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KWT
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#461 Postby KWT » Tue Jun 17, 2008 6:52 pm

I noticed that as well Derek its like its drawing energy up from the ITCZ just to the south.

cycloneye, nope they sure aren't still if it can develop any sustained convection then we may see the 20% development region come up on the TWO. (the yellow shading)
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#462 Postby Gustywind » Tue Jun 17, 2008 6:57 pm

000
AXNT20 KNHC 172346
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE JUN 17 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 15-20 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED INVERTED-V SIGNATURE.
ABUNDANT LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS APPARENT ALONG THE
AXIS BETWEEN 8N-14N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90
NM OF THE WAVE AXIS BETWEEN 8N-11N. 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY
SUPPORTS THE WAVE POSITION.
:wink:
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Re: Tropical Waves Between Lesser Antilles and West Africa

#463 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 17, 2008 7:00 pm

KWT,I am sure NHC is waiting for convection to persist and how the enviroment will be in the comming days especiallly the sal.
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Re: Tropical Waves Between Lesser Antilles and West Africa

#464 Postby cheezyWXguy » Tue Jun 17, 2008 7:04 pm

shear doesnt seem to be a problem presently, based on the fact that convection has initiated directly over the center and isnt being blown away...this might also imply that the SAL id loosening its grip on the wave as well. How do conditions look near the windwards/ leewards, east caribbean and west caribbean?
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Re: Tropical Waves Between Lesser Antilles and West Africa

#465 Postby tailgater » Tue Jun 17, 2008 7:19 pm

Wave looks to have 2 areas trying to close off, which should also hamper development.
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... al/177.jpg
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Derek Ortt

#466 Postby Derek Ortt » Tue Jun 17, 2008 7:20 pm

mentioned in the evening nwhhc atlantic outlook
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Re: Tropical Waves Between Lesser Antilles and West Africa

#467 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 17, 2008 7:28 pm

One word Derek "Interesting".
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Derek Ortt

#468 Postby Derek Ortt » Tue Jun 17, 2008 7:30 pm

there is not currently a lot of shear so the SAL impact is greatly reduced (dry air has a hard time causing weakening without high shear... see my M.S. Thesis chapter 3... pm me if you would like to have access to that)
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Re: Tropical Waves Between Lesser Antilles and West Africa

#469 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 17, 2008 7:58 pm

Thanks Derek for that and now I know something new that I didnt knew before.
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Re: Tropical Waves Between Lesser Antilles and West Africa

#470 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 17, 2008 8:09 pm

Convection increasing over the low.

Image
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#471 Postby Vortex » Tue Jun 17, 2008 8:28 pm

impressive by june standards!
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Re: Tropical Waves Between Lesser Antilles and West Africa

#472 Postby Nimbus » Tue Jun 17, 2008 8:31 pm

The wave crossed over the 27 degree SST isobar which the visible loop is now supplying.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html

I made a resolution not to get prematurely excited by pre invest activity this year but this area does look interesting. I will check the visible loop manana.
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Re: Tropical Waves Between Lesser Antilles and West Africa

#473 Postby srainhoutx » Tue Jun 17, 2008 8:33 pm

Have to agree with "interesting" for the middle of June.
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#474 Postby Squarethecircle » Tue Jun 17, 2008 8:44 pm

IMO, almost definitely not TD 2 (it can only survive so long), but this certainly makes "interesting" status.
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#475 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Tue Jun 17, 2008 9:29 pm

Very interesting. It will definitely be worth watching over the coming days.
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Re: Tropical Waves Between Lesser Antilles and West Africa

#476 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 17, 2008 9:35 pm

Image
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Re: Tropical Waves Between Lesser Antilles and West Africa

#477 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 17, 2008 10:19 pm

Image

The moistere envelop is very large.
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#478 Postby Gustywind » Tue Jun 17, 2008 10:21 pm

Gaining some convection Cycloneye and expanded system a little bit:eek: :wink: and as usual like Gustywind is saying my friends :DECENT WAVE :grrr: :cheesy:
Dont let your guard down things are getting very interresting waves are fascinating already in mid June , awesome! :bday:
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Re: Tropical Waves Between Lesser Antilles and West Africa

#479 Postby gatorcane » Tue Jun 17, 2008 10:26 pm

well I have to say this wave looks extremely impressive. Possible invest?
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#480 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Jun 17, 2008 10:32 pm

Image
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