Tropical Wave In Eastern Caribbean

[gatorcane]

91L is gone but quite a nice burst of convection with this new Wave. Upper-level winds are not very favorable for development but I have noticed they have died down some today. They are still blowing out of the WSW at around 20K. Upper-level winds just WNW of this area of convection are way up there -- around 40K+

Lets enjoy this nice convection while it lasts

[gatorcane]

Another image. This wave is looking pretty decent I have to admit. It's really come out of nowhere and its moving WNW....

[KWT]

Its got a nice burst of convection though is it on a wave or is just an area of convection?

Still its going to clear SA which is better then 91L and if it does hold together for the next 12-24hrs then I wouldn't be totally surprised if its declared an invest if it can carry this on...no certainty about that BUT it has been a fairly presistant over the previous days and was about when 91L was declared. I'd guess 40%, maybe slight higher of being decalred an invest in the next 18hrs.

[Gustywind]

Another image. This wave is looking pretty decent I have to admit. It's really come out of nowhere and its moving WNW....

Absolutley gatorcane, agree with you , hey hey hey you stole my word of the beginning of the season "DECENT WAVE, DECENT WAVE" in most of my posts no problem you won't go to the jail guy lol , but seriously ...what't i'm seeing it's a very concentrated pop/burst and very nice looking wave, i say since mid april, we have at least a decent wave per forecast the trend is getting strong day after day in my subjective opinion without too much conducive conditions we have already this type of waves and the persistence shake me a lot it's awesome, INCREIBLE como le dice. Very promising for July why not for another invest during the next two weeks?!
Check Gatorcane the latest sat pic from Meteo-France
http://www.meteo.gp/EspacePro/donnees/s ... Tagant.jpg Popping and popping nicely... second wave in less than 48h approaching the east carib... become more and more ... DECENTLooks like a mid July wave for me like with strong convection concentrated, let's enjoy it as you well said it gatorcane .

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

Its a nice looking wave but that image does make it look like its being sheared to some extent already, esp with the way the convection elongates to the east. Still the shear is slowly decreasing in that region compared to recent days. Does sort of suggest that things are starting to warm up down there now though still probably 1-2 months away before the cape verde season really gets going.

Still needs to be watched, probably best chance it will have will be in the W.Cairbbean as you'd expect at this time of year of course.

[cycloneye]

Is moving WNW according to this radar from Martinique.



http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... SAIC2.html

[KWT]

Very interesting cycloneye its further north then 91L so its going to have a better chance however shear looks on the high side IMO still.

Can anyone confirm whether this is a wave structure or just a mass of convection?

[Gustywind]

Its a nice looking wave but that image does make it look like its being sheared to some extent already, esp with the way the convection elongates to the east. Still the shear is slowly decreasing in that region compared to recent days. Does sort of suggest that things are starting to warm up down there now though still probably 1-2 months away before the cape verde season really gets going.

Still needs to be watched, probably best chance it will have will be in the W.Cairbbean as you'd expect at this time of year of course.

Looks like an OPEN WAVE of July elongatedtion with less convec, but excellent beginning for the moment glad to see healthy waves

[KWT]

Yeah its a nice start to the season esp given the cape verde season is still a good couple of months away.

A question...does an active wave train that comes out of Africa increase the chance sof above average precip in the Caribbean, logically I'd say yes but I'm just curious.

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 121942
RWSVI
000
AWCA82 TJSJ 121942
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
500 PM AST THU JUN 12 2008
A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE
LOCAL ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST
THIS EVENING AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT AND
EARLY TOMORROW...WHILE A STRONGER SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO APPROACH THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...PRODUCING A GENERAL INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...
THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. FOR
TONIGHT...CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD ACROSS
PUERTO RICO LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING.
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...MARINERS CAN EXPECT AN EAST SOUTHEAST
WIND FLOW OF AROUND 10 TO 17 KNOTS WIND OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS AND
SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT.
WINDS...SEAS...CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
LOCAL REGIONAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVES
Hey KWT given the NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR, it's the signature of a tropical wave...and a stronger so it's a twave and not a mass of convection!
http://www.meteo.gp/donnees/satellite/tag/TagBisat.jpg
We should experience tommorow night a slight deterioration because the convection is gaining power, on the loop you can see the red area...very small but concentrated convective twave poping nicely east of Barbados=convective twave

http://www.meteo.gp/EspacePro/Satellite ... ram=ir_ant

[KWT]

Well that is very interesting. If ths shear presists then obviously its going to have a hard time really developing into anything in the eastern Caribbean but if its a tropical wave then its chances will probably raise quite a bit in the western Caribbean. Going to bear watching I feel.

[HUC]

Nice convection,indeed ESE of Barbados. Let's see the next hours;this is the begining of evening max, and it will be better loook at the system around midnight to see what it got in store.

Hey,guys,if we are spending the whole night asleep to these simple waves,what it will be in the pick of the season!!!

[OURAGAN]

Convection is increasing, Méteo France don't mention it

[cycloneye]

Nice convection,indeed ESE of Barbados. Let's see the next hours;this is the begining of evening max, and it will be better loook at the system around midnight to see what it got in store.

Hey,guys,if we are spending the whole night asleep to these simple waves,what it will be in the pick of the season!!!

Thats true HUC.I know that Guadeloupe needs plenty of rain to aliviate the drought conditions there and this wave may provide some relief to that.

[KWT]

Yep HUC I dont know what I'm going to be like once recon starts getting into these systems if I'm up at 12am ust watching tropical waves!

cycloneye I didn't know they had drought conditions but hopefully a nice set of tropical waves help to reduce the problem.

[Gustywind]

HI Huc! glad to see you, i have to admit that i was very happy Sunday glad to see our friends ... Very amazing pretty interresting pattern, and i note that they have 100% relative humidity in Barbabos tonight 6PM, and in Grenada pressure was at 1011 hpa at 5PM

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TGPY.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html
Burst of convection ese of Barbados are trying to boil
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-ir4.html
Hey Huc do you tkink that we could experience some tstorms tomorrow night ?
Pr forecasts are very confident with this strong wave ...

[Gustywind]

Convection is increasing, Méteo France don't mention it

Absolutely Ouragan, i note it in their last forecast, it's very doubtfull with this wave, things can change quickly, hope that tommorow they correct it if the waves continues is growing trend!

[Gustywind]

Nice convection,indeed ESE of Barbados. Let's see the next hours;this is the begining of evening max, and it will be better loook at the system around midnight to see what it got in store.

Hey,guys,if we are spending the whole night asleep to these simple waves,what it will be in the pick of the season!!!

Thats true HUC.I know that Guadeloupe needs plenty of rain to aliviate the drought conditions there and this wave may provide some relief to that.

We hope that cycloneye, maybe this one should provide that because we are suffering a little from the moderate drought as you well said.

[KWT]

For what its worth the convection has been deepenig since this afternoon which does suggest that the heat content is on the increase which means now the main problem has to be the upper atmospheric conditions.