO SWRN KS/WRN OK INVOF THE DRYLINE. EVENTUALLY...AS A SLY
LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES TO NEAR 70 KT THIS EVENING...STORMS SHOULD
MERGE/EXPAND ACROSS NEB AND PARTS OF KS...AND SPREAD NEWD ACROSS THE
MID MO VALLEY REGION.
ALONG WITH FAVORABLY-MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...STRENGTHENING SLYS
AT LOW LEVELS BENEATH MID LEVEL SWLYS IN EXCESS OF 50 KT WILL RESULT
IN SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. THEREFORE...EXPECT THE SEVERE
THREAT TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS STORMS
EXPAND IN COVERAGE. ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...ISOLATED/POTENTIALLY-STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE...GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE W-E SURFACE FRONT AND
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WITH TIME.
..GOSS.. 06/04/2008
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CDT WED JUN 04 2008
VALID 042000Z - 051200Z
..THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SRN WF
CENTRAL AND NRN
VA...MUCH OF MD...DE...AND SRN NJ...
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN AND ERN
NEB...NRN KS...SWRN IA...AND NWRN MO...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE W-E ZONE FROM
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...
..OH VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
SEVERAL STORM CLUSTERS/BOWING SEGMENTS CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY EWD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...INCLUDING A SIGNIFICANT
BOW ECHO MOVING EWD AT 50 KT TOWARD THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. THIS
BOW HAS PRODUCED WIDESPREAD WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 TO 55 KT...AND
WITH FAVORABLE DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS...EXPECT A SWATH OF DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL TO EXTEND TO THE NJ/DE COAST OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
ELSEWHERE...WITH A MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS
THIS ENTIRE REGION NEAR AND S OF THE W-E SURFACE FRONT...EXPECT
UPSTREAM STORM CLUSTERS TO PERSIST AS WELL...CONTINUING THROUGH THE
EVENING. ALONG WITH FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...BELT OF
STRONG W-E FLOW IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE SUGGESTS AN
ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...AND AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OR TWO WITH THE ONGOING STORMS.
..THE PLAINS EWD INTO THE MID MO/MID MS VALLEYS
VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS INDICATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND EWD INTO IL...NEAR AND S OF THE W-E SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE.
ELY UPSLOPE FLOW N OF THE BOUNDARY IS RESULTING IN STORM DEVELOPMENT
OVER NERN CO/SERN WY...WITH ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING
EWD INTO SRN AND ERN NEB.
WITH TIME...EXPECT STORMS TO MOVE OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN AND ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS...WHILE DEVELOPING CONVECTION ACROSS NEB INCREASES
IN COVERAGE WITH TIME. OTHER/MORE ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP SWD
INTO SWRN KS/WRN OK INVOF THE DRYLINE. EVENTUALLY...AS A SLY
LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES TO NEAR 70 KT THIS EVENING...STORMS SHOULD
MERGE/EXPAND ACROSS NEB AND PARTS OF KS...AND SPREAD NEWD ACROSS THE
MID MO VALLEY REGION.
ALONG WITH FAVORABLY-MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...STRENGTHENING SLYS
AT LOW LEVELS BENEATH MID LEVEL SWLYS IN EXCESS OF 50 KT WILL RESULT
IN SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. THEREFORE...EXPECT THE SEVERE
THREAT TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS STORMS
EXPAND IN COVERAGE. ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...ISOLATED/POTENTIALLY-STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE...GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE W-E SURFACE FRONT AND
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WITH TIME.
..GOSS.. 06/04/2008
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: June 4-7: Mid-Atlantic derecho, Plains tornadoes?
A second derecho this evening???
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1205
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0304 PM CDT WED JUN 04 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...WEST VIRGINIA INTO MUCH OF NRN AND CNTRL VA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 447...450...
VALID 042004Z - 042200Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 447...450...CONTINUES.
DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY INCREASE ONCE AGAIN NEAR/JUST SOUTH OF
WASHINGTON D.C. BY AROUND 00Z OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
IN THE WAKE OF THE DAMAGING SEVERE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WHICH
HAS SWEPT ACROSS THE WASHINGTON D.C. AREA...AIR MASS RECOVERY IS
UNDERWAY TO THE LEE OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AREAS AS FAR NORTH AS
CHARLOTTESVILLE DO NOT APPEAR TO HAVE BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED BY
OUTFLOW...AS ANOTHER MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
ORGANIZE ACROSS CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. THIS IS OCCURRING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE LAST IMPULSE/MID-LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH EMANATING FROM THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY. AND...FORCING IS EXPECTED TO HELP MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS BY AROUND 22Z. RUC GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT A NARROW BELT OF 50+ KT 500 MB FLOW WILL LINGER
ACROSS THIS REGION...INTO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AREA...THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. AND...ANOTHER SWATH OF DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA DURING THE 23-01Z TIME FRAME. WHILE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR THIS MAY BE JUST SOUTH OF PRIOR TRACK...IT
STILL SEEMS POSSIBLE THAT MUCH OF THE WASHINGTON D.C. METRO AREA
COULD BE IMPACTED BY THIS SECOND SYSTEM.
..KERR.. 06/04/2008
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...
38998069 39067966 39157863 39357778 38977692 38417687
37897714 37617840 37647950 37678015 37858102 38338132
38578109
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1205
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0304 PM CDT WED JUN 04 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...WEST VIRGINIA INTO MUCH OF NRN AND CNTRL VA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 447...450...
VALID 042004Z - 042200Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 447...450...CONTINUES.
DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY INCREASE ONCE AGAIN NEAR/JUST SOUTH OF
WASHINGTON D.C. BY AROUND 00Z OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
IN THE WAKE OF THE DAMAGING SEVERE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WHICH
HAS SWEPT ACROSS THE WASHINGTON D.C. AREA...AIR MASS RECOVERY IS
UNDERWAY TO THE LEE OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AREAS AS FAR NORTH AS
CHARLOTTESVILLE DO NOT APPEAR TO HAVE BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED BY
OUTFLOW...AS ANOTHER MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
ORGANIZE ACROSS CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. THIS IS OCCURRING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE LAST IMPULSE/MID-LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH EMANATING FROM THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY. AND...FORCING IS EXPECTED TO HELP MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS BY AROUND 22Z. RUC GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT A NARROW BELT OF 50+ KT 500 MB FLOW WILL LINGER
ACROSS THIS REGION...INTO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AREA...THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. AND...ANOTHER SWATH OF DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA DURING THE 23-01Z TIME FRAME. WHILE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR THIS MAY BE JUST SOUTH OF PRIOR TRACK...IT
STILL SEEMS POSSIBLE THAT MUCH OF THE WASHINGTON D.C. METRO AREA
COULD BE IMPACTED BY THIS SECOND SYSTEM.
..KERR.. 06/04/2008
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...
38998069 39067966 39157863 39357778 38977692 38417687
37897714 37617840 37647950 37678015 37858102 38338132
38578109
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wbug1
Re: June 4-7: Mid-Atlantic derecho, Plains tornadoes?
Those three areas of storms are a train following each other.
also
1945 HUNTINGTOWN CALVERT MD 3862 7661 TORNADO TOUCHDOWN -- PRELIMINARY. (LWX)
1945 HUNTINGTON FAIRFAX VA 3878 7707 TORNADO TOUCHDOWN (LWX)
also
1945 HUNTINGTOWN CALVERT MD 3862 7661 TORNADO TOUCHDOWN -- PRELIMINARY. (LWX)
1945 HUNTINGTON FAIRFAX VA 3878 7707 TORNADO TOUCHDOWN (LWX)
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wbug1
Re: June 4-7: Mid-Atlantic derecho, Plains tornadoes?
Tornado warning near Wray, Colorado. 2 strong cells in the area.
..and tornado warning southwest of Fort Morgan, Colorado.
..and tornado warning southwest of Fort Morgan, Colorado.
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: June 4-7: Mid-Atlantic derecho, Plains tornadoes?
1 person killed by a fallen tree in the derecho: http://www.wusa9.com/news/local/story.a ... &catid=158
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wbug1
Re: June 4-7: Mid-Atlantic derecho, Plains tornadoes?
I can't see the video because the colours are messed up on my player.
http://www.nbc4.com/videostream/9476753/detail.html
http://www.nbc4.com/videostream/9476753/detail.html
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