June 10-15th severe weather thread

[Bunkertor]

Storm chaser video from *inside* of a tornado in Iowa. Insane.

http://atvs.vg.no/player/?id=17106

ETA: This was Western Iowa, June 11, 2008. Supposedly the same storm as the Boy Scout camp twister.

Details: http://www.ksn.com/news/local/19821904.html

http://www.severestudios.com/

Good work ! I saw it on Larry King yesterday, but i didn´t pay enough attention, obviously.
I though, they were driving through rain or so.

[KWT]

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
OKC089-140945-
/O.NEW.KSHV.SV.W.0360.080614T0845Z-080614T0945Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
345 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN MCCURTAIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 445 AM CDT

* AT 340 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM SMITHVILLE TO 9 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF BETHEL...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
BEACHTON...SHERWOOD AND MOUNT HERMAN BY 350 AM CDT...
WATSON BY 355 AM CDT...
PLUNKETVILLE BY 405 AM CDT...
HOCHATOWN BY 415 AM CDT...

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. ALSO VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ONE HOUR AMOUNTS
TO NEAR ONE TO ONE AND ONE AND A HALF INCHES WILL OCCUR.

LAT...LON 3450 9446 3430 9445 3420 9446 3419 9447
3409 9447 3405 9447 3402 9450 3423 9506
3452 9472 3452 9450
TIME...MOT...LOC 0845Z 288DEG 30KT 3448 9464 3428 9494

$$

[HURAKAN]

[Bunkertor]

Crazy weather over there. Snow in the Rockies. 46 °C in AZ, Water in IA.

[snoopj]

Storm chaser video from *inside* of a tornado in Iowa. Insane.

http://atvs.vg.no/player/?id=17106

ETA: This was Western Iowa, June 11, 2008. Supposedly the same storm as the Boy Scout camp twister.

Details: http://www.ksn.com/news/local/19821904.html

http://www.severestudios.com/

I wondered what happened on the live cam. I was watching that on the live cam or somewhat after when they panned the camera in the vehicle around and showed a couple of his back side windows blown out. The feed went offline shortly after that.

Worst case scenario for storm chasers that day that had to depend up NWS radar data. KOAX being knocked offline for a while in the midst of the storms was not a good thing. These guys are lucky to be still walking on the Earth after that.

--j

[KWT]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
431 PM EDT SAT JUN 14 2008

NCC169-VAC141-142045-
/O.CON.KRNK.SV.W.0167.000000T0000Z-080614T2045Z/
STOKES NC-PATRICK VA-
431 PM EDT SAT JUN 14 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM EDT
FOR CENTRAL PATRICK AND NORTHERN STOKES COUNTIES...

AT 427 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY
SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS
WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM STUART TO 6 MILES NORTHEAST
OF LAWSONVILLE TO PRESTONVILLE...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
STUART TO 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF SANDY RIDGE TO DANBURY...MOVING EAST
AT 26 MPH.

THE LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY
RURAL AREAS OF THE INDICATED COUNTIES..

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...PLEASE CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG AT...1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4.

LAT...LON 3644 8034 3671 8039 3675 8023 3644 8008
TIME...MOT...LOC 2031Z 272DEG 23KT 3667 8024 3655 8017
3645 8015

$$

DS

[Extremeweatherguy]

I am in OKC right now, and I just went through an AWESOME storm on the south side of town! Blinding rains, vivid lightning and nickel to quarter-sized hail.

Here are a few pictures I managed to take during the event on June 13th in south OKC...


^^Thundercloud approaching^^


^^Nickel to Quarter-sized hail falling^^


^^Hail ending and being replaced by blinding rains^^

[Melissa]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1248 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF
THE S CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES...INCLUDING MUCH OF NRN
OKLAHOMA...CNTRL/ERN KANSAS...MUCH OF NRN/WRN MISSOURI...NRN/CNTRL
ILLINOIS...NRN INDIANA...LWR MI AND NW OHIO....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK
AREA...ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...MID MS/OH VLYS AND SRN GREAT
LAKES REGION....

...SYNOPSIS...
THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER NOW NEAR SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY IS
FORECAST TO REDEVELOP SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS WILL
OCCUR AS PHASING SHORT WAVE IMPULSES...WITHIN A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
REGIME TO ITS SOUTH/EAST...DIG THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SAME
TIME...A SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTER IS PROGGED TO REMAIN STRONG ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU/SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN MEXICAN
PLATEAU...WHILE A RIDGE AXIS BUILDS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
ROCKIES...AHEAD OF ANOTHER CLOSED LOW/TROUGH DIGGING WEST OF THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST.

IN RESPONSE TO THE EVOLVING PATTERN...SEASONABLY MODERATE TO STRONG
WEST/NORTHWESTLY UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS...EASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS IS PROGGED TO BE COUPLED WITH THE
PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGH A DEEP LAYER OF THE LOWER/MID
TROPOSPHERE...OVER A FAIRLY BROAD AREA FROM THE NORTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE GREAT
LAKES TROUGH. AND...THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR AN
OUTBREAK OF SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING SEVERAL STORM CLUSTERS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING HAIL AND SWATHS OF STRONG DAMAGING WINDS.

...CNTRL PLAINS THRU THE MID MS VLY AND SRN GREAT LAKES REGION...
WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/
SOUTHERN PLAINS REMAINS VERY WARM...SOME OF THIS AIR IS BEGINNING TO
ADVECT EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER
WESTERLIES...TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SUGGESTING THAT A PRE-FRONTAL THERMAL RIDGE
WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER EASTWARD THROUGH
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BY MID DAY. AND...THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED
TO PROVIDE AT LEAST ONE FOCUS...PERHAPS THE MAIN FOCUS...FOR STORM
INITIATION.

