June 4-7: Severe wx (Omaha tornado update)

[KWT]

Yep we have to watch if those cells decide to become more discrete over the next few hours.
Also worth noting that the tornadic parameter is now upto 10 in KS, which is pretty impressive!

[Bunkertor]

Yes - that´s what i wanted to post next. With numbers printed out by the current OKC (OUN ) sounding, i just calculated an EHI of 11

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1230
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0138 PM CDT THU JUN 05 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX...SWRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 051838Z - 051945Z

CONVECTIVE INITIATION APPEARS PROBABLE BY 20-21Z AS HEATING/MIXING
BREAK CAPPING INVERSION ALONG DRYLINE. STRONG SWLYS ON SRN PERIPHERY
OF INTENSE MID-LEVEL JET EJECTING FROM SRN ROCKIES TO THE CNTRL
PLAINS...WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT INITIALLY WITH ATTENDANT
THREATS FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLATED TORNADOES. A TORNADO
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED PRIOR TO 20Z.

[denise9855]

What exactly is the tornadic parameter??

[KWT]

Tornado warnings sharply increasing now as you'd expect, risk only increases from now:

TORNADO WARNING
KSC075-051915-
/O.NEW.KDDC.TO.W.0077.080605T1852Z-080605T1915Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1252 PM MDT THU JUN 5 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN HAMILTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

* UNTIL 115 PM MDT

* AT 1250 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO OVER EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN PROWERS COUNTY...OR 10 MILES NORTH OF COOLIDGE...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RURAL RESIDENCES OF NORTHWESTERN HAMILTON COUNTY.

WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS
THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY
ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU
ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE
LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO
NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM MDT THURSDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM MDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3815 10205 3825 10205 3827 10203 3827 10173
3826 10173 3805 10205 3807 10207 3814 10207
TIME...MOT...LOC 1852Z 229DEG 34KT 3820 10203

$$

01

[Bunkertor]

What exactly is the tornadic parameter??

It´s a product of CAPE and Helicity. Values over 4 suggest srtong tornados, which is no surprise in this case.

btw: OUN cap is done

[KWT]

Yep I think the cap is weakening pretty quickly now, tornado warnings still coming in:

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
159 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2008

NEC063-085-111-051915-
/O.CON.KLBF.TO.W.0044.000000T0000Z-080605T1915Z/
LINCOLN NE-HAYES NE-FRONTIER NE-
159 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 PM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN FRONTIER...HAYES AND SOUTH CENTRAL LINCOLN COUNTIES...

AT 155 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR HAYES CENTER...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 44 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
HAYES CENTER STATE WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT AREA BY 205 PM CDT...

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
BASEBALL SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT THURSDAY EVENING
FOR WESTERN NEBRASKA.

LAT...LON 4088 10098 4055 10061 4042 10121 4053 10131
TIME...MOT...LOC 1859Z 237DEG 38KT 4058 10104

$$

GARNER

[CrazyC83]

I'm thinking this is going to be a tornado event for a long time to come...

[KWT]

Quite possibly Crazy though much depends on how well all the supercells sperate from each other as to how long it lasts but yep looking like a pretty prolonged severe weather threat.

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1231
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0201 PM CDT THU JUN 05 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD...SRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 463...

VALID 051901Z - 052000Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 463
CONTINUES.

AS OF 19Z...SYNOPTIC-SCALE W/E-ORIENTED WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM
CNTRL NEB TO ALONG THE US-20 CORRIDOR IN CNTRL IA TO ACROSS SERN WI.
ELEVATED CONVECTIVE PLUME CONTINUES TO SHIFT RAPIDLY N/NEWD WITHIN
LOW-LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION REGIME ACROSS SERN SD INTO SWRN MN.
ON THE EXIT REGION OF INTENSE MID-LEVEL SWLY JET ACROSS THE GREAT
PLAINS...EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL REMAIN QUITE FAVORABLE FOR UPDRAFT
ROTATION AND LARGE HAIL PRODUCTION...WITH THIS THREAT SHIFTING EWD
ACROSS SRN MN. A NEW SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS SRN MN
DOWNSTREAM OF WW 463.

..GRAMS.. 06/05/2008


ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...ABR...UNR...

43059779 43059898 43179966 43539988 44159953 44469853
44909561 45059426 45079266 44759132 44069108 43539154
43479265 43369488 43289603

[KWT]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
205 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2008

NEC009-041-113-171-051930-
/O.CON.KLBF.SV.W.0132.000000T0000Z-080605T1930Z/
LOGAN NE-CUSTER NE-BLAINE NE-THOMAS NE-
205 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN THOMAS...SOUTHWESTERN BLAINE...NORTHWESTERN CUSTER
AND NORTHEASTERN LOGAN COUNTIES...

