Central Atlantic / Eastern Atlantic

[cycloneye]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 061728
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE
SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND ON SATURDAY.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

[Ivanhater]

[gatorcane]

wow I'm a bit surprised the NHC decided to even mention this system.....

[Ivanhater]

Also might want to edit the name of the thread to distinguish the wave approaching the Islands so no one is confused..far from Africa now..lol

[cycloneye]

Also might want to edit the name of the thread to distinguish the wave approaching the Islands so no one is confused..far from Africa now..lol

The best title now.

[Ivanhater]

Also might want to edit the name of the thread to distinguish the wave approaching the Islands so no one is confused..far from Africa now..lol

The best title now.

Great job as always Luis..If this is still an area of interest later I would suggest to give it its own thread..it deserves that much! lol..but I wouldnt be surprised to see the NHC to tag it as 91L..they tend to do that early on to run some models and get some practice. They did that a lot last year...

[gatorcane]

Also might want to edit the name of the thread to distinguish the wave approaching the Islands so no one is confused..far from Africa now..lol

The best title now.

Great job as always Luis..If this is still an area of interest later I would suggest to give it its own thread..it deserves that much! lol..but I wouldnt be surprised to see the NHC to tag it as 91L..they tend to do that early on to run some models and get some practice. They did that a lot last year...

I think this area may warrant a new thread also, but it depends on how well it holds up over the next 24 hours or so and whether it becomes an invest or not.

[cycloneye]

Surely,if any wave looks like a candidate to be a invest,it deserves a individual thread of its own.

[boca]

It looks like 2/3 of the wave will slam into NE South America.Maybe the 1/3 left will become an invest.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg

[GCANE]

This really doesn't have a chance to develop. Either it will run into South America or into a wall of shear in the Carb.

[Dean4Storms]

Agree there GCane, doesn't have a prayer.

[Ivanhater]

Agree there GCane, doesn't have a prayer.

Good to see ya back Dean...I agree this wont do anything in the next couple of days..im looking at when the wave axis gets in the West Caribbean where it is still unsettled..might just spark something and try to get something spun up...

[Category 5]

It won't do anything now for sure, but if it makes it into the Western Caribbean you just never know. This is that time of year.

[KWT]

Yeah as has been said there has been fairly high shear in the eastern Caribbean for a little while now and if that pattern remains its going to be smashed by the shear. However the wave axis will remain and if it can reach the western Caribbean and slow down then that region is the prime spot for June development. Right now I don't feel its worth an invest but it does deserved to be watched.

[gatorcane]

Yeah as has been said there has been fairly high shear in the eastern Caribbean for a little while now and if that pattern remains its going to be smashed by the shear. However the wave axis will remain and if it can reach the western Caribbean and slow down then that region is the prime spot for June development. Right now I don't feel its worth an invest but it does deserved to be watched.

I really think the NHC is practicing their new maps by saying this region has a chance albeit low of development (with the yellow shading on their maps).

I give this area about a less than 1% chance of development from this wave. If it developed at all the Western Caribbean would be the place but even then I don't see development

[Gustywind]

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
AXNT20 KNHC 062335
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI JUN 06 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W S OF 19N MOVING W 15-20 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES LOW/MID LEVEL ROTATION ALONG THE WAVE AXIS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 7N-14N BETWEEN 54W-60W INCLUDING BARBADOS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT TRINIDAD/TOBAGO AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NIGHT.

[GCANE]

Yeah as has been said there has been fairly high shear in the eastern Caribbean for a little while now and if that pattern remains its going to be smashed by the shear. However the wave axis will remain and if it can reach the western Caribbean and slow down then that region is the prime spot for June development. Right now I don't feel its worth an invest but it does deserved to be watched.

Vorticity is just north of the coast. It was impressive on MIMIC-TPW as it crossed the Atlantic. I agree that it will definitely be worth watching as it gets into the west Caribbean.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT JUN 7 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND ADJACENT
WATERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[GCANE]

Actually, I was just checking shear forecast on CMC and GFS. It is going to be high for the next 4 to 5 days over the entire Caribbean. IMHO, not much of a chance for this wave; but, it may be an indication of an early CV season.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 071048
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT JUN 07 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 31W-34W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 2N-3N BETWEEN 28W-32W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W/62W S OF 20N MOVING W 15-20 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES LOW/MID LEVEL ROTATION ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 61W-64W.