Potential in the GOM?

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srainhoutx
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Re: Potential in the GOM?

#41 Postby srainhoutx » Fri Jun 13, 2008 12:01 pm

Purhaps a little drill is going on inside the NHC/TPC. Interesting that the word "Invest" is posted on site with floater. Will agree with surprises.
Last edited by srainhoutx on Fri Jun 13, 2008 12:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Potential in the GOM?

#42 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 13, 2008 12:08 pm

Perhaps they may do test runs on it.
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: Potential in the GOM?

#43 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Fri Jun 13, 2008 12:14 pm

Not a word on the TWOAT and nothing on the recon tasking.


And fresh arc cloud racing out from the convection.


Somebody may decide it is an invest, but I will unofficially lower my unoffical SWAG of probability of development, with far too many sig figs implying an unreasonable degree of accuracy, of tropical depression development in the next 48 hours down to 1.41747%.
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Re: Potential in the GOM?

#44 Postby Decomdoug » Fri Jun 13, 2008 12:28 pm

Ed Mahmoud wrote:Not a word on the TWOAT and nothing on the recon tasking.


And fresh arc cloud racing out from the convection.


Somebody may decide it is an invest, but I will unofficially lower my unoffical SWAG of probability of development, with far too many sig figs implying an unreasonable degree of accuracy, of tropical depression development in the next 48 hours down to 1.41747%.


I believe that is what we call "Two chances, slim and none"
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Re: Potential in the GOM?

#45 Postby srainhoutx » Fri Jun 13, 2008 12:36 pm

ABNT20 KNHC 131732
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1732.shtml
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Re: Potential in the GOM?

#46 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Fri Jun 13, 2008 12:59 pm

I guess something that was never alive can be dead...
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Re: Potential in the GOM?

#47 Postby srainhoutx » Fri Jun 13, 2008 1:08 pm

Possibly due to some relaxing of shear, ULL "could" work down to the surface over time. Bill Read and the Humberto experience comes to mind. Oh well, sure could use some good tropical rain. :ggreen:
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Re: Potential in the GOM?

#48 Postby GeneratorPower » Fri Jun 13, 2008 1:19 pm

Ed Mahmoud wrote:Not a word on the TWOAT and nothing on the recon tasking.


And fresh arc cloud racing out from the convection.


Somebody may decide it is an invest, but I will unofficially lower my unoffical SWAG of probability of development, with far too many sig figs implying an unreasonable degree of accuracy, of tropical depression development in the next 48 hours down to 1.41747%.


Accuracy or precision? The extra significant figures would indicate a precision problem, eh?
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Re: Potential in the GOM?

#49 Postby lrak » Fri Jun 13, 2008 2:04 pm

23N 92W is where I see some rotation in the lower levels. Also a little bit of convection is being sheared just over that spot, the visible satellite sure can play tricks on the eye! :D
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#50 Postby HouTXmetro » Fri Jun 13, 2008 2:14 pm

Today is the 13th. Didn't the Farmers Almanac predict a Tropical Cyclone would threaten the TX/LA Coast from June 16-19th? I know there are no current signs of development but maybe this will be the threat they predicted.
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#51 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Jun 13, 2008 2:19 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-vis.html

The HDW-high shows that there is an ULL over the area of convection. Even if a LLC develops, it will struggle to get going.
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Re: Potential in the GOM?

#52 Postby tolakram » Fri Jun 13, 2008 2:32 pm

Outflow boundaries flying off the storms in the last few frames, it's about to go poof.
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Re: Potential in the GOM?

#53 Postby NDG » Fri Jun 13, 2008 2:34 pm

If they placed a floater on the GOM ULL they must be as bored as many of us are. :lol:
They might as well take a long weekend vacation, because there is nothing happening during the next few days.
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Re: Potential in the GOM?

#54 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Jun 13, 2008 2:37 pm

NDG wrote:If they placed a floater on the GOM ULL they must be as bored as many of us are. :lol:
They might as well take a long weekend vacation, because there is nothing happening during the next few days.


At the surface they have a trough but in the upper levels there is an ULC.

Image
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Re: Potential in the GOM?

#55 Postby flwxwatcher » Fri Jun 13, 2008 4:24 pm

NDG wrote:If they placed a floater on the GOM ULL they must be as bored as many of us are. :lol:
They might as well take a long weekend vacation, because there is nothing happening during the next few days.

Agreed, not much happening , which is typical for June. :D
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Re: Potential in the GOM?

#56 Postby Recurve » Fri Jun 13, 2008 5:50 pm

Convection looks decent and seems like upper winds are somewhat diffluent, is there any convergence at the surface?
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Re: Potential in the GOM?

#57 Postby dixiebreeze » Fri Jun 13, 2008 6:39 pm

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Re:

#58 Postby Sjones » Fri Jun 13, 2008 7:07 pm

HouTXmetro wrote:Today is the 13th. Didn't the Farmers Almanac predict a Tropical Cyclone would threaten the TX/LA Coast from June 16-19th? I know there are no current signs of development but maybe this will be the threat they predicted.



My thoughts exactly...The Farmers Almanac has been wrong before, but not many. However, the dates are usually a little early than when something actually threats the area. For example it had a Hurricane threat in August for LA in 2005 which was Katrina, but the Farmers Almanac was off by about a week if I remember correctly...
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Re: Potential in the GOM?

#59 Postby srainhoutx » Fri Jun 13, 2008 7:23 pm

As "Doc" Neil Frank would say, "I sure don't like seeing all those clouds down there".
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#60 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Jun 13, 2008 7:46 pm

Image

Nothing here.
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