Right now there is a strong slight issued for tomorrow...
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT SAT JUN 07 2008
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT
LAKES INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NORTHERN NY INTO VT...
...UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL
PLAINS...
LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST IN
ADVANCE OF PRIMARY UPPER LOW SLOWLY SHIFTING EASTWARD FROM EASTERN
MT INTO ND. IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT AT LEAST A LOOSELY ORGANIZED
STRONG/SEVERE MCS WILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN IA INTO WI/PERHAPS FAR
NORTHERN IL. AIDED BY SUFFICIENT LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT/GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS...AND A MOIST/UNSTABLE DOWNSTREAM
AIRMASS...A SEVERE THREAT WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE EASTWARD AND
DIURNALLY EXPAND/INTENSIFY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WI/NORTHERN IL
INTO LOWER MI DURING THE DAY. ALTHOUGH INHERENT QUESTIONS EXIST
REGARDING THE EARLY DAY ORGANIZATION OF A POTENTIAL MCS...THE
POSSIBILITY OF FORWARD PROPAGATION AND AN AFTERNOON UPSWING IN
INTENSITY WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN A DISTINCT THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS...IN ADDITION TO SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO.
OTHER STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
AMIDST A MOIST AND MODERATE-STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG/AHEAD OF
THE EAST-SOUTHEAST ADVANCING COLD FRONT FROM EASTERN/SOUTHERN IA AND
NORTHWEST IL INTO WESTERN MO AND EASTERN/SOUTHERN KS...AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHERN/WESTERN OK AND PERHAPS THE TX PANHANDLE BY EARLY
EVENING. OTHER TSTMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO AMIDST
A HIGHLY SHEARED POST-FRONTAL EASTERLY UPSLOPE REGIME. LARGE HAIL
WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY RISK IN THESE AREAS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE AS WELL.
...NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NY INTO NEW ENGLAND...
HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NY INTO
VT. SHORT TERM MODEL VARIABILITY STILL EXISTS REGARDING THE
TIMING/LOCATION OF LOW AMPLITUDE/SUBTLE MID LEVEL IMPULSES
ALONG/NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER ON SUNDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE HAS
INCREASED WITH THE EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE
TSTMS WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS /ESPECIALLY REFLECTED BY
THE LATEST GFS AND NAM-KF CONTROL GUIDANCE/. AMPLE HEATING/STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASINGLY STRONG/LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL
LOW-MID LEVEL TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SMALL
BOWING SEGMENTS WITH WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL INTO THE EVENING.
...EASTERN DAKOTAS/NORTHWEST MN...
CYCLONE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL DRY SLOT IS EXPECTED TO NOSE
NORTHEASTWARD FROM NEB INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY. IN CLOSE
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LOW...A POCKET OF RELATIVELY COOL MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-15 TO -23 DEG C/ WILL OVERSPREAD THE DAKOTAS
INTO NORTHWEST MN. IN SPITE OF LIMITED BOUNDARY MOISTURE /40S F TO
LOWER 50S F DEWPOINTS/...POCKETS OF HEATING ON THE FRINGE OF THE DRY
SLOT WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL
RATES...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF 500-750 J/KG MUCAPE. BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...LOW-TOPPED STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL AND
SOME GUSTY WINDS. A ROGUE TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN VICINITY OF
THE DAKOTAS SURFACE LOW/ASSOCIATED FRONTAL OCCLUSION PROVIDED
SUFFICIENT INSOLATION /LOW LEVEL CAPE/...IN AN OTHERWISE FAVORABLE
AMBIENT VORTICITY ENVIRONMENT.
...WESTERN/CENTRAL FL...
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TO NEAR
2 INCHES ON SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FL. SHORT TERM MODELS
INDICATE THAT A COOLER MID LEVEL /500 MB/ POCKET OF -8 TO -10 DEG C
WILL ROTATE WESTWARD ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYERED
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS. DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WILL
FAVOR THE EAST COAST SEABREEZE TO REACH CNTRL FL BY EARLY
AFTN...EVENTUALLY COLLIDING WITH THE WEST COAST SEABREEZE BY
MID/LATE AFTN. STEEPENING OF THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL FAVOR
STRONG/SOME SEVERE PULSE-TYPE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND HAIL.
There are a couple of 30% areas which include the southern plains, southern kansas and northern oklahoma as well as a portion of the Texas panhandle. This same portion extends into far western missouri. There's another section that runs from eastern iowa to northern IL and southern wisconsin. Similar areas affected today by severe weather.