AT 200 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED 12 MILES SOUTH OF DUNNING...OR 17 MILES NORTH OF ARNOLD...
MOVING NORTH AT 31 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
DUNNING BY 225 PM CDT...
6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HIGHWAY 91 MILE MARKER 10 AND 9 MILES EAST OF
HIGHWAY 2 MILE MARKER 230 BY 230 PM CDT...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED... ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT THURSDAY EVENING
FOR WESTERN NEBRASKA.

LAT...LON 4189 10049 4192 9992 4147 10006 4145 10025
TIME...MOT...LOC 1905Z 186DEG 27KT 4169 10008

$$

KAR

[wx247]

Cells are beginning to become more discrete in Kansas at this time. Looks like our tornado threat is increasing there. We already have SE Pawnee and Stafford county under a TORNADO WARNING. More tornado warnings are likely from this area over the next hour or so.

[KWT]

Yep indeed I think thats the case as well but we shall have to wait and see what happens.
More tornado warnings still coming out, activity certainly does appear to be picking up out there!


TORNADO WARNING
NEC063-085-111-051945-
/O.NEW.KLBF.TO.W.0045.080605T1914Z-080605T1945Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
214 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTH PLATTE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN FRONTIER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...
NORTHEASTERN HAYES COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...
SOUTH CENTRAL LINCOLN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...

* UNTIL 245 PM CDT

* AT 206 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD
NEAR HAYES CENTER STATE WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT AREA...OR 5 MILES
NORTH OF HAYES CENTER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
WELLFLEET BY 225 PM CDT...
9 MILES NORTHWEST OF HANSEN MEMORIAL RESERVE STATE WILDLIFE
MANAGEMENT AREA BY 235 PM CDT...

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
BASEBALL SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT THURSDAY EVENING
FOR WESTERN NEBRASKA.

LAT...LON 4107 10091 4065 10045 4053 10108 4065 10120
TIME...MOT...LOC 1914Z 234DEG 43KT 4068 10092

$$

GARNER

[CrazyC83]

The cells are like 250 miles ahead of the potential squall line too...

[KWT]

Yep so we could end up having two risks running at the same time, the tornadic cells ahead and the high winds from any squall line/drecho that may form later in the eveing?

[CrazyC83]

SEL5

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 465
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
220 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 220 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTHEAST OF CLINTON
OKLAHOMA TO 135 MILES SOUTH OF CHILDRESS TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 461...WW 462...WW
463...WW 464...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG SURFACE
DRYLINE FROM SOUTHWEST OK INTO WESTERN NORTH TX DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE
EXPECTED. HIGH LCLS WILL LIMIT OVERALL TORNADO THREAT...BUT STRONG
DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR MAY RESULT IN A FEW SPIN UPS
WITH STRONGEST CELLS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.


...HART

[CrazyC83]

Yep so we could end up having two risks running at the same time, the tornadic cells ahead and the high winds from any squall line/drecho that may form later in the eveing?

That's correct.

[KWT]

Certainly is very interesting to watch how this all evolves, sounds like a long old day ahead...

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
322 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2008

PAC019-085-121-051945-
/O.CON.KPBZ.SV.W.0017.000000T0000Z-080605T1945Z/
BUTLER PA-VENANGO PA-MERCER PA-
322 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM EDT
FOR MERCER...VENANGO AND BUTLER COUNTIES...

AT 320 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR CLINTONVILLE..MOVING EAST AT 18 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO RIDDLE
CROSSROADS...KOHLMEYER CORNER...HUMPHREYS CORNER...CYRUS AND SAINT
GEORGE

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE. 1-877-633-6772. WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 4128 7976 4108 7988 4118 8022 4136 8019
TIME...MOT...LOC 1922Z 278DEG 16KT 4122 7985

$$

[Bunkertor]

Live on http://data.ksn.com/video/radarstream.html

[KWT]

Thanks for the link Bunkertor will have a look at that.

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
131 PM MDT THU JUN 5 2008

KSC023-153-193-052000-
/O.CON.KGLD.SV.W.0170.000000T0000Z-080605T2000Z/
RAWLINS KS-CHEYENNE KS-THOMAS KS-
231 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CDT
FOR NORTHERN THOMAS...EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CHEYENNE AND SOUTHWESTERN
RAWLINS COUNTIES...

AT 229 PM CDT...A STORM SPOTTER REPORTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
PRODUCING TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED OVER
EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL THOMAS COUNTY...OR 12 MILES NORTH OF
LEVANT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
RURAL SOUTHERN RAWLINS COUNTY AROUND 250 PM CDT...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR NORTHWESTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

LAT...LON 3978 10110 3948 10082 3941 10130 3964 10143
TIME...MOT...LOC 1931Z 242DEG 39KT 3956 10116

$$

LOCKHART

[wx247]

Our NWS is going to be holding a conference call with Emergency Management officials and will be broadcasting it on our wx radio @ 3.