June 10-15th severe weather thread

[wbug1]

A major derecho and possible tornado(s) moved through Toledo and other areas in Ohio. In Clayton, OH, 22 rail cars derailed. 100's of trees down in Toledo and damage to mobile homes in the area, including some on fire. A 117 mph wind gust (unofficial) was recorded in Lyons, OH.

[KWT]

Thats really impressive wind speeds there!

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
526 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

OHC099-133-101000-
/O.CON.KCLE.SV.W.0064.000000T0000Z-080610T1000Z/
MAHONING OH-PORTAGE OH-
526 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 AM EDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN PORTAGE AND MAHONING COUNTIES...

AT 523 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR CRAIG BEACH...OR ABOUT 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WARREN...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 61 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
BOARDMAN...AUSTINTOWN...YOUNGSTOWN AND CAMPBELL

LAT...LON 4093 8082 4092 8089 4106 8107 4113 8096
4112 8052
TIME...MOT...LOC 0926Z 227DEG 53KT 4113 8091

$$

Lots of small slight risks and a moderate risk for today in the far NE...

[liveweatherman]

SPC AC 100559

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2008

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NY...VT...PA AND
NJ...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NEW
ENGLAND...NY...MID-ATLANTIC AND THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SE MT...NRN WY...SD AND
SW ND...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN WI AND
LOWER MI...

...NERN STATES...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL ACCELERATE NEWD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. IN RESPONSE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
EWD ACROSS THE REGION. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F AHEAD
OF THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS MOST OF
THE WARM SECTOR. STRONG FORCING DUE TO THE FRONT AND LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. A SQUALL-LINE SHOULD ORGANIZE AND MOVE
QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA INCREASE VERTICAL
SHEAR PROFILES AS A 60 TO 75 KT MID-LEVEL JET MOVES NEWD INTO THE
NRN APPALACHIAN MTNS THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHEAR SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE
OF NUMEROUS SEVERE STORMS AS A LINEAR MCS DEVELOPS. SUPERCELLS WILL
BE POSSIBLE UPON INITIATION BUT THE STRONG FORCING SHOULD FAVOR
LINEAR DEVELOPMENT. STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
BELOW 3 KM SHOULD PRODUCE A WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH
BOWING LINE SEGMENTS.

FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NC...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD DUE TO WEAKER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT.
HOWEVER...MODEL FORECASTS DEVELOP VERY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED
SEVERE THREAT AS STORMS DEVELOP IN THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAINS BY EARLY THIS
EVENING.

[KWT]

Yep looks like we will have to watch the NE states today. There is also risks for the rest of the week but they are at slight at the moment.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I lived in Saratoga Springs for seven months when I was assigned to NPTU Ballston Spa.


Now I have something with a personal connection.

[HarlequinBoy]

It looks mostly like a wind event.

[CrazyC83]

Moderate risk just extended south into the Baltimore-Washington area.

[CrazyC83]

Mean storms near the Canadian border:

NYC033-089-101645-
/O.CON.KBTV.SV.W.0005.000000T0000Z-080610T1645Z/
FRANKLIN NY-ST. LAWRENCE NY-
1217 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1245 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE AND SOUTHWESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK...

AT 1214 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 80 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTH OF
FULLERVILLE..MOVING NORTHEAST AT 59 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
FINE AND OSWEGATCHIE AROUND 1225 PM EDT.
DEGRASSE AND NEWTON FALLS AROUND 1230 PM EDT.
CLARE AROUND 1235 PM EDT.
STARK AND CARRY FALLS RESERVOIR AROUND 1245 PM EDT.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EDT TUESDAY EVENING
FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED... ACT
QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH
AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

LAT...LON 4488 7465 4429 7412 4414 7410 4405 7507
4431 7568
TIME...MOT...LOC 1617Z 233DEG 51KT 4418 7523

$$

JAN

[HarlequinBoy]

Moderate risk just extended south into the Baltimore-Washington area.

Yep. I think that's the first time I've seen a MOD in an area not even included in a 2% tornado threat. Definitely a major wind threat today.

[CrazyC83]

SEL0

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 500
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
115 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN AND CENTRAL MAINE
MOST OF NEW HAMPSHIRE
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 115 PM UNTIL
1000 PM EDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 130 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF BANGOR MAINE TO 25 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
PORTSMOUTH NEW HAMPSHIRE. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH
SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 499...

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF NH/ME IN REGION OF STRONG DAYTIME HEATING
AND MODERATE INSTABILITY. A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT IS LIKELY
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WATCH AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
AS LINE OF SEVERE STORMS OVER NY MOVES INTO REGION. DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26030.


...HART

[CrazyC83]

SPC AC 101718

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1218 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2008

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF ERN NEB AND WRN
IA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO
CNTRL PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...

