June 4-7: Severe wx (Omaha tornado update)

[HarlequinBoy]

Just to compare tornado threats - All high risk days this year (Super Tuesday, 3/15, 5/22, 5/29) had 30% tornado risks, to today's 15%. I wouldn't be surprised if the SPC went 30% in the next update though. Although I think only one had a 60% wind risk. I don't really remember.

[HarlequinBoy]

Normally our meteorologists here don't get all worked up over the weather as it is normal here but this system has them all on edge!!!!

I consider awareness a pretty good thing. Esp. since your area is in a HIGH risk.

[CrazyC83]

Severe cells in the high risk area now...still elevated though...

[snoopj]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 461
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1055 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN IOWA
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA
EXTREME SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1055 AM UNTIL
700 PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 115 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
BROKEN BOW NEBRASKA TO 25 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF DENISON IOWA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 458...WW 459...WW 460...

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NEB...SPREADING INTO WESTERN IA AND SOUTHEAST SD. STRONG
LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES...AMPLE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY...AND
PRESENCE OF MULTIPLE SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL POSE A RISK OF
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF STRONG TORNADOES. VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040.


...HART

[CrazyC83]

No surprise it is PDS.

[Weatherfreak14]

here we start a potientally historic day.

[Melissa]

Normally our meteorologists here don't get all worked up over the weather as it is normal here but this system has them all on edge!!!!

I've never seen them as worked up as they are, either. Kinda makes me nervous.

[KWT]

Still no tornado wanrins but thats to be expected till the storms root better to the boundary layer. Anyway some severe thunderstorm warninfs out however...this is going to be a very busy day I feel and everyone keep safe!

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
1108 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2008

NEC003-107-119-139-051630-
/O.CON.KOAX.SV.W.0123.000000T0000Z-080605T1630Z/
MADISON NE-ANTELOPE NE-PIERCE NE-KNOX NE-
1108 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 AM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN KNOX...WESTERN PIERCE...EASTERN ANTELOPE AND
NORTHWESTERN MADISON COUNTIES...

AT 1106 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS 60 TO 70 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
PLAINVIEW...OR 31 MILES NORTHWEST OF NORFOLK...MOVING NORTH AT 55
MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...CREIGHTON...BAZILE MILLS...WAUSA...
CENTER AND BLOOMFIELD.

THIS STORM MAY PRODUCE HAIL 3/4 INCH IN DIAMETER OR LARGER. SEEK A
STURDY SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND GLASS DOORS.

THIS STORM MAY PRODUCE WINDS OF 60 TO 70 MPH. GO TO THE LOWEST LEVEL
OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND GLASS DOORS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT THURSDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHWESTERN IOWA AND EASTERN NEBRASKA.

LAT...LON 4267 9788 4255 9750 4193 9784 4202 9816
TIME...MOT...LOC 1608Z 200DEG 48KT 4241 9779

$$

DERGAN

Hopefully its not historic for the wrong reasons...

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1225
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1108 AM CDT THU JUN 05 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN CO...THE OK PNHDL...WRN KS...SW NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 459...

VALID 051608Z - 051715Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 459
CONTINUES.

A NEW WW MAY BE ISSUED FOR THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY 17Z...BUT MAIN
SEVERE THREAT IS TO THE NORTH/EAST OF REGION.

INSTABILITY ABOVE SURFACE COLD FRONT REMAINS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
VIGOROUS ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ACTIVITY APPEARS FOCUSED
NEAR LOWER/MID LEVEL WIND SHIFT...ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO...IN THE
WAKE OF AN INITIAL IMPULSE/SPEED MAXIMUM EMANATING FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS UPPER TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER AREA BETWEEN NOW
AND 19-20Z. AT THE SAME TIME...AS THE MAIN UPPER IMPULSE SHIFTS
EAST NORTHEAST OF THE FOUR CORNERS...TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS...A
SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN AREA OF FOCUSED MID-LEVEL
FORCING ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO/SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO THE TEXAS/
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AREA. EVEN IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
AN INCREASINGLY WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL
BE SUPPORTIVE OF THE RISK FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS NEAR
STRONGEST STORMS...IN ADDITION TO THE RISK FOR SMALL HAIL.

..KERR.. 06/05/2008


ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

37860379 39620290 40830244 41200159 40750084 40000102
38900124 37810127 37250106 36810111 36330186 36610296

[CrazyC83]

2nd PDS watch coming:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1226
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1113 AM CDT THU JUN 05 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL KS...NWRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 051613Z - 051745Z

TSTM INITIATION IS EXPECTED ALONG COLD FRONT NEAR 18Z ACROSS CNTRL
KS AND INTO NWRN OK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS FORCED ASCENT INCREASES
ALONG BOUNDARY AND CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WEAKENS. AN EXTREMELY
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD RESULT IN RAPID
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT INITIALLY...WITH ATTENDANT TORNADO/HAIL/WIND
THREATS. A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED BY 18Z.

16Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES AN 989 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTROID INVOF EAR WITH N/S-ORIENTED COLD FRONT STRETCHING INTO
HARPER COUNTY OK TO A DRY LINE INTERSECTION IN THE NERN TX
PANHANDLE. CU DEVELOPMENT HAS COMMENCED ALONG THE FRONT INDICATIVE
OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT OVERSPREADING THE BOUNDARY AS POTENT SHORT
WAVE TROUGH EJECTS ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES. LATEST OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CAPPING INVERSION RAPIDLY WEAKENING
ESPECIALLY ACROSS S-CNTRL KS...WITH MLCAPES ALREADY AOA 2500 J/KG.
KINEMATIC FIELDS ARE INTENSE THROUGH THE LOW/MID-LEVELS...AIDING IN
EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES/HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS ACTIVITY RAPIDLY SHIFTS EWD. THE LARGEST UNCERTAINTY IS
HOW QUICKLY THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTIVE MODE FROM SUPERCELLS TO
LINE-SEGMENTS SHOULD OCCUR GIVEN THE MERIDIONAL FLOW REGIME ROUGHLY
PARALLEL TO THE INITIATION BOUNDARY. THIS WILL LIKELY MODULATE THE
OVERALL SIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT VERSUS A SEVERE WIND THREAT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.

..GRAMS.. 06/05/2008


ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...AMA...

40129742 40029664 38139677 36899732 35989876 35969965
36180016 36909986 38439923 39599909 40059909 40139797

[wx247]

Did you all see the probabilities on that PDS Watch? Wow. Greater than 95% for tornadoes and 60% for F2-F5s.

[KWT]

So from the looks of the discussion we will start of with more discrete supercells that will slowly evolve into like a line of cells with a higher straight wind risk?

[snoopj]

So from the looks of the discussion we will start of with more discrete supercells that will slowly evolve into like a line of cells with a higher straight wind risk?

Sounds like it. The uncertainty right now is how long the supercells take to evolve into the linear setups.

--j

[Melissa]

Did you all see the probabilities on that PDS Watch? Wow. Greater than 95% for tornadoes and 60% for F2-F5s.

Has anyone ever seen the percentage this high?

[Weatherfreak14]

IMO, i think they may evolve pretty slowly.. I expect 2-7pm CDT It will be plenty of descreate supercells. Then i expect around 6-8pm CDT the cells starting to become more linear, then after 9PM CDT it will be mostly linear and a few descreate supercell out ahead of the main line....??? Really this is just what I think could play out..

[Bunkertor]

Are there any watches that survived the night ?

[KWT]

Its really hard to know to be honest, however whatever does occur we will have a very long day to come because we already have quite a few severe thunderstorm warnings out there and its not even midday in the central part of the USA!

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1124 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2008

SDC009-023-043-067-051645-
/O.CON.KFSD.SV.W.0068.000000T0000Z-080605T1645Z/
CHARLES MIX SD-DOUGLAS SD-HUTCHINSON SD-BON HOMME SD-
1124 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1145 AM CDT
FOR WESTERN BON HOMME...WESTERN HUTCHINSON...DOUGLAS AND SOUTHEASTERN
CHARLES MIX COUNTIES...

AT 1124 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF
BALL SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE
STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES WEST OF
ARMOUR TO DELMONT TO 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF AVON...OR ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES NORTH OF LAKE ANDES TO 20 MILES EAST OF LAKE
ANDES TO 20 MILES EAST OF PICKSTOWN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 48 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
CORSICA...HARRISON AROUND 1130 AM CDT...
TRIPP...PARKSTON AROUND 1140 AM CDT...
DIMOCK AROUND 1145 AM CDT...

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.
GO INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER HAS BEEN REPORTED IN DANTE WITH THIS
STORM AT 1121 AM CDT. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THE STORM...TAKE
IMMEDIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT THURSDAY EVENING
FOR NORTHWEST IOWA AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4282 9811 4303 9836 4318 9873 4350 9853
4349 9790 4318 9792 4277 9800
TIME...MOT...LOC 1624Z 217DEG 42KT 4333 9842 4325 9812
4300 9812

$$

SCHUMACHER

[KWT]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
1136 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2008

NEC003-119-139-051645-
/O.CON.KOAX.SV.W.0124.000000T0000Z-080605T1645Z/
MADISON NE-ANTELOPE NE-PIERCE NE-
1136 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1145 AM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN PIERCE...EAST CENTRAL ANTELOPE AND NORTHWESTERN
MADISON COUNTIES...

AT 1134 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS 60 TO 70 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 9
MILES NORTH OF TILDEN...OR 24 MILES WEST OF NORFOLK...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...BRUNSWICK.

THIS STORM PRODUCE THREE QUARTER INCH HAIL AT 1130 IN OAKDALE IN
ANTELOPE COUNTY.

THIS STORM MAY PRODUCE WINDS OF 60 TO 70 MPH. GO TO THE LOWEST LEVEL
OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND GLASS DOORS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT THURSDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHWESTERN IOWA AND EASTERN NEBRASKA.

LAT...LON 4236 9804 4225 9766 4199 9781 4214 9809
TIME...MOT...LOC 1636Z 206DEG 52KT 4219 9783

$$

DERGAN

[denise9855]

It's very cloudy over Topeka right now. Think that will decrease the severe weather risk?

[CrazyC83]

It's very cloudy over Topeka right now. Think that will decrease the severe weather risk?

Possibly, but if the sun breaks out, look out!!!