Watching For the Monsoon

[weatherlover427]

What I am wondering is since it is apparently going to stat very late, could it be a big monsoon or is it going to be wimpy?

[Arizwx]

I had the 'Javelina Tormenta' Pig coming on here 12-14 Jul...Kickin' and Screamin'
I still say get the apple ready..and stuff it right down its throat.Hell,the pit is hot!
I read an interesting ad finitum at the conclusion of the TUS AFD:
paraphrased:'Heights are outrageously hi for the Stacked Hi..over 6000.Dm We are already at the point of the 9th latest start of the Monsoon.It has to start...sometime.'

We need the Baja Upper Hi to keep migrating east..as it has,now Stacked over San Diego.Thermal Ridge is a monster.
Possible GOMEX influx IF the HI S of new Orleans would budge...possible
GOC surge for midlevel moisture and a mix down.Winds will shift presumeably when the Hi moves from San Diego to the 4 corners...
Hmmmmmm.That's a whole lotta 'IF'and 'Should'.Mexican Moisture seems to be headed SW toward Baja....this is ALL WRONG!
Talk about a collapsed Souffle.Someone slammed the oven door too dam hard.

[Aslkahuna]

Tucson AFD and I was amused that they were calling for H5 heights of 60,000 meters (6000 Dm) which indeed is outrageously high for the 500mb level (someone forgot to check the zeros or the unit in use since Dm is Dekameters or 10's of meters-the correct value should be 600 Dm-still a very high H5 height). The pattern certainly doesn't immediately support the monsoon and since the models are only in fair agreement through the 14 day period, there's no guarantee that it will proceed as progged. I agree that this could be a work down mode from mid level moisture (if and when it gets here) which works but tends to result in some really violent thunderstorms as we get major downbursts from the moisture evaporating as it falls-additionally, temperatures tend to stay warmer than normal in such situations. The best analog years for such a pattern are July 1987, July 1989, June 1990, June and July 1994, and July/August 1995.

I was looking at ENSO data, and it's a bit scary. July 1902 is the driest July on record at FHU with less than 1 inch of rain with July 1995 the second driest (and hottest) (we lucked out at the house in 1995 with one boomer at the end of the month). In both cases, we were in a post Nino pattern. But what is even scarier is that in 1924, the year of the driest monsoon ever, the SOI numbers were very close to timing and magnitude to what we saw this past Winter and currently-it's been 79 years since then (an interval also important to observers of Mars since 1924 was the closest approach of Mars to us in the 20th Century and this year is the closest of this Century and in nearly 60k years) so we could be due for another debacle exceeding that of last year.

Steve

[Arizwx]

I'll respond by mentioning that I disussed a 1989 type of analog some weeks ago.I dont see the depth or longevity of that Heat machine..however,similarities are present.
I also mentioned that the presumed death of the Nino and onset of the Non Nina were perhaps wishful if not premature.Even as GOA after GOA system came crashing down the Left Coast and some at UNREAL lo lats..I saw a MAJOR hold on of a winter pattern and a possibly doomed onset of a mature Mx Monsoonal Stage..which is still NOT apparent on WV Loops.
Moreover..temps aloft are modified to the point of the ridiculous.The GOA influence hung on thru May/Jun and then recurved to the N Cali coast and eventually Great Basin.Tornadoes in the W Plains hit a hi note.Too much ULL instabilty..too much Rocky Mtn downsloping...and that set us up for a DISASTER of a Fire season.PLUS...the STJ hung on to its lat over Mex that sheared the living crap off of any tops wanting to fire on the SW regions of the Sierra Madre all the way to the Frontera.Dews in Hermosillo have been lackluster...no EPAC activity to speak of ....finally tho some hope in the Carrib and GOMEX as the Easterlies arrived..abit late.
There is no reason to discount a 'Claudette' type of system to traverse the RioGrande and Big Bends...IF she has the steering winds available..otherwise...she stalls and rains out near Matamoros,Mx and croaks.
We need a major atmopheric change...I mean a substantial one,without which we are doomed.
Just My Humble Opinion.