[Melissa]

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
508 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-161200-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
508 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008


THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP MAINLY IN AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF
THE INTERSTATE 35 AND INTERSTATE 135 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING. THESE
STORMS WILL MOST LIKELY BECOME STRONG...BUT A SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL
BE LARGE HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH. THESE
STORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPLODE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ESPECIALLY EAST OF A SALINA TO NEWTON
LINE THIS AFTERNOON. INITIALLY...THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
SUPERCELLS AND TRACK SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 MPH. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ESPECIALLY
EAST OF A SALINA TO WICHITA TO WELLINGTON LINE THIS EVENING. THIS
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERALLY TRAVEL SLOWLY SOUTHEAST
EARLY ON...BUT IT MAY INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND TRACK MORE IN A
SOUTHWARD FASHION DURING THE EVENING AND BECOME A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT WITH WIND SPEEDS UP TO 80 MPH ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT...HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS
LIKE A GOOD BET WHICH MAY CAUSE ADDITIONAL FLOODING IN SOUTHEAST
KANSAS. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD WATCH FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY...BUT THESE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG OR SEVERE.

MORE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES MAY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THESE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES WILL MAINLY
MOVE THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT...BUT COULD LINGER INTO THE MORNING
HOURS. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH MORE HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT.

[Bunkertor]

OK, three watch boxes and three MD´s a 7 o clock. Anyone to explain whats going on ?

[snoopj]

OK, three watch boxes and three MD´s a 7 o clock. Anyone to explain whats going on ?

From the SPCs outlook, looking like the beginning of a day of hail makers and wind makers. Tornadoes can't be ruled out, but they believe it's going to be more of a hail/wind day.

--j

[Bunkertor]

True - the % are quite high...
We know what " can not be ruled out " means

[snoopj]

I don't have access to the numbers for shear and helicity to get an idea of what it could turn into later today. Apparently, it's not enough, at this moment, for the SPC to be thinking much of a tornado event.

I do think that there is a perception that severe weather automatically equals tornado event (I know I've seen it on this board in my years here......don't let the posting amount fool you, I had to recreate an account a while back). Much more to it than that. Either way, there's enough of a threat for hail and wind to warrant a MDT risk.

--j

[Beam]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 539
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
910 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS
MUCH OF NORTHERN MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 910 AM UNTIL 500
PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

EXTREMELY DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 90 MPH...LARGE HAIL
TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN
THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES WEST OF
SALINA KANSAS TO 40 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF KIRKSVILLE MISSOURI.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 536...WW 537...WW 538...

DISCUSSION...RAPIDLY INCREASING SEVERE TSTMS SERN NEB WILL EVOLVE
INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS ACCOMPANIED BY DAMAGING WIND AND
LARGE HAIL AS IT MOVES SEWD INTO THE WATCH. WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND DRY MID LEVELS COUPLED WITH MUCAPE RISING TO AOA 3000
J/KG...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR VERY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 80
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 31035.


...HALES


Wow, they're not fooling around. i can't remember the last time I saw a PDS Severe Thunderstorm watch. 90 MPH? Hell of a deal.

[CrazyC83]

Looks like we are looking at a major derecho today! First PDS severe watch since July 21, 2006. High risk at 1630Z?

[Beam]

Looks like we are looking at a major derecho today! First PDS severe watch since July 21, 2006. High risk at 1630Z?

They'd have to pull 60% over part or all of the hatched area. Doesn't seem likely, but I guess we''ll see.

[CrazyC83]

Looks like we are looking at a major derecho today! First PDS severe watch since July 21, 2006. High risk at 1630Z?

They'd have to pull 60% over part or all of the hatched area. Doesn't seem likely, but I guess we''ll see.

That is very rare, but so are PDS severe watches. There were NONE issued in 2007.

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1393
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0944 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...SE OK...SW AR...NE TX AND NW LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 151444Z - 151645Z

POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STORMS TO REINTENSIFY ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ASSOCIATED WITH SMALL MCS MOVING SWD THROUGH ERN OK. DAMAGING WIND
AND LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
REGARDING ABILITY OF STORMS TO PERSIST...SO WW ISSUANCE WILL
ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON SHORT TERM CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

A SMALL MCS CONTINUES SWD ALONG THE ERN OK/WRN AR BORDER NEAR FORT
SMITH. DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS ACTIVITY THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH STRONG DIABATIC HEATING OF THE MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER AND 7C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LIKELY RESULTING IN
MLCAPE FROM 3000 TO 3500 J/KG BY EARLY AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL REMAIN
IN A WEAKLY FORCED LARGE SCALE ENVIRONMENT...AND PRESENCE OF AT
LEAST A MODEST CAP RAISES UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHETHER OR NOT
ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST. NEVERTHELESS...15 TO 20 KT NLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL MAINTAIN SWD MOVEMENT AND AT LEAST MODEST STORM RELATIVE
INFLOW. NEW CELLS MAY CONTINUE TO GENERATE WITHIN ZONE OF MESOSCALE
LIFT ALONG LEADING GUST FRONT AS THE CAP WEAKENS AND BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZES. IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO PERSIST...THE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR WET DOWNBURSTS
AND LARGE HAIL.

..DIAL.. 06/15/2008

[btangy]

Isn't HALES one of the more 'liberal' forecasters at SPC when it comes to issuing PDS watches? I remember he issued a bunch earlier in the season that ended up not verifying.

[CrazyC83]

Isn't HALES one of the more 'liberal' forecasters at SPC when it comes to issuing PDS watches? I remember he issued a bunch earlier in the season that ended up not verifying.

He does tend to issue PDS watches more than others for borderline situations.