Central Atlantic / Eastern Atlantic

[Gustywind]

Given the Meteo-France i knew that you're experienced a copious amont of water as your 2 inches waouw not so bad! Nice wave it's the second in less than 4 days andg the pretty convective in spite of the strong shear doting the area .

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 231024
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W/57W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT.
BROAD LOW/MID LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS NOTED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS
COVER A BROAD AREA FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 55W-63W INCLUDING THE
LESSER ANTILLES.

[Gustywind]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 230934
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
534 AM AST MON JUN 23 2008

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 500 MILES NORTHEAST
OF PUERTO RICO RETREATS TO THE NORTH DURING THE WEEK...BUT REFORMS
NEXT WEEKEND IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN BUILDS SLOWLY DURING THE WEEK CREATING NORTHERLY
FLOW OVER THE AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND. A WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE LOOKS
SET TO OCCUR ON SATURDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT
WEST DURING THE FIRST OF THE WEEK AND THEN WEAKEN. RIDGING WILL
EXTEND AND REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER FLORIDA THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES IN THE EQUATORIAL ATLANTIC.
MOISTURE EXPLODES AT MID LEVELS OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON TONIGHT
BUT DRYER AIR MOVES IN BY MID WEEK AND CONTINUES UNTIL A BRIEF
BRUSH WITH BETTER MOISTURE ON MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

AT LOW LEVELS...SEVERAL TROPICAL WAVES APPEAR ON THE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. ONE IS NEAR 61 DEGREES WEST AND MOVING 25 TO 30 KNOTS
TOWARD THE WEST. A SECOND VERY LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE IS NEAR 38
WEST...SOUTH OF 10 NORTH. A THIRD IS STILL GROWING OVER WESTERN
AFRICA. THE FIRST WAVE WILL COME OVER PUERTO RICO TODAY WITH
ACTIVE WEATHER INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS AND SQUALLS. THE SECOND WILL
PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY...WHILE THE THIRD IS FORECAST
TO TRAVEL ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA UNTIL IT
REACHES THE CARIBBEAN...WHEN IT WILL TURN NORTHWEST AND CROSS OVER
THE AREA ON MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK. STANDARD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO ON NON WAVE
PASSAGE DAYS...BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD. OTHERWISE THE
MONDAY WAVES WILL BRING THE BEST SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE AREA.


&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR AND INFRA-RED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW
A TROPICAL WAVE CROSSING INTO THE CARIBBEAN EARLY THIS MORNING
AND GFS 700 MB WINDS SHOW CLEAR CURVATURE IN THE WIND BARBS AS
WELL AS A V-FORMATION OF ENHANCED EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE
FOLLOWED BY A 10 TO 20 KNOT INCREASE IN THE WINDS. THIS WAVE WILL
CROSS INTO THE AREA IN GOOD TIME TO UTILIZE MAXIMUM HEATING IN
WESTERN PUERTO RICO TO GIVE GOOD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO THE
AREA...THEREFORE HAVE KEPT THE EMPHASIS ON HEAVY
RAINFALL...THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE FORECAST. MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE EVEN AFTER SUNSET IN PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS SO EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF. SATELLITE
IMAGES CONFIRM A LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDINESS BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS
THAT WILL SUPPORT PROLONGED SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE AREA. MOISTURE
WILL NOT TAPER OFF MUCH UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING...SO ACTIVE WEATHER
SHOULD CONTINUE IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
A BREAK DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WINDS IN THE LOWER LAYERS REMAIN
IN THE 20 TO 35 KNOT RANGE INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP SURFACE
WINDS STRONGER THAN USUAL. AFTER A LULL ON THURSDAY WINDS SLOWLY
INCREASE AGAIN AND A WIND SURGE FOLLOWS THE WAVE ON MONDAY OF NEXT
WEEK AS WELL. PRESENTLY IT IS FORECAST TO BE WEAKER THAN THE ONE ARRIVING
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS...AND GUSTY WINDS TO 30 KTS
CAN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS TIST...TISX...TNCM..AN..TKPK BRINGING
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD WEST TO AFFECT TJSJ...TJPS...AND TJBQ BY 16Z.
ISOLATED PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS IN THE WAVE WATCH APPROACH 10 FEET IN THE
CARIBBEAN...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. SEAS
ARE FORECAST TO REACH 9 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC. HAVE NOT VARIED FAR
FROM THIS VALUE CONSIDERING THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WINDS AT 850 AND
700 MB. WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE LOCAL
WATERS IN THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE LATER IN THE WEEK AND
SEAS WILL FOLLOW...BUT WILL LIKELY BE NO LESS THAN 4 TO 5 FEET
IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. SEAS BUILD EARLY NEXT WEEK TO AT LEAST
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 77 90 78 / 60 60 20 10
STT 85 77 89 78 / 60 50 20 20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...SCA...AMZ710-720-730-740.
VI...SCA...AMZ710-720-730.

