Central Atlantic / Eastern Atlantic

[hial2]

Next wave and our "invest"!!


also a side note, just got a new job as a live in General Manager of a hotel in Intracoastal City, La., hoping we don't have anything major come my way. This hotel has just been bought and we are renovating it, it has not been open since Rita.

If we visit and stay at the hotel, do we get a discount if we mention that we're members of S2K??..You know,like AAA??.

[cycloneye]

To make it clear and avoid any confusion,NHC is doing a test for this system as I posted on page 27.They have it as 81L but it is not on the navy site because is only a test.So far there is No Official Invest.As soon there is one up on the Navy site,as always we do here,we will post a thread about the new invest at Active Storms Forum but so far there is anything yet if they make this system a invest at all.

[micktooth]

Do you think there will be a "Naked Swirl Warning" for the islands? Would the definition of a naked swirl be a "topless storm"?

[KWT]

Haha well micktooth its just left its clothes about 100 miles to its SW!

Yep the NHC are running tests on this system...I supposes it an invest but not a real invest if that makes sense!

[Gustywind]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html
Strong shear and doesn't seems to abate but increases
The next wave exiting Africa could be interresting if winds abate bit and dry air and Sal diminsh
http://www.weatherphotos.co.za/photos/world_big.jpg

[Meso]

As one can see the GFS doesn't do much with the system,but it also appears to like a wave that must be emerging off africa about now

[KWT]

That wave has got some decent convection along it though its no where near as impressive as the wave that is currently in the mid-Atlantic at the same time. Still if it can stay clear of the SAL then like the current Mid-Atlantic wave we are going to need to watch it if it shows any hints of forming a circulation like our present wave has done.

[Fego]

My untrained eyes see a split between the COC (yellow line) and the convection at the south-east (red line) IMHO. The peach line is the strong shear waiting for the TW.

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 181536
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1136 AM AST WED JUN 18 2008

A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS LATE
THIS MORNING...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...SHALLOW MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE WAVE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO
LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF
TODAYS TROPICAL WAVE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...A SIGNIFICANT DUST
EPISODE IS FOLLOWING AND THE AIR WILL BECOME NOTICEABLY HAZIER
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. WE EXPECT ANOTHER WAVE ON FRIDAY WITH
INCREASING WINDS EXTENDING INTO SATURDAY.

[tolakram]

I think it's dying quickly. The swirl has moved ahead of the convection and the remaining convection is throwing off outflow boundaries in the latest visible.

[cheezyWXguy]

I think it's dying quickly. The swirl has moved ahead of the convection and the remaining convection is throwing off outflow boundaries in the latest visible.

The swirl has been ahead of the convection for like 2 days...it pretty much looks the same as it did before. Now, personally, Im losing hope for this system because of the increasingly bad conditions ahead. However, I cant honestly say that I have seen any major structural change in the last day, neither positive nor negative. Its a naked swirl, with practically no chance of developing here, if at all.

[KWT]

I think you've summed up the situation this wave has to be honest cheezywxguy, its a nice little tease for the middle of the season when conditions improve and it has got a closed off circulation which is interesting however it is a totally naked swirl that isn't going to be able to do anything given conditions ahead of it. If this had been August I think we may have had a player with this one.

[cycloneye]

RIP!

ABNT20 KNHC 182343
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 182341
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W S OF 17N MOVING W 15-20 KT. A MID
LEVEL LOW IS AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 13N49W WITH THE CLASSIC
INVERTED-V SIGNATURE VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRING CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW
FROM 13N-14N BETWEEN 47W-49W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 10-13N BETWEEN 39W-47W.

Poof trend for sure dying too since this afternoon ....

[Derek Ortt]

a lot less bullish tonight than last night

[srainhoutx]

a lot less bullish tonight than last night

Let's see what the little vortex can do in the SW Caribbean. We shall see. And tomorrow is another model run.

[Meso]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

The cmc run seems to like the wave behind this one...Maybe deserves its own thread soon

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 190551
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU JUN 19 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. A BROAD
AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 48W-52W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS ALSO OBSERVED WITHIN 300 NM BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS
FROM 10N-14N. THE WAVE SHOWS UP VERY WELL ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER WHERE A GOOD SURGE OF MOISTURE IS NOTED.
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
LESSER ANTILLES LATE THU...AND SHOULD AFFECT THE UK/US VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON FRI.

[Gustywind]

Let's see if this tiny surviving sheared area of moderate convection could bring some moderate showers and a light thunderstorm activity ( as forecasted by our local weather forecast ) tonight to annihilate the moderate drought abbating on the island. Our local pro met seems very confident in their latest weather forecast, speaking about a noticeable degradation of the weatlhers, let's see what happens, but for sure i will enjoy some water, yesterday was very warm and moist!
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg
Entirely sheared this morning , and just a small area of moderate convection churning east of the east carib, hope this can bring something in terms of precipitable water...
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8split.jpg
Dry air always surronding the twave...
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html
Increasing shear trend, difficult trip ahead!
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html
Huge westerlies doting the area ahead the wave, 40 to kts awesome! I wonder how this tiny area can survive before crossing the island?!given my untrained eyes or my eyes are deceiving me!

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 191039
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUN 19 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W S OF 18N MOVING W 15-20 KT. A BROAD
AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. CONVECTION
HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS FROM 13N-15N. THE
WAVE SHOWS UP VERY WELL ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER WHERE A
GOOD SURGE OF MOISTURE IS NOTED. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES LATE THU...AND
SHOULD AFFECT THE UK/US VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON FRI.

Ahh, seems that convection is slighlty on the increase right now.... should it continues during the day to appreciate its salutaries effects maybe tonight We keep our fingers crossed