Central Atlantic / Eastern Atlantic

[HURAKAN]

More waves over Africa.

[cycloneye]

This pic was from mid morning but shows a closeup of the system with that circulation.

[Patrick99]

That system really holding together nicely for this time of year. Pretty good tropical weather eye candy.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 160555
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...LOW LEVEL SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND
THE MIMIC-TPW PRODUCT INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS
ALONG 26W/27W ON THE 00Z MAP IS PERHAPS FARTHER EAST ALONG
22W/23W. THERE IS A MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AHEAD OF THE
WAVE AXIS NEAR 6N...BUT IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 8N-10N.

[Gustywind]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8split.jpg
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html
Seems that SAL should inhibit seriously the convection during the wave's trip once it will approach the 40 west, dry air is doting the area, or my eyes are deceiving me???
Whereas upper levels winds seems more slightly favorable this time if the trend is confirmed for an increased wave especially between 8 to 13°N
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

It has begun to poof surely
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/avn-l.jpg
http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/cgi/lis ... 0#controls
Let'see what happens in the next 24h...
Lack ok convection, convection has weakened

[Meso]

That wave emerging off africa now may help with the SAL and provide a bit of relieve for the wave in front.

[Gustywind]

That wave emerging off africa now may help with the SAL and provide a bit of relieve for the wave in front.

Maybe meso, should it verifies first

[KWT]

Well that wave coming off Africa is a good bit further north then most of the waves that have emerged over the last few weeks which is a sign that the ITCZ is starting to pull slowly further north. Some good looking waves in the eastern Atlantic so far in June!

[cycloneye]

Ramdis floater on top of Eastern Atlantic wave.

[ekal]

This wave looks pretty good on visible imagery this afternoon. Low-level clouds are clearly trying to wrap into it from the northwest, and if you look at the floater Cycloneye just posted (link to floater), you will notice a similar inflow channel to the south and southeast of the convection. In the 8:05 AM TWD, NHC had this to say about the wave:

THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY ALONG 26W/27W IS
REPOSITIONING ON THE 0600 UTC MAP ALONG 24W/25W S OF 12N BASED
ON SFC OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LOW LEVEL SATELLITE
DERIVED WINDS. THE MIMIC-TPW PRODUCT ALSO CONFIRMS THE POSITION
OF THE WAVE AXIS. EARLY MORNING VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
DISTINCT LOW/MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AHEAD OF THE WAVE
AXIS NEAR 7N28W...BUT IT APPEARS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS
FROM 6N-10N.

The environment surrounding this wave is somewhat favorable (dust/dry air is at least several hundred miles north of the wave, shear is low, and SSTs are okay). However, as Hyperstorm mentioned earlier, it is embedded in the ITCZ, which may prevent it from ever closing off a surface low. A map of the steering flow doesn't show much opportunity for that to change:

[micktooth]

Are any models picking up on this wave?

[ekal]

Are any models picking up on this wave?

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

The CMC and the GFS both show a subtle bump in the isobars as it approaches the southern Windward Islands, but nothing closes off in these runs.

[rahan]

This one seems to be holding together better than the others. It's only a matter of time before one of these develops.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 161755
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W/28W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 10-15
KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRMS THE POSITION OF THE WAVE AXIS WITH
A DISTINCT LOW/MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AHEAD OF THE WAVE
AXIS NEAR 8N30W...BUT IT APPEARS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
WAVE AXIS FROM 7N-9N.

[curtadams]

I'm surprised this wave/system isn't getting more attention. Cyclonic turning- enough to warp the ITCZ -, obvious outflow, persistent if moderate convection - it looks really good. I've seen some stormy threads over less. The models don't like it, and they usually know what they're doing, but I'm not seeing what they're seeing. Low level flow isn't being affected much - is that it? Or is the convection just going to be too weak to pull out of the ITCZ?

[cycloneye]

The only favorable factor this wave has is plenty of moist air envelope around the wave axis but on the other hand dry air and sal dominate west and north of it.

[Gustywind]

The only favorable factor this wave has is plenty of moist air envelope around the wave axis but on the other hand dry air and sal dominate west and north of it.

That is what i was talking about CYCLONEYE in my previous posts if you read them:
Seems that SAL should inhibit seriously the convection during the wave's trip once it will approach the 40 west, dry air is doting the area, or my eyes are deceiving me??? And 'im not very confident for the future of this wave, will go poof so i'm very doubdtfull..
Whereas upper levels winds seems more slightly favorable this time if the trend is confirmed for an increased wave especially between 8 to 13°N
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

[KWT]

Well this wave may actually help the wave behind it as it'll take the main SAL punch as it heads westwards and as long as the wave behind it can keep up then it may have a little better set-up to work with.

Still for the time of year I'm very impressed with this wave, last year waves seemed to often lose convection at 25-30W even by early August and we are beyond that stage it appears already in mid-June!

[hial2]

Well this wave may actually help the wave behind it as it'll take the main SAL punch as it heads westwards and as long as the wave behind it can keep up then it may have a little better set-up to work with.

I know what you say makes sense, but I've read here several times from the pros that the wave behind helps the one in front and not the other way around, in reference to SAL..

[Meso]

Yep,the SAL tends to surge from the east and attack a wave from 'the back' so waves behind tend to lessen the sal with their moisture and thus creating less SAL to attack the wave in front.Although in this case the SAL extends far South infront of the wave which may change things a bit too,not sure about that

ps: Euro not out yet? an hour late