Central Atlantic / Eastern Atlantic

[Sanibel]

It's right in the SST spot where cooler water and SAL will bite it.

This is interesting. I thought the warm Florida winter would breed a June Gulf storm.

My prediction: It should fade tomorrow as conditions fail to support it. It is June 18th after all.

[Fego]

Now we are talking...

[Fego]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 180516
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED JUN 18 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1250 MILES EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

--------------------------------------------------

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED JUN 18 2008
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W S OF 17N MOVING W 15-20 KT. A BROAD
LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS APPARENT ALONG THE AXIS
BETWEEN 8N-14N. A BAND OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG
12N37W TO 13N41W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO AHEAD OF THE WAVE
AXIS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 40W-44W. THE TPW PRODUCT FROM CIMSS
SHOWS A VERY GOOD SURGE OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.
850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY SUPPORTS THE WAVE POSITION. MOISTURE
FROM THIS TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES
ON THU.

[KWT]

Convection around the wave on the northern side apperars to still be fairly sparse at the moment however a fairly decent convective mass has developed just south of 10N I guess on the southern side of the wave. Look at the loops it seems like shear really bincreases around 55W.

I don't think its going to do anything as the set-up isn't great but if it can slip between say 14N and 20N into the Caribbean looks to be a little area of lower shear but we shall see what happens!

[HURAKAN]

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 181037
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED JUN 18 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W S OF 18N MOVING W 15-20 KT. A BROAD
MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS APPARENT JUST AHEAD OF THE WAVE
AXIS NEAR 12N44W. DURING THE NIGHT...CONVECTION HAS FLARE UP
NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF THE WAVE AXIS. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE NOTED FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN
40W-45W. THE TPW PRODUCT FROM CIMSS SHOWS A VERY GOOD SURGE OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY
ALSO SUPPORTS THE WAVE POSITION. MOISTURE FROM THIS TROPICAL
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES LATE THURSDAY.

[KWT]

Not hard to see the circulation on that image though convection is still fairly sparse. Saying that to the south of it yuou can see that large convective region.

[cycloneye]

The question is if they will go ahead and tag this as 92L sometime today,or they will wait for more consolidation of convection and be more organized.

[KWT]

Well we've seen them tag an invest for less then what we have currently before but who knows it depends probably on whether they think its worthwhile to do so. I do note that the convection on the southern side did appear to be extending NW over the past 12hrs towards the 10N line.

[Gustywind]

That's the 100000$ question Cycloneye, whereas this system better or not should bring more showers on the Leewards islands given our weather forecasts , maybe Thursday night, wait and see what pan's out.

[vaffie]

Judging by the way the convection is refiring around the middle over the last two hours and the fact that they've mentioned it in their TWO this morning, I expect they'll tag it as 92L today for sure.

[KWT]

I wouldn't be all that surprised if they do that either vaffie, its still lacking though in that deep convection that you normally see with developing systems maybe because some of the slightly more stable air to the north has worked its way into the circulation.

[Gustywind]

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N14W 4N24W 5N37W 8N46W 6N54W.
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE MOVING
OFF THE AFRICAN COAST COVERING THE AREA FROM 5N-9N E OF 17W TO
THE AFRICAN COAST. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY BE ASSOCIATED
WITH A NEW TROPICAL WAVE. HOWEVER...AWAITING FOR NEW DATA AND
VIS SAT IMAGERY TO HAVE MORE EVIDENCE.

Seems that another wave wants to exiting Africa, very interresting once again, the train of waves doesn't seems to be stopped....

[gatorcane]

Well NHC is telling us they see it but they don't expect any development.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 181130
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUN 18 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 20 MPH. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM SHOWS
SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS

[cycloneye]

I noticed that the circle is more bigger than at the 2 AM TWO graphic.

[Gustywind]

Tkanks Gatorcane maybe at an open wave status and more ...if the systems can maintains it selfs sufficient organization, whereas we could experience strongs showers and scattered tstorms if the next 48h definitely interessting system for only mid june...
San Juan NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR don't see apparently any developpement on this wave but tell us her presence in short...
000
AWCA82 TJSJ 180930
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
530 AM AST WED JUN 18 2008
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/data/JSJ/RWSVI
A TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE AREA TODAY BUT THE LOCAL
ISLANDS WILL HAVE FEW SHOWERS FROM IT. BEHIND THE WAVE A
SIGNIFICANT AREA OF DUST CAN BE SEEN AND THIS SHOULD BEGIN TO EFFECT THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER WAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH A LITTLE MORE SHOWER
ACTIVITY.

[KWT]

Well whats interesting about the latest TWO is the fact that they are seeing signs of more organisation and therefore that probably raises the chances of this being tagged an invest I suspect.

[Meso]

Apart from the shear here is the current SAL and Dry Air Situation

[KWT]

Yep looking like some of that SAL is getting wrapped up into the western side of that small circulation that appears to be present. Southern convective complex still looks decent and appears to be still edging NW.

[cycloneye]

I think saw one post by Derek about a thesis that if there is not strong shear but dry air and sal are present,systems can still develop as those dont penetrate the core of a low pressure without shear blowing.