Long Range Models

[Meso]

Not long range.. Infact only 12 hours out.. But the GFS must be on something... closing off a low in an area of nothing in the S.W Caribbean

[Derek Ortt]

The 12z GFS shows a system near the northern islands in 384 hours. It is most likely just another phantom storm that will disappear in future runs, but it is interesting none the less.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_384l.gif

Given that we are heading into July, I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss this as a phantom storm.

you can dismiss everything at T+384 as a phanton

[senorpepr]

Sometimes I wonder if we'd be better off with the GFS NOT being available beyond, say, 120 hours.

[Meso]

lol,when the long runs are consistent for over 5 or 6 runs I haven't seen many no-shows.I recall last year when it was consistant 300+ hours out it was correct about intensity and formation just not location..And it did the same this year with the first storm.All good watching for fun as long as no one gets hyped up over 1 run and stuff

[KWT]

Well to be fair to the GFS it did nail Dean, though it was a fairly obvious forecast and it should never be used for strength as its very poor but for track its not too bad and its got better at not developing phnaotm storms compared to a few years back though its still not all that amazing don't get me wrong.

[NDG]

I am surprised nobody has posted the 00z GFS, it takes the current mid Atlantic wave into a possible developing weak system in the western Caribbean in 180 hrs with a ridge on top of it, we will see since there is nothing else to watch.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I hate to say this, because I know that something 'could' pop out of the thin blue sky, with in like 6 hours in the tropics, but I would bet that the chances of seeing any other development in June is low. The shear is like any other June, it is high and unfavorable. Hell, normally we only get one cyclone per year anways. So we are normal at the end of the day.

The Gfs is interesting with the possible Western Caribbean system. We will have to see how the overall trend handle this, if this keeps up things could become more interesting. Still I would not trust one model run of anything, with out a strong trend. July normally has about one or so storms to, so maybe it will hold off until than to make that month avg.

[Vortex]

A very interesting long range from GFS. Note the african wave train in full effect later in the cycle..


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[cycloneye]

6/22/08 12z EURO

The only thing the EURO has in the next ten days is a system in the EPAC.

[NDG]

6/22/08 12z EURO

The only thing the EURO has in the next ten days is a system in the EPAC.

It also does show a weak low pressure developing in the BOC or NW Caribbean and heading into TX.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Sometimes I wonder if we'd be better off with the GFS NOT being available beyond, say, 120 hours.

Instead of cutting the resolution by half and running it to two weeks, the GFS should be run full resolution through 240 hours. Should have a similar requirement as far as computing power. And taking an already coarse resolution global model and cutting that resolution in half seems pointless.

[Ed Mahmoud]

6/22/08 12z EURO

The only thing the EURO has in the next ten days is a system in the EPAC.

It also does show a weak low pressure developing in the BOC or NW Caribbean and heading into TX.

An almost, not quite tropical depression, but it moves into Mexico South of the River.

I hope the Euro is 100% correct. Probably isn't, but deep Easterly flow and high relative humidities through 700 mb would favor beneficial rains.

[LarryWx]

Hell, normally we only get one cyclone per year anways. So we are normal at the end of the day.

July normally has about one or so storms to, so maybe it will hold off until than to make that month avg.

Actually, the avg. is even lower. It is less than one for each of June and July.

[KWT]

I'd guess the ECM weak low that moves into Texas would help to create some instablity and get some decent storms kicking off.

EPAC looks like where the ECM focuses most of the attention.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Hell, normally we only get one cyclone per year anways. So we are normal at the end of the day.

July normally has about one or so storms to, so maybe it will hold off until than to make that month avg.

Actually, the avg. is even lower. It is less than one for each of June and July.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastprofile.shtml

[LarryWx]

Hell, normally we only get one cyclone per year anways. So we are normal at the end of the day.

July normally has about one or so storms to, so maybe it will hold off until than to make that month avg.

Actually, the avg. is even lower. It is less than one for each of June and July.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastprofile.shtml

Thanks for the link. That chart/table is consistent with what I said. Storm #2 does not form until 8/6 on average.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

That is true for the long range Avg, but the last 10 years that have fallen within our active period have mostly had at least one cyclone per June and July. Also to note that we don't have good enough data to make a fair judgement of the last active period during the 20-50s period. Every year is different and special in its own little way.

It is very questionable with out a longer period of knowledge of the active and inactive cycles of the past. The same problem I have with global warming, that we do in fact have a much greater understanding of the history of the larger global cllimate. Also because we did not have satellite and as many observations to catch the "weak" tropical cyclones with at the time.

[Category 5]

Sometimes I wonder if we'd be better off with the GFS NOT being available beyond, say, 120 hours.

IMO, NO models should be, or at least available to the public.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Sometimes I wonder if we'd be better off with the GFS NOT being available beyond, say, 120 hours.

IMO, NO models should be, or at least available to the public.

We are a great country because people can see things that most other countries would not allow. I would rather ride out a cat5 hurricane, 5 feet above sea level, then see the models become locked away from us. That is all I'm going to say.


Just tie me to a tree first!

[Meso]

The GFS is moving a strong wave off Africa in 9-10 days and closes a low off rather quick but then loses it a lil,the EURO also shows an area of low pressure (though not closed) emerging off Africa in 216 hours.



At 348 hours the GFS still has the wave though open,quite strong with a clear indent in the ridge



384 Hours



While models may not be very accurate the trend here is showing stronger waves coming off Africa and also wanting to develop them a bit more.Carrying on with the indications of a busy Cape Verde's season