&&

$$

07/12/


Have nice day everbody

[HURAKAN]

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 231456
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1100 AM AST MON JUN 23 2008

VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED THIS MORNING ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS. THE NWS DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS AND ACROSS ST THOMAS AND ST JOHN. THIS
ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. THE WINDS WERE MOSTLY
FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND THE LOCAL
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MIDDLE TO THE UPPER 80S.

A WIND SURGE IN THE EASTERLIES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA THIS
AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. BREEZY CONDITIONS...AND SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND SQUALLS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WAVE HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE INTO INTO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
ADJACENT WATERS THIS MORNING. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE
WEST AND THEN SPREAD ACROSS PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. SQUALLY... BREEZY...AND UNSETTLE WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ENTIRE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. STRONG TRADE
WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO INCREASING WINDS AND
SEAS.

$$

[KWT]

Thats not a bad looking wave I remember another wave like that which became 91L before hitting land. Whilst it is quite far south it has got some decent convection which has remained for a little while and the worst of the shear is off to the north of this wave so it may have to be watched just in case.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 231730
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A NEW TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN ADDED ALONG 34W S OF 10N. INITIAL
ESTIMATES HAVE THE WAVE MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. DAKAR UPPER AIR
DATA INDICATE THAT THE WAVE MOVED OFF THE AFRICAN COAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS WEST OF THE AXIS DUE TO
UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
3N-5N BETWEEN 33N-35N AND FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 36W-39W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W S OF 20N MOVING W AT 25-30 KT.
CONVECTION AROUND THIS HIGH-AMPLITUDE WAVE IS BEGINNING TO
AFFECT THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. UPPER-AIR DATA FROM
BARBADOS INDICATE THAT THE WAVE MOVED OVER THE ISLAND LATE
SUN/EARLY MON MORNING. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN BY THU. BROAD LOW/MID LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS
NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE COAST OF GUYANA FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN THE
AXIS AND 56W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 240533
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE JUN 24 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W S OF 12N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. NO
INDICATION OF THE TYPICAL INVERTED-V CURVATURE IN EITHER THE LOW
OR MID LEVELS. THE MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION DOES NOT SHOW ANY
INDICATION OF A SURGE IN MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS WAVE N
OF THE ITCZ BUT SOME TO THE SOUTH OF THE ITCZ.

THE PREVIOUS SHIFT INDICATED AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS
PREVIOUSLY ALONG 62W HAS BEEN RELOCATED AHEAD NEAR 71W BASED ON
UPPER AIR TIME SERIES DATA FROM SAN JUAN ONLY. THIS DATA
INDICATED A WELL-DEFINED WAVE PASSAGE PRIOR TO 00Z 23 JUNE BUT
HAD NO INDICATIONS OF THE WAVE PASSAGE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES...FOLLOWED BY A SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
A MAXIMUM IN THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS. IN FACT...THE SOUNDING IN SAN
JUAN YESTERDAY MORNING REVEALED A 35 KT PEAK WIND AROUND 850 MB
AND A STRONG LAYER OF 30+ KT WINDS BETWEEN 700 MB AND 850 MB.
HOWEVER...PW VALUES DID NOT INCREASE INITIALLY BUT INSTEAD DID
SO DURING THE LAST 12 TO 24 HOURS AT THE SAME TIME THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW VEERED SE.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 241051
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE JUN 24 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W S OF 11N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAK
INVERTED-V CURVATURE IN THE MID LEVELS. THE MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION
CONTINUES TO SHOW A SURGE IN MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS
WAVE SOUTH OF THE ITCZ.

[cycloneye]

Look at next waves convection while it lasts.

[gatorcane]

very impressive convection for this time of year but should get pulverized as it hits a wall of shear. Also SSTs are not quite favorable for development yet there.

[Gustywind]

very impressive convection for this time of year but should get pulverized as it hits a wall of shear. Also SSTs are not quite favorable for development yet there.

As usual Gatorcane DECENTS WAVES since mid april.... matter of time more conducive conditons

[Sanibel]

Cool water then poof.

[Meso]

I don't know about the water temperature being the problem,that will depend on where it moves off.. Any area under like 10N has warm SSTs which have been around 2 degrees warmer than average.While the SSTs are a bit colder to the North.Which may be why the GFS moves off that low in a few days,deepens it to a tropical depression within a matter of hours and then as it makes a more northerly turn it weakens it.

Cmc shows an area of lower pressure about to move off the coast around the same time as the GFS

The EURO is showing a wave moving off Africa around 160 hours and then developing a closed low with it later on.Not as aggressive as the GFS but
EURO
CMC
GFS

Going to be watching Africa in the coming days to see if the GFS holds any truth

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 250508
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0415 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W S OF 11N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WEAK
INVERTED-V CURVATURE IN THE MID LEVELS. THE MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION
CONTINUES TO SHOW A SURGE IN MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS
WAVE SOUTH OF THE ITCZ WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

THE UPPER RIDGE THAT DOMINATED THE TROPICS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS IS ALSO BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN WITH AND UPPER HIGH E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 12N55W COVERING THE AREA E OF 46W INTO THE CARIBBEAN AND A
SECOND UPPER HIGH OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 14N18W COVERING
THE E TROPICS E OF 30W. THE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF
THE ATLC BASIN FROM AFRICA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A
1029 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N54W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND A
FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY STABLE AIR ALSO DOMINATES THE ATLC E OF 60W
GIVING THE AREA FAIR WEATHER AGAIN TONIGHT. THE LAST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW A WIDE SWATH OF AFRICAN DUST
TRANSVERSING THE ATLC S OF 22N FROM AFRICA TO THE CARIBBEAN AND
A NARROWER SWATH EXTENDING N OF THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE W ATLC
FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 60W-70W.

$$
WALLACE

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 251045
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W S OF 9N MOVING W 15 KT. WEAK
INVERTED-V CURVATURE IN THE MID LEVELS. THE MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION
CONTINUES TO SHOW A SURGE IN MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS
WAVE SOUTH OF THE ITCZ WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

[KWT]

Well another interesting wave coming off Africa, fairly deep convection as has been the norm for the a little while but no doubt it will weaken as it heads west as there is still more stable air to the north and still shear further west.

[Meso]

Extremely Large Visible Image Shot Of Africa And Eastern Atlantic

Good looking wave exiting now, along with another good looking wave over Nigeria and then another wave taking shape over the Central African Republic (Possibly the one the GFS is showing developing)

[Gustywind]

Well another interesting wave coming off Africa, fairly deep convection as has been the norm for the a little while but no doubt it will weaken as it heads west as there is still more stable air to the north and still shear further west.

Humm yeah you're right:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... m8split.jp
Very stable air doting the area difficult trip ahead, let's see what happens within the next 72h ...

[Gustywind]

Extremely Large Visible Image Shot Of Africa And Eastern Atlantic

Good looking wave exiting now, along with another good looking wave over Nigeria and then another wave taking shape over the Central African Republic (Possibly the one the GFS is showing developing)

Tkans Meso, interresting, very builled waves, we should not count the high numbers of these twaves this season, it's awesome we're only in June and really if the conditions were not so "bad" (less conducives) i would bet for at least an invest near the CV islands for sure!