[Aslkahuna]

My revised discussion and outlook on my homepage in the Special Topics Section. For those not willing to plow through the discussion, I'm going for July 16-22 for start. My analog years are 1987 and 1995. Both had hot Julys (with a frightful heat blast in July 1995) and both had windy days early in the month (up to 40mph in 1987) that fanned fires (the structural fire on Fort Huachuca in 1987 was the most damaging at a US Army Installation since WWII and I have video of pyrocu's over the Rincons and Chiricahuas in 1995) and they are the two latest starting monsoons in my records. In both cases, monsoon onset was of the trickle down variety and not low level advection which results in nasty storms but not that much rain. In 1987, we really didn't get into a mature monsoon until early August and in 1995 it took a GOM Tropical Storm (Gabrielle) to get us there on August 15th-in fact, the first 10 days of August saw weather like we are having now-albeit with some high basers around. In both instances, Spetember was also wet and in fact September 1995 had some incredibly severe weather. Whatever the case, those of us who called for a late starting monsoon early on (even as early as last Fall) have been proven right and now we have to see what we can salvage from this mess.

Steve

[Arizwx]

My revised discussion and outlook on my homepage in the Special Topics Section. For those not willing to plow through the discussion, I'm going for July 16-22 for start. My analog years are 1987 and 1995. Both had hot Julys (with a frightful heat blast in July 1995) and both had windy days early in the month (up to 40mph in 1987) that fanned fires (the structural fire on Fort Huachuca in 1987 was the most damaging at a US Army Installation since WWII and I have video of pyrocu's over the Rincons and Chiricahuas in 1995) and they are the two latest starting monsoons in my records. In both cases, monsoon onset was of the trickle down variety and not low level advection which results in nasty storms but not that much rain. In 1987, we really didn't get into a mature monsoon until early August and in 1995 it took a GOM Tropical Storm (Gabrielle) to get us there on August 15th-in fact, the first 10 days of August saw weather like we are having now-albeit with some high basers around. In both instances, Spetember was also wet and in fact September 1995 had some incredibly severe weather. Whatever the case, those of us who called for a late starting monsoon early on (even as early as last Fall) have been proven right and now we have to see what we can salvage from this mess.

Steve

Well,
The bad news is in.We will break records of all kinds..heat records starting tomorrow..111+ on Thurs is a bit on the conservative side.I would expect a 113F here before a supposed 'break' down to only 107 on Fri.
This heat blast is being wasted...nothing there to tap.Maybe some dry outflows and LTG from Chihauhua.Mx..
This is also getting ppl nervous about brown outs...we need some rain and now.

[weatherlover427]

I heard discussion about a 60,000 DM high ... that would produce temps of 900 deg F ... that won't happen. 6,000 DM is more than possible the next few days as the heat blast begins.

[Aslkahuna]

6000 Dm=60000m that was the point I was trying to make-if I put down 60000 Dm, that was a typo and I screwed up. In either case, neither is likely to transpire. The actual height value is 600 Dm.

Steve

[M2]

Greetings to all West of the Rio Grande inhabitants...and those East that
wonder what summers are like out here in the Outback - I mean the
Sahara, oops - the Sonoran Desert (aka AridZona).

It's Bloody Hot. It's Dry. And we're getting irritated en masse.
Nobody will be jumping up and down until some really nasty storms start
developing....sort of like you Eastern Guys when there's no SNOW during
winter back there....or when there's no Hurricanes...you get the picture

I'm still sticking with my one and only original date of Soonage Arrival:
July 15th. It may be earlier, it may be later, but I had to commit and that's it.
No hedging. Prove me wrong (early), no problemo. If it's later than that, I'll
move back to Albaturkey....they get rain/snow/wind - all sorts of stuff.

OK - let's see what we have....record-breaking temps beginning today
down in Steve's area: 105F in Douglass just about on the Mexian border.
Their previous record was 104F. Tomorrow we all break records from
Tucson down to Phoenix. Tell ya what, if you guys down there can move
the High a little further EAST, I'll bring all the Iced Tea and Lemons/Limes
& Ice that can be found up here. We can set up a table 1/2 way between
Sierra Vista and Phx - that would be about where....Picacho Peak or
vicinity...A good location for an outflow boundary....

[Aslkahuna]

if you reanalyze the bad 500mb analysis on the Upper High (drawing for the ABQ height) you will note two things-first the 500mb flow over Srn AZ is easterly and two the trajectory takes the flow from WY and wraps it into AZ and three, the air in that flow is indicated as drier than lizard lips on both the actual U/A data and the WV imagery. As the pressure drops in the Thermal Low over the low deserts we could trigger a Gulf Surge, but based upon the 850mb and 700 mb analyses it would come in without any mid level support which means high dewpoints in the morning but no clouds as the moisture will mix out with daytime heating. The WV moisture boundary is pretty far south for this time of year. However, having gone for 16-22 July now (pulling a Dr. Gray), I figure that I either have guaranteed a start this weekend or cursed it until after the 22nd.

Steve

[weatherlover427]

I just looked at the AFD out of Tucson and it looks like they are happy about the flow setting up in a favorable pattern by next week.

