Is SFL 1 major Cane away from a total realestate collapse?

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rjgator
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#21 Postby rjgator » Sun Jun 15, 2008 11:13 pm

I think that the 1926 Miami Cane and 1928 Palm Beach cane put SFLA into the great depression early due to the amount of devastation and the societies capability to rebuild at the time. I think (Don't quote me) that Miami created the first building code in the US after the 1926 Storm.

One thing to keep in mind with real estate prices is supply and demand. Any major hurricane impacting a major city would reduce the supply and create a instant demand for suitable housing "Key there is an immense inventory of unsold new homes and condos that are built to the new code that should survive a storm". Everyone will not leave in a mass exodus from one of the most beautiful climates in the world and people always need a place to live. South Florida's economy is in a crash largely due to the fact that the construction industry has been its main employer in the last 5 years. Any major disaster will turn that around. Of course business and insurances companies will suffer in the short term but they to will recover. In the short term such a disaster would be chaos but it could potentially have good long term effects. The cities like Miami that are built low will take time to recover but they will recover. Like they did after 1926.

However, any minor storm event that caused wilma type damage again would be catastrophic to the housing market. I guess in my opinion it is all or none.

I pray I will not have to find out and we can have a calm breeze and a real estate crash like it is.
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Re: Is SFL 1 major Cane away from a total realestate collapse?

#22 Postby gatorcane » Mon Jun 16, 2008 8:18 am

Jeanne and Frances impacted East Central Florida predominantly. South Florida metro areas (Palm Beach County, Broward, Miami-Dade) did not see major hurricane affects. Wilma was a CAT 2 (not a major) in metro South Florida.

Metro South Florida has not seen a major since Andrew of 1992 and that only affected southern Miami-Dade mostly.

I think if a major hits metro South Florida it will be very detrimental to real estate where home values will take a huge nose dive in an already struggling market. It makes you wonder if history is going to repeat itself where in 1920s the same thing happened here.
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Re: Is SFL 1 major Cane away from a total realestate collapse?

#23 Postby jinftl » Mon Jun 16, 2008 12:04 pm

Like others have mentioned, supply and demand would dictate a post-Cat 5 real estate market in South Florida...if the prices go low enough, there would be a flood of buyers....it would be the opportunity of a lifetime to purchase here. Alot of references have been made to the 1920's real estate collapse here...what people need to keep in mind is what followed after that....75+ years of boom.

The real estate market for a global vacation spot like Miami Beach is unique in some respects than more residential. suburban locations...even other coastal areas along the atlantic and gulf...what you have is a truly international real estate market...obviously something that wasn't the case in 1926. Alot of buyers are from europe or latin america and what they buy here is not a full-time residence...it is a second home to come to a few weeks each year.

The link below is to an article on the impact of foreign buyers in Miami...like it points out, when you have buyers paying cash for $1 million+ residences, there is some immunity to general market trends.

http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/10/26/business/home.php
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Re: Is SFL 1 major Cane away from a total realestate collapse?

#24 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Mon Jun 16, 2008 1:58 pm

How much industry does SFL outside of agriculture and tourism. Any big city will have some banking, services, hospitals, etc. But what is the core industry, and how susceptible is it to a big hurricane?


Of course, on the other hand, a big hurricane would mean lots of insurance money, plus federal aid flowing in, from people who didn't choose to live in what would seem a likely eventual disaster area but pay taxes anyway, people's whose homes weren't seriously damaged might see a bump in home values due to scarcity of liveable homes, and construction and trades workers would be near full employment during reconstruction.


Might take an economist and a big study to know for anything approaching certainty.
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Re: Is SFL 1 major Cane away from a total realestate collapse?

#25 Postby MGC » Tue Jun 17, 2008 8:43 pm

When Miami Beach is destroyed, all the cruise ship docks are destroyed, and what else the hurricane decides to take, it will be a while for the Miami area to get its economy rolling again. Katrina destroyed the Mississippi Gulf Coast's tourism industry for quite a while. Several members on this board moved away because of employment issues. The only industry that will exist is the one to rebuild....MGC
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Re: Is SFL 1 major Cane away from a total realestate collapse?

#26 Postby oyster_reef » Wed Jun 18, 2008 8:45 am

"The only industry that will exist is the one to rebuild....MGC"

and that would be a major industry.
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Re: Is SFL 1 major Cane away from a total realestate collapse?

#27 Postby gatorcane » Wed Jun 18, 2008 9:36 am

It won't even take a major. If another Wilma-like hurricane comes through (CAT 2), there will be profound effects. This area has just about finished recovering from Wilma which hit nearly 3 years ago. Insurance companies will leave the state and yet anothe rebuilding process will take place which will cause many people to rethink whether they want to live in an area so vulnerable to hurricanes.

