Long Range Models

[Frank2]

That might be true, but, there are so many variables that one never knows what might happen over two or three months...

Many seasons start out looking ominous, but, end up being fairly quiet - 1980 was a good example - Hurricane Allen was a VERY ominous start, but, the remainder of the season was fairly quiet...

[Category 5]

Sometimes I wonder if we'd be better off with the GFS NOT being available beyond, say, 120 hours.

IMO, NO models should be, or at least available to the public.

We are a great country because people can see things that most other countries would not allow. I would rather ride out a cat5 hurricane, 5 feet above sea level, then see the models become locked away from us. That is all I'm going to say.


Just tie me to a tree first!

I highly doubt that 5345743 hour models are worth dying for.

This has nothing to do with patriotism , 99.9% of people outside of scientists will never use these, and the other 0.01% are confused by them and actually think it means something is going to form. So all and all, the only thing it can really do is confuse the public.

[Cyclenall]

If you don't like the 384 hour model runs, don't look at them. How simple can it get? Hiding them from the public is just plain wrong in my view. The flow of information should become more and more free, not more restricted.

[Derek Ortt]

Sometimes I wonder if we'd be better off with the GFS NOT being available beyond, say, 120 hours.

IMO, NO models should be, or at least available to the public.

We are a great country because people can see things that most other countries would not allow. I would rather ride out a cat5 hurricane, 5 feet above sea level, then see the models become locked away from us. That is all I'm going to say.


Just tie me to a tree first!

Matt, please calm down!

If you sacrificing your desire to have extra information about something that has a mathematically infinitesimally small chance of coming true to avoid mass public confusion is necessary, you should be willing to make that sacrifice

[Cyclenall]

I don't go walking on the street hearing people talk about how the 240 hour of the latest GFS run predicted a hurricane heading towards the US. Most people have no idea what a model even is, mass public confusion is just simply not possible with this.

[NDG]

GFS continues to show possible weak development in the western Caribbean or BOC later on this weekend into early next, it builds a nice ridge in the western Caribbean.

[KWT]

That might be true, but, there are so many variables that one never knows what might happen over two or three months...

Many seasons start out looking ominous, but, end up being fairly quiet - 1980 was a good example - Hurricane Allen was a VERY ominous start, but, the remainder of the season was fairly quiet...

Well it weren't quiet to be honest, it still ended up having way above normal ACE values though granted the action stayed away from the states.

Anyway GFS still trying to develop a SW system as it always does it seems but whether or not anything happens is another matter, I dare say nothing is gonna happen though!

[Meso]

A C.V storm is now starting to show on more than 1 run... while its way to far out to get worried about (312 hours before it becomes a closed low) it is something at least to watch and see how consistant the GFS will be with the area.. both that area and the very strong tropical wave which emerged off africa in 200 hours which it also actually forms a closed low with for a while before opening it up to a rather vigorous wave again

[NDG]

18z GFS 168hrs, weak BOC development


UL ridge near, with UL divergence

H85 vorticity

[Eyewall]

It is possible we could see a storm form in the gulf remember our famous fourth of July storms.

[Category 5]

I'm not sure who this guy is but he explains some interesting points about these long range models.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oHg5SJYRHA0

[NDG]

00z GFS for next Monday morning:

Trending a little faster and closer to the Mexican coast.

[srainhoutx]

Next Tuesday morning



Pressures a bit lower and near Middle TX coast.

[Duddy]

Oh man I hope the GFS verifies!!! It will be the best to happen all summer (so far).

[Duddy]

I'm not sure who this guy is but he explains some interesting points about these long range models.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oHg5SJYRHA0

Darn you...

[SouthFloridawx]

I'm not sure who this guy is but he explains some interesting points about these long range models.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oHg5SJYRHA0

Darn you...

Only in a weather forum..

[Meso]

Only 5 days out.low in BOC and 2 low off Africa

[NDG]

So far the GFS remains the outlier in any BOC or NW Caribbean development by late weekend into early next week. If anything it has been trending further west in cyclogenesis to occur, closer to the Mexican coast, it will all depend on the orientation of the trough coming down the plains, I give it a better chance if the trough axis hangs around the western lower MS river valley instead of the east coast, otherwise it will move inland into MX before much development or it could occur on the pacific side.

[Frank2]

But, today's photo:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh.html

shows what only can be referred to as a:

Simply
Heavenly
Early (Season)
Atlantic
Rest (Period)

[boca]

But, today's photo:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh.html

shows what only can be referred to as a:

Simply
Heavenly
Early (Season)
Atlantic
Rest (Period)

Frank2 that's pretty good the way shear spelled out.