EPAC: Invest 92E
Moderator: S2k Moderators
-
- Admin
- Posts: 19184
- Age: 61
- Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
- Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)
EPAC: Invest 92E
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml
labeled on the floater, and weather underground, nothing at NRL.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... 00892.html
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON JUN 9 2008
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
1. A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED CLOSE TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO NEAR
ACAPULCO. THERE HAS BEEN AN APPARENT INCREASE IN THE ORGANIZATION
OF THE SYSTEM OVERNIGHT...AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IF
THE LOW REMAINS OVER WATER. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUERTO
ANGEL WESTWARD TO NEAR MANZANILLO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB/BLAKE
labeled on the floater, and weather underground, nothing at NRL.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... 00892.html
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON JUN 9 2008
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
1. A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED CLOSE TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO NEAR
ACAPULCO. THERE HAS BEEN AN APPARENT INCREASE IN THE ORGANIZATION
OF THE SYSTEM OVERNIGHT...AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IF
THE LOW REMAINS OVER WATER. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUERTO
ANGEL WESTWARD TO NEAR MANZANILLO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB/BLAKE
0 likes
- ncupsscweather
- Category 1
- Posts: 321
- Age: 37
- Joined: Tue Jan 02, 2007 8:05 pm
- Location: Hickory,North Carolina
-
- Category 3
- Posts: 812
- Joined: Fri May 18, 2007 9:31 pm
- ncupsscweather
- Category 1
- Posts: 321
- Age: 37
- Joined: Tue Jan 02, 2007 8:05 pm
- Location: Hickory,North Carolina
Re: EPAC: Invest 92E
according to observations the area of low pressure has dropped from 1007mb to 1005mb
0 likes
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139719
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC: Invest 92E
Code: Select all
* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST EP922008 06/09/08 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 37 41 47 50 51 49 47 45 43 38
V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 30 29 28 27 27 28 26 24 22 17
V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 24 25 26 26 27 30 31 31 29 26
SHEAR (KTS) 20 18 23 20 14 10 7 8 5 5 3 11 5
SHEAR DIR 58 47 54 55 45 56 359 29 357 56 6 107 192
SST (C) 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.4 27.8 27.5 27.2 26.9 26.1 24.4 22.5 21.2
POT. INT. (KT) 157 154 152 149 147 141 137 134 131 123 106 87 73
200 MB T (C) -53.4 -52.7 -52.1 -52.8 -53.3 -52.2 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -53.4
TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 8 7 9 6 8 5 5 2 1 0
700-500 MB RH 68 68 64 66 64 59 55 54 44 42 40 39 35
GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 73 75 83 77 68 66 38 47 42 29 24 14 13
200 MB DIV 50 65 73 33 3 9 -6 -4 -35 -33 -17 -5 -6
LAND (KM) 87 47 7 -9 -18 -83 -68 -15 84 225 188 174 319
LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.6 17.1 17.6 18.0 19.0 19.6 20.1 20.5 20.9 21.3 21.7 22.0
LONG(DEG W) 100.0 100.4 100.7 101.2 101.7 103.0 104.1 105.3 106.5 107.8 109.4 111.1 113.2
STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 8 9 9
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 380 (MEAN=582)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=18.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.7)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 19. 22. 24. 23. 21. 18.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6.
700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4.
----------------------------------------------------------
SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 14. 18. 20. 21. 19. 18. 15. 10.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. 2. 3. 3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 12. 16. 22. 25. 26. 24. 22. 20. 18. 13.
** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP922008 INVEST 06/09/08 12 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.1 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.9 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.8 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 93.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922008 INVEST 06/09/08 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED
0 likes
- MGC
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5799
- Joined: Sun Mar 23, 2003 9:05 pm
- Location: Pass Christian MS, or what is left.
Re: EPAC: Invest 92E
If 92E can manage to stay off shore then I think it has a good chance to become a depression by tomorrow......MGC
0 likes
-
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 11430
- Age: 33
- Joined: Sat Dec 24, 2005 9:00 pm
- Location: School: Florida State University (Tallahassee, FL) Home: St. Petersburg, Florida
- Contact:
- srainhoutx
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 6919
- Age: 66
- Joined: Sun Jan 14, 2007 11:34 am
- Location: Haywood County, NC
- Contact:
Re: EPAC: Invest 92E
Monsoon trough is at it again. Looks to be the focal point this early season IMHO.
0 likes
- vbhoutex
- Storm2k Executive
- Posts: 28980
- Age: 72
- Joined: Wed Oct 09, 2002 11:31 pm
- Location: Spring Branch area, Houston, TX
- Contact:
Re: EPAC: Invest 92E
srainhoutx wrote:Monsoon trough is at it again. Looks to be the focal point this early season IMHO.
I was thinking that the other day too. The question is-How muchis it going to influence the formation of TC's? Seems to me that it already is "helping" enhance the chances more/earlier than we normally see???
0 likes
- srainhoutx
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 6919
- Age: 66
- Joined: Sun Jan 14, 2007 11:34 am
- Location: Haywood County, NC
- Contact:
Re: EPAC: Invest 92E
vbhoutex wrote:srainhoutx wrote:Monsoon trough is at it again. Looks to be the focal point this early season IMHO.
I was thinking that the other day too. The question is-How muchis it going to influence the formation of TC's? Seems to me that it already is "helping" enhance the chances more/earlier than we normally see???
Boy have we had a prolonged setup. Since February. I have thought that a monsoon trough might be the key this year. Western CONUS troughs still digging. And the door is slowly opening for some deep tropical moisture.
0 likes
- DESTRUCTION5
- Category 5
- Posts: 4391
- Age: 42
- Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:25 am
- Location: Stuart, FL
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests