New Vortex Fix -- 1000 MB @ 0127z

[JetMaxx]

URNT12 KNHC 090127
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 09/0127Z
B. 15 DEG 02 MIN N
72 DEG 43 MIN W
C. NA
D. NA KT
E. DEG NM
F. 173 DEG 40 KT
G. 023 DEG 006 NM
H. EXTRAP 1000 MB
I. 24 C/ 406 M
J. 24 C/ 424 M
K. 23 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1234/1
O. 0.5/ 3 NM
P. AF968 0304A CLAUDETTE OB 08

MAX FL WIND 55 KT NW QUAD 0125Z. SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500FT.

RADAR PRESENTATION SLOWLY ALIGNING W/FL CNTR. SW COMPONENT STRONGER BUT STILL SMALL IN SCOPE.

[Stormsfury]

What this vortex message tells me is that 55 kt winds in the NW quad which isn't traditionally the strongest portion of the storm... with deep convection, go about 90% extrapolation for surface winds or roughly 48 kts at the surface ... furthermore, a 6 mb drop in pressure and a slightly larger SW component of the system still indicate that it's quite compact circulation ... and Claudette, based on the comment section, "RADAR PRESENTATION SLOWLY ALIGNING W/FL CNTR" - means the system isn't quite stacked but is slowly becoming stacked ... with the relative small core of Claudette, and the slow aligning of the storm ... Claudette could go through a period of a fairly rapid burst of strengthening ...

[mf_dolphin]

I don't like the sound of that one bit. People better keep an eye on this one all along the Gulf! Depending on the trough and track tis could end up anywhere along the GOM right now.

[wxman57]

Hang on there, that 90% extrapolation to the surface is for a flight level of 700mb (10,000ft). Using a typical vertical wind profile, the max wind in a storm is at about 1500 ft, quite a bit highre than at 10,000 ft. But low-level turbulence causes this to drop off a LOT more than 10%. It's closer to 30% reduction or more. You can view a typical vertical wind profile over at Pash's FTP folder on the NHC site. I think COMET02.ppt is the slide show with that particular image:

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/pub/users/pasch/[url]

He has a lot of neat talks in there, too.[/url]

[Rainband]

I don't like the sound of that one bit. People better keep an eye on this one all along the Gulf! Depending on the trough and track tis could end up anywhere along the GOM right now.

Marshall the models trending eastward concern me!! :o

[JetMaxx]

Any way you analyze it, Claudette is intensifying....flight level winds of 72 kt (83 mph), and a quite impressive presentation on the latest IR images.

Keep in mind, Claudette is still south of Hispanola...an area where tropical storms don't normally strengthen much -- I'll be very curious to see what occurs once Claudette clears Jamaica and is south of Grand Cayman....

I'm not forecasting a powerful hurricane, but I got this same feeling in my gut in 1988 as Gilbert deepened south of Haiti -- that we might witness a record breaker as soon as he cleared Jamaica...and we did.

I'm going to check and see what the most intense July Atlantic hurricane of record is...because with a compact storm (not unlike Camille in her formative stage), and all that warm bathwater ahead of her, Claudette might set a record.....there is that potential (of a cat 3 or 4 hurricane).

I know hurricane Audrey is the most intense storm of record for June (944 mb & 120 kts), and Allen is for August (899 mb & 165 kts), but am honestly not sure about July. There haven't been many major hurricanes in July; Audrey may actually have been more intense than any July hurricane of record...I know she was stronger at landfall than any landfalling U.S. hurricane in July (the 1916 Mississippi/ Alabama hurricane is strongest for July @ 948 mb & 110 kts).

Claudette is already a most fascinating storm...and likely will become even more intriguing in the next 24-48 hours.

PW

[wx247]

Yes... with winds of 65 mph it has strengthened rapidly indeed. I am surprised Grand Cayman Island is not under a Hurricane Watch presently.

[JetMaxx]

According to records at HRD (AOML), the most intense July hurricanes both had sustained winds estimated at 120 kts (140 mph), and occurred in 1909 (GOM) and 1926 (in the Bahamas). The lowest central pressure isn't listed for either -- the 1909 hurricane later struck the Texas Coast as a 958 mb/ 105 kt cat-3.

According to the same database, hurricane Audrey in June 1957 was even stronger...with sustained winds of 125 kt (145 mph) and a central pressure of 946 mb at landfall near Cameron, Louisiana (I have 944 mb listed in my weather book). The lowest central pressure I can find for a July hurricane in the Atlantic Basin is the 948 mb in the Mississippi/ Alabama cat-3 hurricane in July 1916.

MOST INTENSE ATLANTIC HURRICANE BY MONTH:

June:
Audrey (1957) - 125 kts

July:
unnamed hurricanes in 1909 & 1926 - 120 kt

August:
Allen and Camille - 165 kt

September:
Gilbert (1988) - 160 kt (The 1935 Labor Hurricane was LIKELY even stronger, based on current knowledge of hurricane Andrew's winds; both were very small "micro-monsters")

October:
Mitch (1998) - 155 kt

November:
W. Caribbean (1932) 915 mb and likely 140 kt winds. (Lenny in 1999 was 929 mb and 130 kt)


PW

[Colin]

Thanks for the info, Perry... Claudette IS intensifying...and I'm wondering when she will be upgraded to a 'cane... :o