Remember again, that the boom in population in South Florida coincided with a relatively quite 40 years with only a few hurricane impacts. But if some theories hold, South Florida will be back in cycle where a major hits every couple of years (similar to the 1920s-1940s)
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#28 Postby KWT » Wed Jun 18, 2008 9:41 am

Well just the sheer cost it would take to rebuild everything would be very high if we had another 1926 type hurricane hit but then there is the mental aspect of it, will people want to keep coming back an area that is being hit again and again by hurricanes every 3-4 years?
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#29 Postby Derek Ortt » Wed Jun 18, 2008 10:19 am

the estimated damage from a 1926 type hurricane hitting today is > 150 billion
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#30 Postby KWT » Wed Jun 18, 2008 10:26 am

Shocking Derek as bad as Katrina was even that is only about half of that figure. By the way how does that compare to say if a cat-2/3 hurricane managed to strike New York?
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#31 Postby Derek Ortt » Wed Jun 18, 2008 10:51 am

that would probably be far worse than a Miami impact. Also, would have massive loss of life as NYC cannot be evacuated and it is more surge prone than Mississippi due to the funnel
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Re:

#32 Postby jasons2k » Wed Jun 18, 2008 1:32 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:that would probably be far worse than a Miami impact. Also, would have massive loss of life as NYC cannot be evacuated and it is more surge prone than Mississippi due to the funnel


Yes, but most of NYC, including Manhattan, is well above sea level and the surge zone. Staten Island tops out at over 400ft up.

Most of the low-lying areas are in Jersey or near JFK airport and they are largely undeveloped wetlands.

Edited: Here is a map - actually it is a good chunk of real estate for a major:

http://home.nyc.gov/html/oem/downloads/ ... ish_06.pdf
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#33 Postby Derek Ortt » Wed Jun 18, 2008 1:40 pm

well... a large part would still be innundated.

Remember, the 1821 hurricane (which stayed inland from NC landfall until striking NYC... so it was most certainly not a major) causes the east and hudson Rivers to merge as far inland as Wall Street. Lower Manhatten and a large part of western Long Island are gone in a direct hit

Not to mention that the high rises are easy targets for the winds to take care of and those evacuating vertically are at risk
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#34 Postby KWT » Wed Jun 18, 2008 1:43 pm

Yep I suppose wind gusts in those high rises would be more like cat-4 strength (I'd guess 145-150mph range?) in a low end cat-3 (115mph).
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#35 Postby jasons2k » Wed Jun 18, 2008 1:56 pm

Yes, that would be awful. Even in the brush we had with Rita (which was a wide miss for us) the windows on the top floors of the tallest 2 or 3 towers in downtown Houston were blown-out.
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#36 Postby Derek Ortt » Wed Jun 18, 2008 7:42 pm

many of the Miami highrises were blown out and some in Lauderdale were totally gutted during Wilma


And our highrises do not compare at all with those of NYC
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Re: Is SFL 1 major Cane away from a total realestate collapse?

#37 Postby MGC » Wed Jun 18, 2008 9:59 pm

Wave action on top of the surge is what destroyed the MGC. Yes, the surge did pentrate well inland but most homes and businesses that were away from the velocity zone only flooded. The buildings in the velocity zone were completely destroyed except for a few steel reinforced concrete structures. So, anywhere along the impact area be it New York or Miami Beach will likely be destroyed by large battering waves. One thing I noticed with Katrina, the debris from destroyed structures formed a leeve. All along the coast a large continuous pile of debris was formed by the wave action. On one side of the debris pile total destruction, on the other just flooded homes.....MGC
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Re: Is SFL 1 major Cane away from a total realestate collapse?

#38 Postby Blown Away » Fri Jun 20, 2008 6:13 am

Interesting article on climate change and its effect on the Caribbean and SFL.
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/business/sf ... 1036.story
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Re: Is SFL 1 major Cane away from a total realestate collapse?

#39 Postby yzerfan » Fri Jun 20, 2008 5:08 pm

The southern coast of Long Island is also very low-lying, and a lot of people live in areas that would be trouble in even a cat 1 storm.

http://www.nassaucountyny.gov/agencies/ ... _zones.pdf
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Re:

#40 Postby Dionne » Sat Jun 21, 2008 9:10 am

Derek Ortt wrote:I think the surge in 1926 was only 10 feet at South beach. Most of the 300+ deaths were NOT from surge. They were from people trying to evacuate Miami Beach during the eye of the hurricane. They were trapped on the bridge when the back eyewall struck

That said, Miami Beach, unlike the NGC with Katrina, will have to deal with 140+ mph sustained winds in a cat 4 with gusts over 175. Those gusts are equivalent to EF4 tornadoes. Those are the violent Kansas type. Andrew and Charley (and even Ivan at Cayman) showed that re-enforced concrete may not hold up under those conditions



It all depends on how the concrete is reinforced. Vertical and horizontal rebar is strongest with containment rings. Slump of the concrete during the pour is a huge factor. The failed concrete structures on the coast during Katrina also had to deal with debris carried both in and out during the storm surge. That being said, note that the price of rebar has soared.....a 20' 1/2" rod of rebar is currently $10.....it was $2. Builders are now substituting long strand fiber mesh in the concrete. Talk about a well aimed shot in the foot!
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