Pattern change next week along the gulf coast

[Eyewall]

The gulf coast has been under a big ridge of high pressure not allowing for much rain here in New Orleans. But next week there will be a weakening of the high moving off to the east and allowing moisture to return from the gulf. Which is a dangerous pattern for the gulf coast during hurricane season. And this is the pattern I think we will see come August and September which will put the east coast under protection and the gulf coast under the gun. Although my forecast is based on what is happening now and what happen last season with the ridge of high pressure not allowing any storm to even think about going up the east coast. Thoughts

[Stormcenter]

The gulf coast has been under a big ridge of high pressure not allowing for much rain here in New Orleans. But next week there will be a weakening of the high moving off to the east and allowing moisture to return from the gulf. Which is a dangerous pattern for the gulf coast during hurricane season. And this is the pattern I think we will see come August and September which will put the east coast under protection and the gulf coast under the gun. Although my forecast is based on what is happening now and what happen last season with the ridge of high pressure not allowing any storm to even think about going up the east coast. Thoughts

The high may be around more then not even in August and September.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I think the GOM might be protected by a monster ridge most of this Summer and early Fall. I'm only basing this on my gut feeling, and past patterns, nothing more nothing less.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I sure hope not. We are getting hotter and dryer by the day in SE LA. Been in the low and mid 90's for the last month. Already started talking about drought again as this keeps up. It makes for a miserable summer. Can only imagine what august will be like if the high dominates!

[Stormcenter]

I sure hope not. We are getting hotter and dryer by the day in SE LA. Been in the low and mid 90's for the last month. Already started talking about drought again as this keeps up. It makes for a miserable summer. Can only imagine what august will be like if the high dominates!

If I were you I rather spend extra money on my water bill then reparing my home.

[MGC]

I would not be surprised to see the upper ridge build right back in next weekend. I'm worried that it is going to be a long hot summer here. The scarry thing is that an upper ridge will allow ample sunshine to reach the waters of the GOM and should a TC venture into the GOM.....watch out!.....MGC

[MiamiensisWx]

I would not be surprised to see the upper ridge build right back in next weekend. I'm worried that it is going to be a long hot summer here. The scarry thing is that an upper ridge will allow ample sunshine to reach the waters of the GOM and should a TC venture into the GOM.....watch out!.....MGC

The "importance" of high SSTA is often overplayed. Gulf SSTA and the depth of the 26 degree isotherm is always sufficient to support an extremely intense hurricane every year, but even the formation of a TS or hurricane does not happen on an exceptionally frequent basis. Other factors overrule the importance of SSTA; if low level convergence/confluence is minimal and upper level divergence (shear) is strong, no tropical cyclogenesis will occur, regardless of SSTA. A more interesting aspect of upper level anticyclonic flow is the fact that it is conducive for a TC's outflow, since tropical cyclones are mesoscale convective systems. Since that is the case, the presence of an upper ridge is more concerning (from your view) if it provides a favorable upper air pattern for tropical cyclones. Humberto rapidly intensified not because of high SSTA; it deepened because it was located in the right front quadrant of an upper level jet streak with excellent divergence and low level convergence. Overall, too many people worry solely because of "high SSTA" that occur every year in the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic basin. High SSTA are far more crucial in the eastern Atlantic, where it can favor greater MDR development, especially if the Azores ridge is weaker as currently seen in the eastern subtropical Atlantic.

[southerngale]

I sure hope not. We are getting hotter and dryer by the day in SE LA. Been in the low and mid 90's for the last month. Already started talking about drought again as this keeps up. It makes for a miserable summer. Can only imagine what august will be like if the high dominates!

If I were you I rather spend extra money on my water bill then reparing my home.

He didn't say he wanted a hurricane!

[deltadog03]

There will be a very nice pattern change along the gulf coast. I for one will very much welcome the extra moisture to give us some rain chances. Go away ridge!

[southerngale]

There will be a very nice pattern change along the gulf coast. I for one will very much welcome the extra moisture to give us some rain chances. Go away ridge!

Hey deltadog... didn't you used to live in Texas... Flower Mound if I recall correctly?

[deltadog03]

yes and yes

[HouTXmetro]

I'm sure the High will build back in. Quit frankly we haven't benefitted from the pattern change just yet. No rain here in Houston.

[MGC]

High SST and upper ridge + hurricane= Katrina. I too want the UL ridge to go away....MGC

[Weatherfreak000]

Typically you must remember although Season's usually have a "Vibe" to them I agree. What only matters is where the storm is/how strong it is, and what the atmospheric conditions are at that exact given point.

That's pretty much all I ever worry about, don't expect constant seasons of constant "Vibes". We're a year or so overdo a season to change that.

[HouTXmetro]

I remember the strong High over Alabama protected the Gulf Coast from Dean and Felix last year. Those storms were some monsters.

[NDG]

I think some are confusing UL ridge with a ML ridge, ML ridge is what you want to sit on top of you to block or steer away from you any strong tropical cyclones.
What is scary for the gulfcoast and or SE US on this pattern so far is that the ML ridge does not stay in place for too long as it did last summer, a troughiness always makes it into the central US to push the ridge eastward.

[jinftl]

Plus we always need to consider where a storm may be in relation to any ridges and or troughs. Troughs could very well steer storms like Dean or Felix into the Gulf or Florida as opposed to how they moved last year....it all comes down where all of the key players are 'at game time'.

I think some are confusing UL ridge with a ML ridge, ML ridge is what you want to sit on top of you to block or steer away from you any strong tropical cyclones.
What is scary for the gulfcoast and or SE US on this pattern so far is that the ML ridge does not stay in place for too long as it did last summer, a troughiness always makes it into the central US to push the ridge eastward.

[MGC]

Scattered convection is starting to develope to my south out over the GOM. Looks like the cap is starting to break over me. Hopefully a few of these showers will move over my parched lawn over the next couple of days.....MGC

[Janie2006]

Convection is firing this morning for certain, especially near Pascagoula. Fairly good POPs into the extended period as the ridge moves off. It may be a pretty active wx day after all. We've convection popping in the Gulf and the outflow boundaries from the storms near Vicksburg.