SW Caribbean

[Sanibel]

A shear induced convection flare-up east of Nicaragua has a slight sign of a twist. Probably nothing.

[gatorcane]

2:05 TWD Snippet:

CARIBBEAN...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE ATLC CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN MODERATE
TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADES THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN. LOW-LEVEL
WIND SPEED CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS
GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE VISIBLE ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. ALOFT...A WEAK RIDGE
COVERS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 76W TO MOVE
THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS TOMORROW...ENHANCING CONVECTION IN
THE AREA.

[CourierPR]

This area was mentioned by the local met on WPLG Miami at noon. Let's see if it persists.

[gatorcane]

Pressures are generally low in the SW Caribbean but steady. The closest Ob I can find is in Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua which is seeing breezy East winds and rain.

2 PM (18) Jun 09 80 (27) 77 (25) 29.85 (1011) ESE 12 drizzle
1 PM (17) Jun 09 82 (28) 77 (25) 29.85 (1011) E 12 heavy rain
Noon (16) Jun 09 84 (29) 78 (26) 29.85 (1011) E 14 rain in the vicinity
11 AM (15) Jun 09 86 (30) 77 (25) 29.85 (1011) ENE 16
10 AM (14) Jun 09 84 (29) 77 (25) 29.85 (1011) E 14 rain in the vicinity
9 AM (13) Jun 09 82 (28) 77 (25) 29.83 (1010) ENE 12 rain in the vicinity

[ncupsscweather]

http://www.hurricanecity.com/wx/bluefieldsweather.php

theres a station south of there.

[HURAKAN]

Area to keep an eye on.

[boca]

Also of other importance is that weather south of Cuba is being lifted northward due to the ULL over North Florida.This could give us the needed rainfall for the southern 2/3rds of Florida.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

[Sanibel]

Enhanced into a linear open wave. Don't see any center development.

[drezee]

This is the same wave that has been tracked across the Atlantic for over a week now. The 4 day loops show it clearly: Check it out


http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastfullir.html

[gatorcane]

Upper level winds are very unfavorable for development in the Western Caribbean at this time. The ULL over Florida is creating a TUTT-like blocker for anything at the moment.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Upper level winds are very unfavorable for development in the Western Caribbean at this time. The ULL over Florida is creating a TUTT-like blocker for anything at the moment.

True. That ULL was supposed to drift West across the Gulf, and enhance rain chances for dreadfully dry Southeast Texas (parts of the area now 26 days w/o measurable) but today's NWS HGX AFD says it looks like that ULL will get turned Northeast by the Westerlies, so perhaps shear may relax.


Probably not before it reaches the Pacific, off course. The good news, cold outflow from overnight storms is pushing towards the HOU area, with scattered showers and storms.

But June and July combined, IIRC, average only slightly more than one TC combined in the Atlantic, so slow tropics now doesn't mean season cancel quite yet.

[HouTXmetro]

Atleast there is something to look at down there.

[Sanibel]

Didn't mean to jump anyone's thread. I haven't been watching lately and saw no post title on this.

There's all sorts of outflow boundaries shooting around down there and signs of twists. Something's trying to form, but all together too weak and thin for anything to come together.

[gatorcane]

Well the upper-level winds are strong but one cannot ignore any persistent convection complex in the SW Caribbean as we are seeing now, especially since it is June. If it persists then it should be watched:

[boca]

If it gets pulled northward I'll be concerned about it, otherwise it will probably go into Nicaragua.

[gatorcane]

Looks like the SW Caribbean blob is Northward bound. If it is still there this time tomorrow, it would be indeed interesting.

The ULL over North Florida is expected to weaken over the next few days so winds should gradually become more favorable for development across the Western Caribbean.

[gatorcane]

Pressures do seem to be falling some this afternoon at Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua. 29.91 to 29.83 in 5 hours is a decent drop.

Latest 5 PM (21) Jun 10 80 (27) 78 (26) 29.83 (1010) E 7 rain in the vicinity
4 PM (20) Jun 10 78 (26) 77 (25) 29.85 (1011) NNE 5 light drizzle
3 PM (19) Jun 10 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.88 (1012) E 5 light drizzle
2 PM (18) Jun 10 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.88 (1012) ENE 12 drizzle
1 PM (17) Jun 10 84 (29) 78 (26) 29.88 (1012) NE 9 rain in the vicinity
Noon (16) Jun 10 82 (28) 78 (26) 29.91 (1013) NNE 14 rain in the vicinity

[KWT]

Also the ULL will probably continue to move out to the north whilst weakening so the upper conditions whilst probably still not great will improve. As we've seen before with June systems if we can get constant convective bursting, enough so we can form a circulation then even under moderate shear we can still see a reasonably strong lop-sided tropical systems.

To be honest I don't think anything will come from this but its something to watch.

[MGC]

Seems to be a bit of a spin over the Yucatan this evening. Might be an illusion. Need to keep an eye on the SW Carb though......MGC

[srainhoutx]

Monsoon trough, vorticies and stalled frontal boundries are not a good mix IMHO. Little more time.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tropical/satpix ... v_loop.php