Central Atlantic / Eastern Atlantic

[Gustywind]

Getting very moist near Africa, we should see sooner anothers huge waves exiting with all that moisture.... At this rate we may experience some surprises in stores, very interresting for only the beginning of June....
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 071755
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT JUN 07 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY ALONG 30W S OF 13N IS
ADJUSTED AHEAD NEAR 37W BASED ON SFC OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE
PICTURES AND LOW-LEVEL DERIVED WINDS. A WEAK CYCLONIC TURNING
IS SEEN ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 7N. IN ADDITION...THE TPW
ANIMATION FROM CIMSS SHOWS A PEAK OF MOISTURE JUST BEHIND THE
WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM E OF
WAVE AND WITHIN 50 NM AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 7N TO 9N.

A TROPICAL HAS ENTERED THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. IT AXIS EXTENDS
ALONG 61W/62W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE MIMIC-TPW PRODUCT
INDICATES A GOOD SURGE OF MOISTENED AIR EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE
AXIS BUT MAINLY SOUTH OF 16N. THE WAVE IS GENERATING SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. TRINIDAD REPORTED 0.57
INCHES OF RAIN THIS MORNING. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 080524
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN JUN 08 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W S OF 13W MOVING W 15-20 KT. SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES AN INVERTED-V CURVATURE...WHILE THE MIMIC-TPW
ANIMATION SHOWS THE WAVE IS THE LEADING EDGE OF A LARGE MOISTURE
SURGE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-10N
BETWEEN 30W-40W.

[canegrl04]

We just might get big Bertha before the end of June

[gatorcane]

while it may be interesting to watch convection in the far east atlantic, the fact of the matter is that tropicaly activity is not likely there until much later in the season, typically mid August through mid September exhibits the best overall conditions for tropical development for Cape Verde systems coming off Africa.

the area that needs to be watch in June is the Western Caribbean.

[KWT]

Yep of course you right but shear is lower then normal across the Atlantic which is normally a big problem for any waves in the central Atlantic. Given SSt profiles and lower then normal shear I wouldn't be all that surprised to see the cape verde get going a little sooner then it sometimes does, though of course gatorcane is right this area tends to really get going in August.

[cycloneye]

2 PM Discussion from TPC:

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W S OF 13W MOVING W 10-15 KT.
INVERTED-V LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED IN SAT IMAGERY...
WHILE THE MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION REVEALS THE WAVE IS THE LEADING
EDGE OF A LARGE MOISTURE SURGE. VIS SAT IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
CONVECTION IS ON THE INCREASE PARTICULARLY ON THE EAST SIDE.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE
WAVE AXIS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 38W-41W. SCATTRED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALSO AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS AND WITHIN THE ITCZ
FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 43W-46W. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST BY THE
COMPUTER MODELS TO REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES EARLY THU.

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

[cycloneye]

I only posted this pic to point out that the strong convection complex that will emerge West Africa,will do so at the most more northern latitud so far this year.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 090002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN JUN 08 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W S OF 13W MOVING W 10-15 KT.
INVERTED-V LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE REMAINS OBSERVED IN SAT IMAGERY
WHILE THE MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION REVEALS THE WAVE IS FAIRLY
AMPLIFIED AND REPRESENTS THE LEADING EDGE OF A LARGE MOISTURE
SURGE. SAT IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CONVECTION IS ON THE INCREASE
MAINLY EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION NOTED FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 40W-43W. THIS WAVE IS
FORECAST BY THE COMPUTER MODELS TO REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES
EARLY THU.IN THE DEEP TROPICS
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
AND THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
EXTENDING WWD TO ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL HIGH LOCATED NEAR 10N41W.
THIS SYSTEM IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 41W.

Our next guest we will see what happens with the upper level high in vicinity of the wave whereas let's see...if first this twave survives and then what should we expect in terms of convective activity with this wave , but it's very fascinating to monitor theses waves already well formed for early june

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 091047
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUN 09 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W S OF 13W MOVING W 10-15 KT.
INVERTED-V LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE REMAINS OBSERVED IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY WHILE THE MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION REVEALS THE WAVE IS FAIRLY
AMPLIFIED AND REPRESENTS THE LEADING EDGE OF A LARGE MOISTURE
SURGE. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N
BETWEEN 42W-45W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FURTHER S FROM EQ-4N BETWEEN 44W-50W.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/wv-l.jpg
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8shr.GIF
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8split.jpg
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html
Not very conducive conditions for this twave but we could see some moderate convective activity within the next 72 h near the east carib as mentionned the lprevious two and given the last :
000
AWCA82 TJSJ 090911
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
511 AM AST MON JUN 9 2008

EXPECT MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE
REACHES THE AREA LATE THURSDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION.
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...MARINERS CAN EXPECT EASTERLY WINDS OF 15
KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 5 FEET TODAY.

$$

SR

[Steve H.]

While not climatologically favored areas right now, the wave a 45W and the moisture surge to the east is somewhat interesting since it may signal an early beginning to tropical development for the season. The ITCZ is pulling north and shear is relatively light. Another area of note is the convection off Nicaragua this morning. This area is more foavorable in June, and we need to watcch for persistence of convection here. Gonna be an exciting year i fear.

[cycloneye]

[Gustywind]

While not climatologically favored areas right now, the wave a 45W and the moisture surge to the east is somewhat interesting since it may signal an early beginning to tropical development for the season. The ITCZ is pulling north and shear is relatively light. Another area of note is the convection off Nicaragua this morning. This area is more foavorable in June, and we need to watcch for persistence of convection here. Gonna be an exciting year i fear.

Yeah absolutely 000
AXNT20 KNHC 091726
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUN 09 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W S OF 13W MOVING W ABOUT 10 KT. WEAK
INVERTED-V LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE IS APPARENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION SHOWS THE AXIS AS THE LEADING
EDGE OF A BROAD MOISTURE SURGE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 40W-48W. CONVECTION S OF 4N IS EMBEDDED IN
THE ITCZ.

[KWT]

Thats the 2nd decent looking wave to pass 45W over the last week and so its very interesting sign indeed for later in the season, as has been mentioned shear is fairly low even now and the convection the wave has isn't all that bad. Also its a little further north then other waves recently as well.

[GeneratorPower]

That's a pretty good looking wave on visible @ 10N 47W. Nice rotation in the clouds, and some convection firing along with it.

[HURAKAN]

[Gustywind]

Heyhey...Be ready , because at this rate we should see quicker and sooner something cooking in the ocean, whereas kwt i'm very amazed by the details of the NHC ..speaking last week and emphasizes on the low shear doting already the area , it's too interesting for the moment to miss any twd or two, so imagine that during the next two months
Convection seems really on the increase for the twave at 45w, nice looking wave .The itcz is trying to pulling north too with my untrained eyes...and a bulk a convection is appearing sligthly.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-wv.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn-l.jpg
WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
500 PM AST MON JUN 9 2008
RELATIVELY DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY THURSDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT
TROPICAL WAVE BRINGS A GENERAL INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

[Gustywind]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8split.jpg
SAL is really improving and should not inhibit the wave at 45w
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/goes/Sto ... est_ir.jpg

[Gustywind]

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg
It's the signature of beautiful wave well defined with moderate popcorn... let's see what happens during the 24h but glad to wash my eyes on that

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 100905
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
505 AM AST TUE JUN 10 2008

THE NEXT POSSIBLE WEATHER MAKER IS A
TROPICAL WAVE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.
000
AXNT20 KNHC 100601
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT.
INVERTED-V LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE IS CLEARLY VISIBLE ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION SHOWS THE AXIS EMBEDDED WITHIN
A BROAD MOISTURE SURGE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 46W-49W.