Central Atlantic / Eastern Atlantic

[cycloneye]

[Recurve]

Pretty impressive blob at 25W, very far south, but maybe that low in the mid Atlantic will pull it up some.

[cycloneye]

Has lost some convection but still looks like it has some turning.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I usully ignore these untill Mid-July but darn if this was at 10 N we would be tracking something this week...

[Meso]

[KWT]

Wow what an impressive wave for the time of year, it does appear to have some circulation and its in fiarly warm SST's thanks to how far south is it. Fairly decent convective blob on its Sw side as well.
Its still probably too early for it to do anything but the most impressive wave of the season yet I feel. Africa certainmly is pumping out some impressive early waves.

[cycloneye]

NHC is not enthusiastic about it.

231
ABNT20 KNHC 151722
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

[KWT]

Well probably because its location I'd guess cycloneye as its not a typical area for early season development, besides its only had that presentation for a breif while it needs to hold on to that sort of presentation for at least the next 24-36hrs first.

[Squarethecircle]

Also, it has no model support at all (long term).

[Derek Ortt]

I usully ignore these untill Mid-July but darn if this was at 10 N we would be tracking something this week...

again, people are too hung up on the 10N rule. If there is enough relative vorticity, latitude does not matter. That is why in the WPAC storms osten form south of 5N.

The reaosn why things dont usually form south of 9N in the Atlantic is because there are no significant disturbances south of 9N

[KWT]

To be honest the lack of model support isn't a big deal really, theres clearly some sort of circulation there given the way the convection appears to be curved to some extent.

Derek does this wave have a chance in your opinion?

[HURAKAN]

[Derek Ortt]

that's the WPAC, Sandy

[HURAKAN]

that's the WPAC, Sandy

I guess I clicked the wrong thread!!!

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A NEW TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED OFF THE AFRICAN COAST AND IS
ANALYZED ALONG 18W S OF 12N. THE WAVE IS MOVING WEST AT AN
ESTIMATED SPEED OF 10-15 KT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
BROAD AREA OF AFRICAN DUST N OF 10N EAST OF 35W PREVENTING
AMPLIFICATION OF THIS WAVE. THE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ IS MASKING
ANY DISTINCT SATELLITE SIGNATURE. HOWEVER MIMIC-TPW IMAGERY
INDICATES A MOISTURE SURGE E OF 20W. POSITION IS BASED ON THIS
MOISTURE SURGE AND NEARBY SHIP OBSERVATIONS.

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

[drezee]

Ship has NNW winds near the system. 1009mb pressure

15/18 C6JE5 8.4 -26.9 28.0 25.4 340 11 1009.1 -0.1 29.0 C6JE5

[KWT]

Interesting Dreeze it does look like there is at least some sort of open system out there just ahead of the main wave. Convection has weakened a little as expected as it heads out to sea.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I usully ignore these untill Mid-July but darn if this was at 10 N we would be tracking something this week...

again, people are too hung up on the 10N rule. If there is enough relative vorticity, latitude does not matter. That is why in the WPAC storms osten form south of 5N.

The reaosn why things dont usually form south of 9N in the Atlantic is because there are no significant disturbances south of 9N

The reason I say it is because there happens to be a continent in the way south of 10n Ortt..not because somethig can't form down there...

[SouthFloridawx]

Thank god for African Dust

[cycloneye]