June 4-7: Severe wx (Omaha tornado update)

[CrazyC83]

Awaiting the 1630Z update - will the high risk be expanded? tornado threat increase to 30%?

[Bunkertor]

[KWT]

Yep Bunkertor this means its going to be a very busy day I feel!

Crazy, not sure about the high risk being expanded but I think the tornado risk will be upped to 30%.

[Weatherfreak14]

I think we may see the High Risk Sink a more south into OK, I think thats where we could see a few big supercells later also. Yes i am looking for a 30% for tornado.

[Weatherfreak14]

It's very cloudy over Topeka right now. Think that will decrease the severe weather risk?

Possibly, but if the sun breaks out, look out!!!

By the visible It looks that clouds will break in about 3 hours if it remains the same.

[CrazyC83]

New watch coming out in OK/KS, should be PDS.

[Melissa]

The clouds broke here for a brief time.

Storm alert just went off. Tornado watch.

[wx247]

From my experience when the outlooks are delayed by this long, they are trying to analyze new data and typically make a shift or an adjustment. We shall see what it brings...

[Weatherfreak14]

Looks like the CAP is about to break near the OK and KS line near Greensburg area. Could see some supercells forming in the nest 2 hours.

[CrazyC83]

From my experience when the outlooks are delayed by this long, they are trying to analyze new data and typically make a shift or an adjustment. We shall see what it brings...

Probably some redrawing, maybe the moderate risk expanded as well, and the high risk extended into Oklahoma.

[CrazyC83]

SEL2

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 462
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL KANSAS
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1150 AM UNTIL
800 PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTH OF CONCORDIA
KANSAS TO 70 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ENID OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 459...WW 460...WW 461...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP ALONG SURFACE COLD
FRONT/DRYLINE OVER CENTRAL KS AND NORTHWEST OK DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THESE STORMS WILL INTERACT WITH EXTREME INSTABILITY AND VERY
FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FOR
SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. IF STORMS CAN MAINTAIN MORE DISCRETE
STRUCTURES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...STRONG AND LONG-TRACK TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL ARE EXPECTED.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040.


...HART

[HarlequinBoy]

Did you all see the probabilities on that PDS Watch? Wow. Greater than 95% for tornadoes and 60% for F2-F5s.

Has anyone ever seen the percentage this high?

I don't think so.

[Weatherfreak14]

SPC 20 minutes late and counting. Wow this has got me on edge.

[CrazyC83]

Did you all see the probabilities on that PDS Watch? Wow. Greater than 95% for tornadoes and 60% for F2-F5s.

Has anyone ever seen the percentage this high?

I don't think so.

I have ONCE seen it at >95/>95. That was on May 5, 2007 (and it very much verified).

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ ... _prob.html

[HarlequinBoy]

From my experience when the outlooks are delayed by this long, they are trying to analyze new data and typically make a shift or an adjustment. We shall see what it brings...

Hopefully all this stays NW of you. Your area is an insane tornado magnet, unfortunately.

[Bunkertor]

I wouldn´t be surprised if we saw a tor-warn in NE soon.

[Weatherfreak14]

WFUS55 KPUB 051650
TORPUB
COC009-051745-
/O.NEW.KPUB.TO.W.0004.080605T1650Z-080605T1745Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1050 AM MDT THU JUN 5 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PUEBLO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL BACA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO...

* UNTIL 1145 AM MDT...

* AT 1049 AM MDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD.
NEAR CAMPO...OR ABOUT 23 MILES SOUTH OF SPRINGFIELD...AND WAS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 14 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CAMPO.
STONINGTON.

DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY LARGE HAIL ARE LIKELY IN THE WARNED AREA.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE IN A HOUSE IS IN A BASEMENT...UNDER STURDY
FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS AVAILABLE...GO TO THE LOWEST FLOOR...IN
AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM...SUCH AS A CLOSET OR
BATHROOM. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER AND PROTECT YOUR BODY FROM
FLYING DEBRIS. ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...OR IN A MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...GO TO A
NEARBY STURDY STRUCTURE AND GET IN A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR POSSIBLE AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF THERE IS NO STURDY
STRUCTURE AVAILABLE...AS A LAST RESORT...GO TO A CULVERT...DITCH...OR
OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 AM MDT
THURSDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

LAT...LON 3736 10279 3733 10214 3700 10234 3701 10275
TIME...MOT...LOC 1650Z 222DEG 12KT 3708 10258

$$

[denise9855]

I would love to be at the SPC today...not a dull moment today, that's for sure!!

[wx247]

From my experience when the outlooks are delayed by this long, they are trying to analyze new data and typically make a shift or an adjustment. We shall see what it brings...

Hopefully all this stays NW of you. Your area is an insane tornado magnet, unfortunately.

I hope so, too. The past few years you are exactly right!

[HarlequinBoy]

Has anyone ever seen the percentage this high?

I don't think so.

I have ONCE seen it at >95/>95. That was on May 5, 2007 (and it very much verified).

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ ... _prob.html

Oh okay. I missed that outbreak actually.