WPAC: Ex-TY Fengshen 0806 (07W) 1,300 dead

[senorpepr]

Eventually forecast to become a typhoon. Looks like the Philippines may avoid another one.

[Chacor]

WTPN31 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/172251Z JUN 08//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 9.4N 132.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 9.4N 132.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 10.0N 131.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 10.7N 130.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 11.7N 129.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 12.9N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 15.5N 127.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 18.3N 128.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 21.0N 130.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 9.6N 132.6E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 07W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 155 NM
NORTHWEST OF PALAU, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND
CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 172251Z JUN 08 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 172300). MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 182100Z, 190300Z, 190900Z AND 191500Z.//

[KWT]

That track looks very similar to other early season typhoons that we've seen in 2008. Still I wouldn't be at all surprised if this became a typhoon, its got a good structure right now and I think steady development is looking likely, if it can consolidate the center a little more then it may undergo slightly faster development then progged but we shall see.

[cycloneye]

WDPN31 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W WARNING NR 01//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 07W HAS SLOWLY CONSOLIDATED OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY
INDICATE IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 181056Z SSMIS IMAGE DEPICTS
CURVED BANDING PRIMARILY OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH AN ELONG-
ATED LLCC. AN 180901Z QUIKSCAT IMAGE REVEALS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER
WITH MULTIPLE UNFLAGGED 25-KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN
QUADRANTS SUPPORTING THE UPGRADE TO TD STATUS. UPPER AIR DATA ALSO
SUPPORTED THE UPGRADE WITH OBSERVATIONS INDICATING 20-27 KNOTS IN
THE LOWER 1000 FEET WITHIN 120-240 NM OF THE CENTER.
B. TD 07W IS POSITIONED SOUTH OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WHICH IS PROVIDING THE WEST TO NORTHWESTWARD STEERING INFLUENCE.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM AS WELL AS
GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE LLCC REMAINS BROAD AND SOMEWHAT
DIFFICULT TO LOCATE BUT THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN POSITIONING
BASED ON THE RECENT MICROWAVE AND IMPROVED, FORMATIVE BANDING.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE LOWER END OF DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 25 TO 30 KNOTS AS WELL AS QUIKSCAT AND
UPPER AIR DATA IN THE AREA.
3. FORECAST REASONING
A. THIS IS THE FIRST WARNING FOR TD 07W.

B. TD 07W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH TAU 48. TD 07W
IS FORECAST TO TRACK INCREASINGLY POLEWARD AS THE NORTHERN RIDGE
WEAKENS AND THE RIDGE EAST OF THE SYSTEM BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEER-
ING INFLUENCE. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A REVERSE TROUGH
FORMATION, ORIENTED TOWARD THE NORTHEAST, WHICH WILL ALLOW THE
SYSTEM TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH BY TAU 96. THE MAJORITY OF THE
DYNAMIC MODELS SUPPORT THIS TRACK WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN
THE TIMING OF THE TURN NORTHWARD. NOGAPS APPEARS TO BE TURNING
THE SYSTEM TOO FAST THEREFORE THIS FORECAST IS BASED MORE ON
THE GFS, EGRR AND ECMWF MODELS. THE MODELS ARE EXPECTED TO COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS INITIALIZATION IMPROVES OVER THE NEXT
FEW CYCLES. TD 07W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH TAU 48
AND AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER RATE AFTER TAU 48, HOWEVER, THERE IS NOT
A LOT OF CERTAINTY DUE TO POOR MODEL INITIALIZATION AND LACK OF
RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

C. AS MENTIONED EARLIER, TD 07W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH-
EASTWARD AT AVERAGE SPEEDS UNDER A REVERSE TROUGH SCENARIO. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A 10-KNOT PER DAY RATE UNDER
A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
AND WARM SST.
FORECAST TEAM: DELTA//

[P.K.]

T2.5 from RSMC Tokyo so this will be named shortly. Their earlier forecast had it at TS strength within 6 hours so right on the forecast for that.

[KWT]

Interesting P.K it does look pretty good at the moment, also appears to be strengthening a little faster then the JTWC forecasts for it at the moment. Looks like it will eventually become a decent Typhoon.

[P.K.]

Well after saying that this is the advisory. Very rare for them to give a system a T2.5 and not upgrade.

WTPQ20 RJTD 181800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 181800UTC 09.5N 131.9E POOR
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 191800UTC 11.6N 129.9E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[HURAKAN]

Looking great!

[cycloneye]

WTPN31 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 07W WARNING NR 002
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 9.7N 131.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 9.7N 131.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 10.5N 130.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 11.6N 129.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 12.7N 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 14.0N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 16.8N 128.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 19.1N 130.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 21.6N 132.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 9.9N 131.6E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 07W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1000 NM
SOUTHEAST OF NAHA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THERE IS INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST TRACK DUE TO A MORE ROBUST OBJECTIVE AID PACKAGE.
HOWEVER, NOGAPS AND GFDN ARE EASTERN OUTLIERS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 190300Z, 190900Z, 191500Z AND 192100Z.
//

[HURAKAN]

Very nice looking storm.

[HURAKAN]

WWPN20 KNES 182143

A. 07W (NONAME)

B. 18/2030Z

C. 9.7N

D. 131.8E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS... STT RAPIDLY DEVELOPING. BANDING MEASURES 8/10 FOR DT OF
3.5. MET IS 2.5. PT IS 3.0. FT BASED ON PT.
SPAMPATA

[Chacor]

TCNA21 RJTD 190000
CCAA 19000 47644 NAMELESS 09096 11314 13344 230// 92506=

JMA at T3.0 now so should name it at the next bulletin.

[HURAKAN]

[Chacor]

330
WTPQ20 RJTD 190000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0806 FENGSHEN (0806) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190000UTC 09.6N 131.3E FAIR
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 200NM
FORECAST
24HF 200000UTC 11.8N 129.9E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 210000UTC 15.0N 129.6E 160NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 220000UTC 17.7N 129.5E 220NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =

35 kts at T3.0 is rare.

[HURAKAN]

[Chacor]

To whoever keeps changing the topic title - RP is the Republic of Philippines. I don't see why the title can't remain as is, saying PAGASA - Frank E of RP instead of having so many parenthesis "(0806/07W) (RP-Frank) E of Philippines".

[senorpepr]

[Chacor]

Up to 45 kts.

WTPQ20 RJTD 190600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0806 FENGSHEN (0806)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190600UTC 09.9N 130.1E FAIR
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 200NM
FORECAST
24HF 200600UTC 13.0N 129.3E 70NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 210600UTC 16.1N 128.7E 160NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 220600UTC 18.4N 129.0E 220NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =

[wyq614]

Fengshen is a name from China, means God of Winds

[HURAKAN]