STRONG MID AND UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EWD ACROSS MT WITH
ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAXIMUM/70-80 KT MIDLEVEL JET STREAK ROTATING
NEWD FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS INTO NRN PLAINS DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE PERIOD. IN THE LOW LEVELS...SURFACE CYCLONE INITIALLY
OVER N-CNTRL NEB/S-CNTRL SD WILL DEVELOP NEWD INTO SRN MN WITH
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. BY
LATE AFTERNOON...TRAILING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM
SURFACE LOW SWD INTO ERN NEB AND SWWD INTO NWRN KS.

...UPPER MS VALLEY INTO CNTRL PLAINS...

SLY LLJ IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS SYSTEM
WARM SECTOR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO PERHAPS LOWER 70S. THIS
MOISTURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND STEEP MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE
DAY WITH THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING OVER THE MID MO VALLEY
WHERE MLCAPES WILL APPROACH 3000-3500 J/KG.

ELEVATED TSTMS SHOULD BE ONGOING WEDNESDAY MORNING WITHIN ZONE OF
ENHANCED WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG LLJ AXIS OVER PORTIONS OF SD/MN
PERHAPS INTO ERN NEB/IA. THESE PROCESSES WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN THIS
ELEVATED TSTM REGIME THROUGH THE PERIOD TO THE N OF SURFACE WARM
FRONT WITH LARGE HAIL/ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST
INTENSE STORMS.

MORE SIGNIFICANT...SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON FROM VICINITY OF WARM FRONT OR DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SWD/SWWD ALONG FRONT OVER ERN NEB INTO
N-CNTRL KS. THE COMBINATION OF THE MODERATE/STRONG INSTABILITY AND
40-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SUGGEST A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
TORNADOES. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE
EVENING /IN CONCERT WITH THE LLJ/ AND THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A
COUPLE STRONG TORNADOES ACROSS MDT RISK AREA.

STORMS SHOULD GROW UPSCALE INTO MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OR AN MCS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL.

..MEAD.. 06/10/2008

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0800Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1725Z (1:25PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[CrazyC83]

Date that Watch 500 was issued:

2008 - June 10
2007 - July 9
2006 - June 16
2005 - June 19
2004 - June 20
2003 - June 9
2002 - July 8
2001 - July 2
2000 - June 25

[Ed Mahmoud]

JB was complaining, sort of, that SPC hadn't issued a MODERATE on the morning SWODY2.

I e-mailed him, and pointed out that the area in question was in a hatched and 30% area, and that SPC doesn't like to go higher than 'SLIGHT' on a Day 2 unless they are really sure.

I noticed now that it is MODERATE they've bumped up the max severe probability to 45%

[CrazyC83]

Reports from the Northeast: Significant wind damage in northern New York and Vermont. Also on the Canadian side I have heard possible tornadoes and softball size hail.

[wbug1]

Yup, 63,000 without power in Montreal and light posts and trees down. Event is still ongoing.

[wbug1]

Some heavy cells moving into the Baltimore/Washington/Fredericksburg area again. Severe TS warnings up.

[Squarethecircle]

I don't see anything like the derecho that hit us a while back, so I may be able to keep my power this time around.

[Bunkertor]

JB was complaining, sort of, that SPC hadn't issued a MODERATE on the morning SWODY2.

I e-mailed him, and pointed out that the area in question was in a hatched and 30% area, and that SPC doesn't like to go higher than 'SLIGHT' on a Day 2 unless they are really sure.

I noticed now that it is MODERATE they've bumped up the max severe probability to 45%

And again the NE IA border. That´s crazy.

[snoopj]

JB was complaining, sort of, that SPC hadn't issued a MODERATE on the morning SWODY2.

I e-mailed him, and pointed out that the area in question was in a hatched and 30% area, and that SPC doesn't like to go higher than 'SLIGHT' on a Day 2 unless they are really sure.

I noticed now that it is MODERATE they've bumped up the max severe probability to 45%

And again the NE IA border. That´s crazy.

That's it. I'm putting a Saran Wrap bubble over NE Iowa. The last thing they need now is more rain.

--j

[Category 5]

I'm right outside the MDT, and just waiting to be disapointed.

I'm also waiting for this, I've tracked it close to philly almost riding the Delaware river by the time it gets here.

WUUS51 KLWX 102230
SVRLWX
MDC005-025-102330-
/O.NEW.KLWX.SV.W.0142.080610T2229Z-080610T2330Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
629 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN BALTIMORE COUNTY IN NORTHERN MARYLAND...
HARFORD COUNTY IN NORTHERN MARYLAND...

* UNTIL 730 PM EDT

* AT 628 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR FALLSTON...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FALLSTON...
PLEASANT HILLS...
JARRETTSVILLE...
BEL AIR...
ABERDEEN...
DARLINGTON...
HAVRE DE GRACE...

HAIL TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED
IN THE WARNED AREA. STAY INDOORS AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE
STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 3972 7622 3970 7622 3965 7615 3962 7615
3956 7608 3954 7608 3936 7650 3946 7663
3971 7673 3973 7623
TIME...MOT...LOC 2229Z 240DEG 29KT 3950 7649

$$
LISTEMAA/STRONG