[azskyman]

Interesting this morning. Dew Point above 55 here in Phoenix....a noticable influx of moisture at least at daybreak. Low temp of 83 was symptomatic of the presence of moisture too. And we actually have some mid-high level clouds over the city!

[Colin]

Maybe you'll get some showers and storms to go with it! *keeping his fingers crossed*

[M2]

The moisture surge finally pushed in last night bigtime after midnight from
both the East in New Mexico and the from over the southern border down
from decaying MCSs in Old Mexico. Since 3am, dewpoints in Southern
Arizona have shot up to the 60s and 70s from Yuma all the way to the
New Mexican border and up through Phoenix. I posted the water vapor sat
in another topic but may as well add it here too :

[weatherlover427]

EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA 930 PM PDT MON JUL 14 2003

.SYNOPSIS...THE HOT...HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER COLORADO. INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK...A FEW OF WHICH MAY REACH THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS.

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE WEEK IS DETERMINING THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE CURRENTLY SURGING ACROSS SOUTHERN AZ. MONDAY AFTERNOON AN MCS FORMED OVER SE AZ...AND AT 04Z IT WAS OVER THE AZ/MX BORDER MOVING TOWARD YUMA. WINDS ALOFT WERE SE OVER AZ...SO SOME OF THIS MOISTURE HAS A CHANCE FOR MAKE IT INTO CA. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE TO TRIGGER ISOLATED MTN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE 00Z MESO-ETA PROJECTS INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE 400 TO 600 MB LEVEL ON TUESDAY BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z...WHICH IS TYPICALLY TOO HIGH FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. BUT WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS EXPECT TO SOAR INTO THE 90S IN THE MTNS...CANT RULE OUT ISOLATED CONVECTION. ZONES WERE UPDATED TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MTNS.

REST OF FORECAST LOOK GOOD WITH CHANCES OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THE REMNANTS OF "CLAUDETTE" HOLD TOGETHER AS IT ROLLS ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO SOUTHERN AZ. IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING WET WEATHER ALL THE WAY TO SOCAL THIS WEEKEND IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER.

[M2]

BUSTED!
*********************************************************

Well so much for my call of today, July 15 as the begining of the monsoon
here in Phoenix. It's still being stubborn & has now assumed the record of
the 5th latest monsoon on record. We DID get a sandstorm tonight but no
rain so it doesn't count. Guess we just have to wait until the pieces/parts of CLAUDETTE
get sucked into our monsoonal flow on Thursday-Friday. Then hopefully we
can join in the fun - aka 'Action' - that los compadres down in Sierra Vista &
Tucson are enjoying. .....Our big monsoon outing tonight was washing the car
windows with the squeegee so we could see....

[weatherlover427]

I am looking at that WV imagery and I see a nice surge moving into the SE deserts of Southern CA. Looks good for tomorrow.

[weatherlover427]

And as if that wasn't good enough ...

EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA 945 PM PDT TUE JUL 15 2003

.SYNOPSIS...INCREASING MONSOON FLOW WILL BRING SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SOME OF WHICH MAY REACH THE INLAND VALLEYS AND DESERTS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF CLAUDETTE APPROACH FROM THE EAST.

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING IN THE EVENING. CONVECTION ALSO MOVED FROM MEXICO ACROSS THE BORDER INTO THE SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS. PRECIP AMTS WERE LIGHT...AND THE BIGGEST THREAT WAS LIGHTNING STRIKES THAT COULD START A FIRE. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

ANOTHER MCS FORMED OVER AZ TODAY AND WAS HEADING WEST TOWARD SOCAL THIS EVENING. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ADVECT THIS MOISTURE INTO SOCAL WEDNESDAY...INCREASING THE MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN THE MTNS...BUT THE DESERTS AND INLAND VALLEYS COULD SEE A THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. ON THURSDAY THE SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT MORE MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.

BIGGEST THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN THE MODELS FORECAST AN EASTERLY WAVE (THE REMNANTS OF CLAUDETTE) TO TRACK ACROSS SOCAL. STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS...HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND A HOT JULY SUN...STRONG CONVECTION IS QUITE POSSIBLE.

ZONES WERE UPDATED TO FACTOR IN THESE VARIABLES WITH INCREASED RAIN CHANCES IN MOST ZONES FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

[M2]

Your welcome Josh. That decaying MCS which is juicing up
your atmosphere is compliments of the Arizona 5 as shown in the water
vapor pix above.

[weatherlover427]

Keep it comin . My bud MonsoonDude is goin Storm Chasin at the end of the week .