June 4-7: Severe wx (Omaha tornado update)

[RL3AO]

This is interesting.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1027 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2008

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED
A HIGH WIND WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY.

...HIGH WINDS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

.VERY STRONG SOUTH WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO
60 MPH WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA
UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF A VERY STRONG
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST...AND RAPIDLY MOVING SHOWERS
OUT OF IOWA...ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE STRONG WINDS. THESE WINDS
COULD CAUSE TREES TO GO DOWN...AS WELL AS CAUSING DAMAGE TO SMALL
STRUCTURES. THIS WARNING WILL AFFECT THE CITIES OF MANKATO...NEW
ULM...FAIRMONT...ALBERT LEA...OWATONNA...AND ZUMBROTA

$$
JPR

[Ptarmigan]

Quite an impressive line of thunderstorms I see.

[tidesong]

Quite an impressive line of thunderstorms I see.

Very impressive. And quite scary.

Our local meteorologist says we'll get the top end of this line long after midnight tonight, but that new stuff is going to run through tomorrow. Oh boy.

At least we're only in a MDT right now.

[Ptarmigan]

Very impressive. And quite scary.

Our local meteorologist says we'll get the top end of this line long after midnight tonight, but that new stuff is going to run through tomorrow. Oh boy.

At least we're only in a MDT right now.

Now, I wonder if the southernmost part of the line of thunderstorm could be coming to SE Texas?

[PurdueWx80]

i honestly don't see much happening here. IF anything holds together, it'll roll through near or a bit before dawn, but i'm banking on most of it dying out.

i think it's highly unlikely that we'll see severe weather tomorrow. it'll be to our east and south, where the outflow boundary from tonight's storms sets up. just looks like a very windy and warm day for madison.

this weekend may be another story, however.

[btangy]

0z Soundings are unbelievable - even for DET, PIT. I wonder why no tornado occured in Oklahoma.

I believe it has to do with the cap being so strong ahead of the cold front. The only focus for convection was right along the boundary where there was shear but the flow was much more unidirectional with height. The mesoscale lift associated with the front along with the synoptic scale lift with the upper level disturbance and the right rear quadrant of the jet streak were why storms were exploding mostly behind the front earlier today (which is a bit strange if you think about where the active weather should be classically speaking...i.e. along and out ahead of the front/dry line).

The cap can be attributed to a pocket of very hot air that originated over the Mexican highlands and S Texas where they had highs nearing 110 not but a few days ago. This warm air had a signature aloft which is this 'V'-like signature you see in the temperature/dewpoint soundings at about 700-850mb. This results in a huge amount of convective inhibition and it doesn't matter how much CAPE you have above this inhibiting layer... if parcels can't break this convective inhibition, then nothing will happen. I believe the surface temperature would have had to have been over 100F in Oklahoma out ahead of the front in order to overcome the cap with surface heating alone. It just wasn't going to happen today in the S Plains.

So you can thank the hot air for sparing everyone a super outbreak (of tornadoes) today. Ongoing wind threat will continue most of tonight and tomorrow.

[btangy]

Just look at the scale of this storm system! I would think it to be early April if I saw something like this without a date on it. Classic baroclinic structure with a well developed low pressure, strong cold front, and warm front. Think anybody can draw the fronts on the map tonight...

[wx247]

The city of Tulsa, OK is now under a TORNADO WARNING:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1134 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN CREEK COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
NORTHERN OKMULGEE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
TULSA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
WESTERN WAGONER COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

* UNTIL 1215 AM CDT

* AT 1130 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 3 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF SLICK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...BEGGS...
PRESTON...MOUNDS...KIEFER...GLENPOOL...JENKS...BIXBY...TULSA AND
BROKEN ARROW.

IF YOU ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM...TAKE COVER NOW! IF NO
UNDERGROUND SHELTER IS AVAILABLE MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR. MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES SHOULD BE ABANDONED FOR MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. AVOID WINDOWS!

[Bunkertor]

0z Soundings are unbelievable - even for DET, PIT. I wonder why no tornado occured in Oklahoma.

