Central Atlantic / Eastern Atlantic

[gatorcane]

we'll need to keep a close watch on this system especially the further west it gets. Development is very unlikely now but slightly more likely once it reaches the Western Caribbean.

[Gustywind]

For the recurve time will tell but for sure with the lack of convection and the dry air surrounding the wave it's another story matter of.. time too much dry air to hope for an invest right now
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8split.jpg

[gatorcane]

The dry air and shear should be of no surprise. The Cape Verde season starts in mid August for these reasons (and the fact the SSTs cannot adequately support tropical development in the MDR yet)

[JonathanBelles]

We need more suicide waves

[KWT]

Yeah thats true though its also fair to say that once they reach 50-60W then some waves do slip the net and develop, look at Bertha 1996 for example of an early wave that became a fairly powerful hurricane.
Shear is still pretty high across the Caribbean and gulf regions right now so thats going to have to change if this wave is to have even a chance in the future.

[Gustywind]

But i'm very optimistic given the numerous clouds on Africa

[gatorcane]

true there may be several nice-looking waves rolling off Africa now but will there be any for the Cape Verde season? It may turn out that the wave train we are currently seeing backs off for the heart of the season. We just don't know. SAL may linger deep into August also.Frankly I hope the wave train backs off

[KWT]

The thing is however Gatorcane theres no reason why the wave train would back off. Sure SAL could last longer but with precip above normal across the region where the ITCZ once it gets far enough north the problem should decrease I'd have thought. We don't know your right but I'm more willing to bet that these waves are suggesting a more active cape verde then a less active one to be honest.

[Gustywind]

The dry air and shear should be of no surprise. The Cape Verde season starts in mid August for these reasons (and the fact the SSTs cannot adequately support tropical development in the MDR yet)

Absolutely Gatorcane, that's really true, we should not forget that, matter of time but maybe given the trend of theses seductives and very decents waves perhaps we could see a CV season slighlty more at the beginning of August not in Mid August... whereas we're way early of that, but for my part i won't surprised because this season should bring surprises in store much earlier than climatologically predicted

[cycloneye]

[KWT]

Who knows Gustywind though I do note that la nina winter tend to have summer seasons with a higher chance of above normal Cape Verde activity so we shall have to see won't we!

I see that we've got some convection that has formed in a small area closer to what appears to be the circulation, it looks decent just lacking in any deep convection.

[Ivanhater]

Convection forming over the center of the well defined circulation (best so far this season IMO), certainly something to keep a close eye on, perhaps a bear watch?



I think this will become an invest in the near future.

[HUC]

Low shear values around 10 ,11 ° N,easterly winds up to 9thousand meters around Barbados,but dust ,and high shear the more north we go...So it's simple to saysif this decent wave stay in a low latitude,it could produce bad weather over the winward. But after that i don't give it any chance..
Nethertheless,we got prety decent waves to monitor...........

[KWT]

Yep I agree with you HUC, its still a nice early season cape Verde wave to watch if nothing else comes of it.

[Gustywind]

Low shear values around 10 ,11 ° N,easterly winds up to 9thousand meters around Barbados,but dust ,and high shear the more north we go...So it's simple to saysif this decent wave stay in a low latitude,it could produce bad weather over the winward. But after that i don't give it any chance..
Nethertheless,we got prety decent waves to monitor...........

Absolutely Huc, nice analysis and good post but i i have the feeling that days afters they're becoming very round and defined so suspicious. Moreover, as you well said it we got pretty decents waves to monitor, but ...for a Mid June breakfast it's very appetizing for my eyes and the convective potential so i'm glad to enjoy it, and let's enjoy it too!

[Gustywind]

Hey Huc this wave should travel very south (10°N and no more)because of the shear tendency showing an increasing winds trend little bit...
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

[KWT]

Yep gustywind shear is a little on the high side to the north of 10N, which is also obviously where the SAL is also dominating right now. As expected its only really the deep tropics that are close to favorable for waves at the moment though that will slowly change.

[Gustywind]

Yeah KWT you're right i note that too that's it ...in short

[cycloneye]

They are not bullish about it.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 172341
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE JUN 17 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Derek Ortt]

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

wave has a fairly large cyclonic envelope