Potential in the GOM?

[dixiebreeze]

Thoughts anyone.....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/rb-l.jpg

[dixiebreeze]

Visible loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

[tailgater]

I hadn't seen your post, Dixie when I started this one which is about the same region so I'll get mine deleted.

There is a a large ULL in the western Gulf but conditions become a little more favorable over the next few days, if nothing else the gulf coast will get some much needed rain.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/gparm/xyrfpr.gif
Moisture moving Northward
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8vor4.GIF

Conditions over the next few days
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/TROPDEV/dev24.gif
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/TROPDEV/dev72.gif
Shear will help limit development
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/gparm/xyrshr.gif

Probably nothing, but we Know how quick things can spin up and mess up the weekend plans.

[dixiebreeze]

That's true tailgater, GOM storms can spin up really quickly. Any rain would sure be welcome in west central Florida.

[NDG]

I agree with tailgater, just some moisture heading to the gulfcoast, ULL in the western GOM is enhancing the convection, surface pressures are high except in the BOC. If the moisture & vorticity would hang around through early next week in the NE GOM things could get interesting then.

[micktooth]

Great links Tailgater. I have so many bookmarks but not all of the ones that you provided. Thanks and Geaux Tigers!

[tailgater]

I'm surprised that this area is not getting more play, it's a little more interesting to me than 91 ATT. The area north of the Yucatan has at least a little mid level spin to it and should bring lots of rain to someone along the GC. pressures are still high but I'll be watching the buoy in the central gulf till this evening( short Vacation). Should move NW into Texas. Not much time for development thankfully.

[srainhoutx]

We will gladly take the rain. We need it.

[tailgater]

Great links Tailgater. I have so many bookmarks but not all of the ones that you provided. Thanks and Geaux Tigers!

Thanks Mick, I guess you heard the Baseball team is in the CWS.
This one takes a little while to load.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_GULF/sat_22.gif

[Ed Mahmoud]

The low level flow is coming out from under this area, or towards Texas. Besides the fact that it is sheared by a dry ULL to its West, there doesn't seem to be much/any convergence near the surface.


We need the rain, and it looks like low level moisture is headed this way.


In my unofficial opinion, no worries (and its June, the season isn't cancelled yet) the next week.

[gatorcane]

Upper-level winds are highly unfavorable for development at this time. They are blowing out of the WNW at around 30K+. That is the wrong direction for development as tropical systems move generally East to West. Then a trough is expected to move in within the next few days and increase them even more.

[tailgater]

I'm not argueing for this to do anything, but where is the highly unfavorable conditions coming from. This site shows neither
http://www.wunderground.com/data/640x480/atlm_shear.gif

Just looking at this loop their does seem to be a very narrow Upper High developing in the central gulf.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html
As Ed, said convergence is low.

[HouTXmetro]

Illusion or is that an MLC?

[Ed Mahmoud]

As long as it is cranking out outflow boundaries,it is in no hurry to do anything of a tropical nature.

[Frank2]

It's the ULL that crossed Florida two days ago:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

it's still moving west...

[vbhoutex]

As much as I want/need the rain, I am not so sure that it will even make it to Texas. A lot will depend on how deep the trough coming in from the NW digs. This could actually be a Cental Gulf Coast "event".
With that said I have to admit the troughs haven't made much headway South of late, so we may get luckjy and get some of it.

[Sanibel]

Looks like a ghost system from that SW Carribean wave. Too cool, dry, early, and too much shear.

[Ed Mahmoud]

As much as I want/need the rain, I am not so sure that it will even make it to Texas. A lot will depend on how deep the trough coming in from the NW digs. This could actually be a Cental Gulf Coast "event".
With that said I have to admit the troughs haven't made much headway South of late, so we may get luckjy and get some of it.

Getting a sprinkle at the Galleria already!

[Ptarmigan]

As much as I want/need the rain, I am not so sure that it will even make it to Texas. A lot will depend on how deep the trough coming in from the NW digs. This could actually be a Cental Gulf Coast "event".
With that said I have to admit the troughs haven't made much headway South of late, so we may get luckjy and get some of it.

Don't jinx it! We need rain!

[srainhoutx]

As much as I want/need the rain, I am not so sure that it will even make it to Texas. A lot will depend on how deep the trough coming in from the NW digs. This could actually be a Cental Gulf Coast "event".
With that said I have to admit the troughs haven't made much headway South of late, so we may get luckjy and get some of it.

Don't jinx it! We need rain!

REALLY Maybe 2 to 4 drops while doing the yard around mid day.