Central Atlantic / Eastern Atlantic

[DESTRUCTION5]

I think it still has decent "wave" structure this morning...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-vis.html

[Meso]

The little flare up in convection shows it wants to survive,but currently it's about to head into 50kt shear and the entire caribbean is highly unfavourable

[KWT]

Interesting little wave but as others have said its about to be smashed apart by some very high shear levels with he jet running right into the disturbance. Wave Axis will probably be the only thing that will survive the shear.

[tailgater]

Structure still looks decent you can see the mid level circ. left behind at @ 45W. IF it makes it through today, conditions get better( not good ) Axis is @ 55W.
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... al/169.jpg
Shear map
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF

[KWT]

It does ease off a little but in the end shear is still above 30kts the whole way through the Caribbean at the current latitude its at.

To be honest its like being run over by a lorry rather then a 100mph train, the end result is likely to be the same and the same will be the case for this wave I feel.

[Gustywind]

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg
Convection is increasing and shear too, find the trouble maybe the lastest hours before the strong shear!

[boca]

Gustywind it looks like you'll get some beneficial rain from this wave even though shear will probably rip its head off. The wave will be experiencing 50knot wind shear,then dropping to 40 knot as it moves west.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

[Gustywind]

Gustywind it looks like you'll get some beneficial rain from this wave even though shear will probably rip its head off.

Hi Boca how are you, glad to see you here , absolutely we hope that, but given the shear map i'm very doubtfull..whereas as you well said: but there will be sufficient rain crossing our island :"even though shear will probably rip its head off". It's a good news to escape from the severe drought abatting on the island, and we have "just"to wait and see , should it verifies too.

[boca]

We've been getting good beneficial rains the last two days here in S FL, but it seems to be missing Lake Okeechobee were we need it badly.

[Gustywind]

ok tkanks for the info Boca i'm learning something very far to my island hope that the same scenario too here in Guadeloupe:wink:

[stormchazer]

We've been getting good beneficial rains the last two days here in S FL, but it seems to be missing Lake Okeechobee were we need it badly.

Boca,

We ahve had pretty consistent rain here in Central/South Florida. It is not as beneficial, but indirectly the rain we recieve here feeds into the Kissimmee River down to Lake O'. We definately need more though!

Jara

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 191448
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1048 AM AST THU JUN 19 2008

PARTLY CLOUDY AND HAZY SKIES WERE SEEN ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND TERRITORIAL WATERS THIS MORNING AS AN AREA OF LIGHT AFRICAN
DUST SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC.
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE DETECTED MOVING INTO THE WATERS OF THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...BUT OTHERWISE...NO APPRECIABLE RAINFALL WAS
DETECTED BY NWS DOPPLER RADAR. MODERATE EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST
TRADE WINDS PREVAILED ACROSS THE AREA WATERS.

A VERY WEAK TROPICAL WAVE HAS PASSED SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN. SOME
VERY MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAILING THIS TROPICAL WAVE TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO MOVE INTO THE TERRITORY
THIS MORNING...AND IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...PRIMARILY IN
CLOUD BANDS DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEEWARD COASTS.

A BROAD ZONE OF SUSPENDED AFRICAN DUST EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHEAST
AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING...EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. THIS GENERALLY DRIER AIR WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL AREA
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...TO MAINTAIN THE GENERALLY HAZY AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS...WITH MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS. HOWEVER...A BRIEF BREAK
IN THIS STABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WHEN ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE RACING ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 25 MPH
MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THIS TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE IN AN INCREASE IN WINDS...AND A FEW PERIODS OF QUICKLY
PASSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

MARINERS CAN EXPECT MODERATE TRADE WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING TO
THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH THE NEXT TROPICAL
WAVE. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SEAS...AND SOME SQUALLY
WEATHER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN ON
FRIDAY.

$$

[cycloneye]

[Gustywind]

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg
Our prom mets are convinced that a fool weather should occur this night and especially tommorow morning with very moist grey overcast weather added to tstorms and showers over all the island, let's see what really happens because given the strong shear on the map, i'm just a little doubtfull but i'm not with modesty a pro met, i'm monitoring with untrained eyes

[Gustywind]

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
AXNT20 KNHC 191746
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W/55W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. A
BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE WAVE AXIS FROM 13N-16N. THE MIMIC-TPW PRODUCT SHOWS THE WAVE
VERY WELL WHERE A GOOD SURGE OF MOISTURE IS NOTED. MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LESSER
ANTILLES LATE THU INTO FRI...AND SHOULD AFFECT THE UK/US VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO LATE FRI.

[KWT]

woah you can't miss those outflow boundaries there are quite a few of them out there racing away ffrom where the convection has been.

[Gustywind]

woah you can't miss those outflow boundaries there are quite a few of them out there racing away ffrom where the convection has been.

Ok and what does it mean KWT?
A dying / going poof trend..., correct me if i'm wrong?!
Tkanks

[KWT]

Yep outflow boundaries are seen when a cell dies, so in this case as we can see a load of outflow boundaries any convection that was about seems to have gone poof.

[Gustywind]

Yep outflow boundaries are seen when a cell dies, so in this case as we can see a load of outflow boundaries any convection that was about seems to have gone poof.

Ok tkanks glad to learn that KWT
Whereas in spite of the strong shear doting the area near the east carib islands, convection seems on the increase, i check you the latest Meteo France sat Pic
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg
Sheared but fighting with strenght against Mr Olympic shear Games
Always westerlies with 40 kts of shear Hope that the rain come here but quickly .. before that the wave being sheared
I have showers at the moment . .....but nothing serious just passing showers, but you feel that the air is moist but no more.... for the moment. Let's see what happens tonight especially tommorow morning!

[Gustywind]

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg
Convection is spared everywhere, but hope for some rain here will it be sufficient to erase the moderate drought? wait and see
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html
Waouw always 40 kts of shear damnnn awesome!