The Lushine Dry SFL May Theory Will Be Tested During 2008

[Blown Away]

I think the Jim Lushine dry SFL theory is on the clock. I emailed and asked Robert Molleda from the NWS about this theory and here are some answers he provided to me:

(1) Jim Lushine used rainfall data from Miami International Airport for his study. (2) Jim Lushine told him that rain amounts favorable for SFL hurricanes were either one or two standard deviations below average, or something around 1” for the month of May. (3) Robert said there have been correlation studies and these studies couldn’t come up with a strong correlation between dry Mays and SFL rainfall. Thus, they discounted this theory until they can do a more thorough analysis area wide. (4) Robert said the SFL rainy season officially began May 22, 2008.

The Miami International Airport rainfall total for May 2008 was 1.58”, the average is @5.3”. I don't think any conclusions can be made on this theory if a hurricane does or does not impact SFL during 2008, but for me it will be interesting to follow the 2008 Hurricane Season and see how this theory plays out.

May 08:



May 04:
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[KWT]

Yep I think we may finally be able to test this theory. To be honest I'm rather hoping the theory is wrong but we will see!

[Frank2]

I still think the dryness has more to do with global climate changes now seen in many areas of the world, rather than an indicator of an upcoming "favorable" weather pattern during the hurricane season...

With all due respect to Jim...

[Sanibel]

Good clouds over the mainland every afternoon but bright and dry right now. No gushers have made it out here yet besides a few ten minute showers.

Remember not every dry May brings a hurricane.

[CajunMama]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=100913

Same topic?

[Blown Away]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=100913
Same topic?

I thought we should start a clean topic now that May is over and we have the May rainfall stats and insight from the NWS.

[boca]

Lets face it the dry May is going to be including June.

EXTENDED FORECAST...
THE HIGH WILL THEN WEAKEN LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHILE MOVING SLOWLY TO THE EAST. AT THE SAME TIME A MID TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WATERS WILL MOVE WEST THIS
WEEKEND...AND SHOULD BE NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW THIS LOW TO MOVE NORTH AND NORTHEAST DURING
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS AN MID TO UPPER LEVEL THROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN WOULD KEEP
SOUTH FLORIDA DRY DURING EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THIS
IS THE FIRST RUN SHOWING THIS PATTERN. SO PLAN ON KEEPING THE SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE CAT OVER THE CWA...BUT SHIFTING THE HIGHEST POPS
TO EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
LOW.

June is our second wettest month of the year next to Sept.

[Decomdoug]

I noticed this article in reference to a link between a dry May and the reduced lovebug population

"Most local bug experts attribute the low lovebug count to a drier-than-normal May. The South Florida Water Management District reports that, after three consecutive months of above-average rainfall, the area received below-average rainfall in May. District-wide rainfall veraged 1.84 inches in May, about 2.35 inches below the historical average for the month."


http://www.tcpalm.com/news/2008/jun/06/ ... ps-a-beat/

I hope the "offical start of the rainy season" works it's way up here to St. Lucie county soon. Dry as popcorn up here right now.

[jinftl]

Are there any studies that have looked at the possible correlation between drier than normal Junes and hurricanes in South Florida?

[Patrick99]

Yeah, we are having a dry June too. And I don't see much end to it......that upper level low is far from a given, if it stays east of us, we get even drier.

[gatorcane]

We are on an east-wind pattern with no break in sight. It's due to a strong Bermuda High off the East Coast of the U.S which is parked for the time being. This pattern would favor U.S landfall strikes if there were any hurricanes in the Western subtropical Atlantic. Obviously things can change alot from now until the season really cranks up in August regarding Bermuda High positioning. Better to have a strong one now, then during the peak in my opinion.

[Sanibel]

Ah, finally thunderheads flashing at night over the Gulf to the south. And passing showers. I missed you rainy season.

[Blown Away]

Sun Sentinel article on Bermuda High and Lushine theory:
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/weathe ... 5654.story

[DanKellFla]

More data for Mr. Lushine!!!!! Hopefully, he is wrong.

[gatorcane]

we shall see (snippet from article below):

"Because 1.71 inches of rain fell in Miami last month, almost 4 inches below normal, Lushine said, "It would not surprise me if we had something to worry about in August or September."

[jinftl]

So far, the rainfall deficits are only growing from what we saw in May....and June is typically the wettest month in South Florida.

Rainfall observed through June 10,

Miami - 0.97" month to date (Avg Rainfall for entire month = 8.54")

Fort Lauderdale - 0.25" month to date (Avg Rainfall for entire month = 9.89")

West Palm Beach - 0.15" month to date (Avg Rainfall for entire month = 7.58")

[Sanibel]

Strong seabreeze front conditions south west and central Florida. We had a good rainy season downpour yesterday and expected again today according to NOAA. Lawn grass greening.

[Frank2]

As someone who's considered Jim an old workplace friend, I hope he doesn't mind if I say that hopefully he'll be proven wrong this time (or at least off by a few hundred miles to the east)...

[Nimbus]

And coming into July we have a strong central atlantic ridge and an active wave train coming off Africa. Sure hope the pattern changes before August.

[Sanibel]

Glad someone else is seeing that.