I believe it has to do with the cap being so strong ahead of the cold front. The only focus for convection was right along the boundary where there was shear but the flow was much more unidirectional with height. The mesoscale lift associated with the front along with the synoptic scale lift with the upper level disturbance and the right rear quadrant of the jet streak were why storms were exploding mostly behind the front earlier today (which is a bit strange if you think about where the active weather should be classically speaking...i.e. along and out ahead of the front/dry line).

The cap can be attributed to a pocket of very hot air that originated over the Mexican highlands and S Texas where they had highs nearing 110 not but a few days ago. This warm air had a signature aloft which is this 'V'-like signature you see in the temperature/dewpoint soundings at about 700-850mb. This results in a huge amount of convective inhibition and it doesn't matter how much CAPE you have above this inhibiting layer... if parcels can't break this convective inhibition, then nothing will happen. I believe the surface temperature would have had to have been over 100F in Oklahoma out ahead of the front in order to overcome the cap with surface heating alone. It just wasn't going to happen today in the S Plains.

So you can thank the hot air for sparing everyone a super outbreak (of tornadoes) today. Ongoing wind threat will continue most of tonight and tomorrow.

You´re right. If that moist air masses would have become more buoyant and were forced into cooler ML - this outbreak could have turned deadly.
The cap was in place from the very beginning of the day and remained stable - sometimes with a thickness of 2 km.

[Bunkertor]

The city of Tulsa, OK is now under a TORNADO WARNING:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1134 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN CREEK COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
NORTHERN OKMULGEE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
TULSA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
WESTERN WAGONER COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

Yes - 6z Sounding for Tulsa shows a HEL of 700...

[Bunkertor]

krmg reports several funnels ( other phone-caller couldn´t confirm ) sighted in the Tulsa area.

[HarlequinBoy]

Downgraded to SLIGHT from MOD for today.

[Bunkertor]

82 tornados for past two days so far.

[CrazyC83]

Downgraded to SLIGHT from MOD for today.

Which makes sense since the MCS/derecho has really zapped the energy.

35 tornado reports and 227 wind reports yesterday.

[CrazyC83]

CNN report: significant damage from a rogue tornado in northern Minnesota.

[CrazyC83]

1425 MENAHGA WADENA MN 4675 9510 REPORT FROM PUBLIC RELAYED TO LAW ENFORCEMENT. (FGF)
1435 PARK RAPIDS HUBBARD MN 4692 9506 TORNADO PRODUCED WIDESPREAD ROOF DAMAGE EAST SIDE OF PARK RAPIDS.TREES DOWN CARS IN DITCH 1 MILE NORTH OF HWY 34 ON CTY ROAD 4 NEAR EMMAVILLE/LAKE GEORGE.TREES DOWN SOU (FGF)
1442 PARK RAPIDS HUBBARD MN 4692 9506 ONE HALF MILE WIDE PATH OF DESTRUCTION REPORTED FROM PARK RAPIDS NORTHWARD. (FGF)
1448 EMMAVILLE HUBBARD MN 4707 9498 SEVERAL HOUSES DESTROYED BY TORNADO. (FGF)

[wx247]

Good morning. Had the squall line come through here about 2:30 this morning bringing high winds of about 55-60 mph. It snapped some limbs off a couple of our trees, but it could have been much worse.

[wbug1]

Whoa.. that tornado came out of nowhere. Uh.. I can't see significant reflectivity, not even 40 dbz.. dissipated completely?

The tornado warning is remains in effect.

[CrazyC83]

Whoa.. that tornado came out of nowhere. Uh.. I can't see significant reflectivity, not even 40 dbz.. dissipated completely?

Probably a classic low-topped supercell.

[CrazyC83]

SEL2

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 472
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1030 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHERN MINNESOTA

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 1030 AM UNTIL
400 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
THIEF RIVER FALLS MINNESOTA TO 25 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF HIBBING
MINNESOTA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF SURFACE WARM FRONT EXTENDING
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MN. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO
FAVORABLY SHEARED BOUNDARY LAYER AND POSE A RISK OF TORNADOES.
GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGEST
CELLS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 21035.


...HART