Long Range Models

[Recurve]

It will always be interesting how the GFDL had Katrina diving south off the coast of Florida. Though the intensity was way off, it had some insight into the track that no other model and no forecaster seemed to see.

[Opal storm]

[boca]

Opal thats great since i'm a long time trekkie.

[Meso]

Not exactly long range,but GFS wants to develop something in the EPAC within 140 hours



Euro has something in 240 hours

[Meso]

Old image

[Meso]

[Sjones]

Alot of room for error there, however, IMO I believe that the GFS will be the model with the most accuracy this Hurricane Season...

[canegrl04]

Whether we have this thread or not, there will still be "GFS has major cane into Florida at 312 hours".

I do recall the Canadian models wanting to destroy Florida and La. last season

[Meso]

lol,that's quite a potent lil wave the euro has over africa

[Meso]

Long range CMC showing a 990mb low in the gulf in 240 hours

[Meso]

[Meso]

Possible sub-tropical storm?

[Ed Mahmoud]

GFS has a healthy looking tropical wave, although one with very little surface reflection, Mid-Atlantic in a week. For what it is worth.

[NDG]

12z GFS tries to develop something tropical or subtropical in the NE GOM on Sunday from some energy coming out of the northern gulfcoast and then move it towards the FL Peninsula. I am putting this as fantasy for right now.

[micktooth]

Let's just keep this thread going all season! That way we can see what really pans out. How many pages do you think it will get up to?

[wobblehead]

I rely on the CMC. Right now it is showing developement in my bath tub 184 hours out.

[jimvb]

2008 June 11 12Z and 18Z GFS both show a storm bopping out of mid-ITCZ on June 21 and heading towards the Outer Banks on the 27th, at 384 hours. This storm has been in the farout GFS now for at least 4 iterations, although in 0Z and 6Z it shows it going into the GOM. Fairy tale at this point, but if the pattern persists, need to take a look at this.

[Derek Ortt]

It will always be interesting how the GFDL had Katrina diving south off the coast of Florida. Though the intensity was way off, it had some insight into the track that no other model and no forecaster seemed to see.

John Cangialosi (now at NHC) had that insight.

I was just too stupid to listen to him at the time

[Ivanhater]

GFS showing a tropical storm hitting the Islands then coming close to South Florida by 384 hours. Yes chances are low this far out which has been said enough! Thats why this is the long range thread

[Meso]

Thank God! The models show something,well at least one of them..That GFS storm appears to move off Africa in a few days and then form once in the Caribbean.

EURO shows a small low in the EPAC
in 240 hours

NOGAPS and CMC have a little something in the E.Pac around 100 hours

CMC
NOGAPS