Long Range Models

[Meso]

180 Hour GFS

[Meso]

The CMC is also showing what the GFS was the other day off the S.E coast,what looks like a possible subtropical storm forming on the end of a front which looks to be over Florida

And the GFS is finally showing signs of some action within the next 2 and a half weeks on the 06z run

[cycloneye]

6/13/08 12z EURO

For what its worth its 240 hours but this 12z EURO run has something in the Central Caribbean.

[cycloneye]

6/14/08 12z EURO

It has still a Central Caribbean system.

[Ed Mahmoud]

6/14/08 12z EURO

It has still a Central Caribbean system.

Hard to tell with the low resolution of the free displays of the Euro, but that may be an open wave with a wind surge. Nothing at 500 mb suggests an organized system.

[cycloneye]

Hey folks,from now the long range GFS extends to July.But anything on the first day of the month.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_384l.gif

[cycloneye]

6/16/08 00z EURO

The only significant thing the EURO has in ten days is a EPAC system.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 6z GFS shows two interesting areas in the Atlantic at hour 384. One is in the SW Caribbean and another is just west of Africa...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_384l.gif

[Meso]

Yeah,the one off Africa was there on the previous run as well,as for the S.W Caribbean,it seems there is a low pressure there almost throughout the entire run.I`m guessing it's just an area of lower pressure that remains there.

[KWT]

Yeah Meso maybe a hint of the Monsoon trough again drifting into that oart of the Caribbean. As for the African system, way to far into the future to really know about that system.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 12z CMC tries to develop something in the southern Caribbean in 5-6 days...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[NDG]

The 12z CMC tries to develop something in the southern Caribbean in 5-6 days...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

Your link is actually from last night's run, here is the link for the 12z run in which it drops the low that it develops and tracks towards the southern Caribbean.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2008061912&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[Extremeweatherguy]

oh, you're right, that was last night's run. Sorry about that.

[Meso]

[Duddy]

Finally!!!!!!!!

[Sjones]

Finally!!!!!!!!

Don't get too excited... Still a long shot!

[Stormcenter]

Finally!!!!!!!!

Don't get too excited... Still a long shot!

Phantom storm.

[Eyewall]

Looks like the tropics will heat up in July. Right in line with my forecast for two or three stormes in that month. Also the GFS steering currents for July puts the Gulf Coast at risk.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 12z GFS shows a system near the northern islands in 384 hours. It is most likely just another phantom storm that will disappear in future runs, but it is interesting none the less.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_384l.gif

[CourierPR]

The 12z GFS shows a system near the northern islands in 384 hours. It is most likely just another phantom storm that will disappear in future runs, but it is interesting none the less.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_384l.gif

Given that we are heading into July, I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss this as a phantom storm.