Potential in the GOM?

[dixiebreeze]

I think the GOM potential is revving up tonight

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/rb-l.jpg

[BreinLa]

Looks like lots of peeps are sure getting some rain..we are here in La . Lots of stuff on land

[dixiebreeze]

This is some sight to wake up to this morning!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/rb-l.jpg

[Nimbus]

When that tropical wave came through the Tampa bay area I saw low scud clouds for the first time this season. Large dome of upper level high pressure over the eastern gulf should push this area NW. Surface pressures were high last time I checked but they may be come down just off the coast of the Yucatan where the convection is converging. What is the lowest surface pressure buoy/ship report in the area?

[KWT]

Hmm thats interesting even if it is being sheared from the looks of things, there is a lot of convection on that tropical wave as has been the case for a large part of its journey across the Atlantic.

[dixiebreeze]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

[srainhoutx]

When that tropical wave came through the Tampa bay area I saw low scud clouds for the first time this season. Large dome of upper level high pressure over the eastern gulf should push this area NW. Surface pressures were high last time I checked but they may be come down just off the coast of the Yucatan where the convection is converging. What is the lowest surface pressure buoy/ship report in the area?

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055

Pressure a still pretty high, but have been falling for the last 12 hours from the NW Caribbean and W GOM. No low level circulation though. HPC hinted a couple of days ago that vorts would rotated around in the mid/upper levels and that shear might become less of a threat over time due to topograghy of Seirra Madre and W GOM. Morning AFD's along NW/W Gulf Coasts have increased the chances for rain the weekend as moisture from wave looks more likely to move in and an cool front expected to stall over TX/LA. We hall see.

[inda_iwall]

Maybe my prediction in the Bertha thread might come true after all
"BOC, June 28th"

[Frank2]

There's a weak ULL to the west of the wave that seems to be enhancing the convection - don't think it would be a BOC issue.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

A trough over southern MO is seen diving southward, and, that's likely to pull this moisture northward towards the Gulf coast states, which is a good thing for many, since it's still fairly dry in a number of areas...

As someone else said earlier, the pressures are fairly high across the Gulf...

[gatorcane]

The GOM convection is from a tropical wave flaring over very warm water. Nothing unusual. Upper-level winds are not favorable for development as they are blowing from the west at 30K+

The EPAC is in the process of really ramping up. There are some real invests there at this time and where the focus appears will be for the next week+

[Sanibel]

Something is trying to get together down there but conditions are too negative. This is more than shear flaring. Can't figure if the center is in BOC or off Florida.

[KWT]

Yeah the shear is probably helping to enhance the convection but the main cause of the convection is the tropical wave that came across from the Atlantic over the past couple of days.

[baygirl_1]

Looks like lots of peeps are sure getting some rain..we are here in La . Lots of stuff on land

We are, as well, in South Alabama. Yesterday's storms were quite loud and wet! According to the TV meteorologists and the local NWS forecast discussion, our rain chances are going to remain high through the weekend as the tropical wave moves west thru the Gulf and more instability moves in from the Midwest. Here's part of the local NWS forecast discussion that discusses the tropical wave, etc:

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE WEAK TROPICAL WAVE
CONTINUES WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF ON FRIDAY WITH DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA REFLECTED IN HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES NEAR TWO INCHES. AN UPPER JET MAX DIVES OUT OF THE WESTERN
CANADIAN PROVINCES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY
EVOLVING INTO A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN STATES...WITH A
SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY THEN EVOLVING
INTO A SLOW MOVING OCCLUDED SYSTEM OVER QUEBEC ON SUNDAY. WHILE A
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF MAINTAINS A LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW...A WEAKENING FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW SLOWLY
MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES...EVENTUALLY MOVING
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS STAYING
WITH GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS THROUGH SUNDAY FOR THE MAINLY
DAYTIME AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION...THEN CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY
AS THE WEAKENING FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

On a side note: Glad we cruised last week and not this week! I feel bad for the folks on the same cruise this week as things must be pretty stormy down in the southern Gulf and northwest Caribbean.

[bayoubebe]

We have plans to go to the beach this weekend in Gulf Shores/Pensacola area. Will this system have an effect there over the weekend?

[inda_iwall]

It rarely rains on the beach, the storms and rain will be mostly inland. I spent all weekend at Pcola Beach and the rain stayed pretty much inland and barely rain briefly, was a nice weekend. I would choose Pcola beach though as it is a little further from the mainland whcih keeps it further from the pop up storms. But having said that, if it is a tropical system, the opposite can be true, but this is more pop up storms. Plus Pcola beaches and water are a whole lot nicer than Gulf Shores.

[Ed Mahmoud]

The models don't seem impressed, but this may be a clue of where future tropical waves will want to go.

[Frank2]

With the exception of three thunderstorm clusters southwest of Tampa, mostly cirrus debris at this hour:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh2.html

[Sanibel]

Yucatan seems to have the node but there's no formation visible on visible.

[srainhoutx]

Would that low be tropical in nature?

The million dollar question!!!! It would not be starting at the surface if I am understanding this correctly, but would definitely have the chance to work to the surface and become warm core, especially if it interacts with incoming tropical waves. If I am way off base here, mets feel free to correct me.

Interesting...


http://adds.aviationweather.noaa.gov/sa ... g&itype=wv

[ROCK]

ULL in the NW GOM interacting with a tropical wave moving over the Yuc. Nothing at the surface, no model support , just a lot of moisture.....