Potential in the GOM?

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vbhoutex
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Re: Potential in the GOM?

#161 Postby vbhoutex » Thu Jun 26, 2008 11:01 pm

ROCK wrote:ULL in the NW GOM interacting with a tropical wave moving over the Yuc. Nothing at the surface, no model support , just a lot of moisture.....


So far, it is just that and I expect it to stay that way, even though that ULL has been sitting out there for a day or two. Fully expecting another round of storms in our area tomorrow too as the ULL pulls up even more moisture as the TW gets closer and closer.
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Re: Potential in the GOM?

#162 Postby Sanibel » Thu Jun 26, 2008 11:39 pm

That first one a week ago set the trend for the current Gulf. Poof. If this did have anything to it it looks like it is EPAC bound.
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Re: Potential in the GOM?

#163 Postby jasons2k » Fri Jun 27, 2008 8:20 am

From NWS Houston:

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?sit ... glossary=1

ISSUED 525 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008

AGAIN WILL IGNORE THE TROPICAL SPINUP OVER THE WESTERN GULF THAT
SOME MODELS ARE POINTING TO AS WIND SHEAR NOT CONDUCIVE AND FINER
MODEL DETAILS LOOK SUSPECT.
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lrak
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Re: Potential in the GOM?

#164 Postby lrak » Fri Jun 27, 2008 9:09 am

What about the mess off the coast of Belize. It appears to have some possibility and it might make it over to the BOC by tomorrow. Any potential (thinking about shear) that this area could spin up?

Arthur looking?

Karl
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Re: Potential in the GOM?

#165 Postby dixiebreeze » Fri Jun 27, 2008 10:55 am

The GOM looks rather suspect right now, Irak.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/rb-l.jpg
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Re: Potential in the GOM?

#166 Postby Jason_B » Fri Jun 27, 2008 11:01 am

http://www.weather.com/maps/maptype/sat ... mated.html

Nice little blow up in the southern Gulf this morning, all this moisture looks to be heading towards central Gulf coast.
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Re: Potential in the GOM?

#167 Postby srainhoutx » Fri Jun 27, 2008 11:06 am

Per KBRO and KCPR, 300mb Upper Trough centered about 250 ESE of BRO. Axis is supporting strong divergence to the E. Subsidence will hinder storm development in S TX today as the Tropical Wave continues to migrate westbound. Something to watch none the less.

http://adds.aviationweather.noaa.gov/sa ... e&itype=wv

http://adds.aviationweather.noaa.gov/sa ... e&itype=ir

http://adds.aviationweather.noaa.gov/sa ... &itype=vis
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Re: Potential in the GOM?

#168 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Fri Jun 27, 2008 11:39 am

I know it is the current rise is diurnal, and pressure is lower than a few days ago, but pressure isn't that low (1015 mb), and even if diurnal, pressure is rising at the nearest Gulf databuoy.

Image
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Re: Potential in the GOM?

#169 Postby lrak » Fri Jun 27, 2008 11:57 am

Image

big time Layman's question, as several previous posts indicated "High" pressure readings are all over the Gulf yet lots of rain, so why is it barometers have "fair" conditions around the 30.00 mark. The GOM is a perfect example that the picture above represents "Old School" thinking? Does it only work for "landlocked" areas?

Thanks,

Karl<---spell it backwards.


PS is there something spinning at 17N 94W just south of the city Minatitlan, Mexico?
Last edited by lrak on Fri Jun 27, 2008 12:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#170 Postby NDG » Fri Jun 27, 2008 12:10 pm

Weather happens in several layers of the atmosphere, just because surface pressures are around 1015mb it does not mean that it is not going to storm, if in the mid and upper levels are conducive to lift the moisture up to create storms (exp: ULL, UL divergence, etc) by surface heating or other forces that is all it takes to have a thunderstorm form if no cap is present. We look at surface pressures for any indications of tropical development, pressures high or not falling in any hurry is good sign that nothing is trying to develop tropical wise at the surface.
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Re: Potential in the GOM?

#171 Postby lrak » Fri Jun 27, 2008 12:13 pm

Oh I see NDG, I completely forgot about thermal lows out in the deserts. I wonder why they decided to put those indicators on Barometers :D
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Re: Potential in the GOM?

#172 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Fri Jun 27, 2008 12:19 pm

lrak- I saw a Readers Digest quiz a while back that implied the same thing, a rising barometer always means good weather.

More often than not it does, but for something like the rare South Texas ice storm, surface pressure is almost always higher than normal.


And in the tropics, pressure is relative anyway. IIRC, Hurricane Alicia as a tropical storm had fairly high pressure, because it was surrounded by higher pressure. Just checked Wiki, the disturbance that became Alicia had 1015 mb pressure when it was classified as a depression.


BUt, as a rule, from my limited amateur knowledge, low pressure in an area favors development, as it means air at the surface is coming in and converging.
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#173 Postby NDG » Fri Jun 27, 2008 12:19 pm

Yeah, you can go to the Sahara dessert and have barometer reading of 995mb because of the heat, but there is no moisture to lift thus no stormy weather.
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Re: Potential in the GOM?

#174 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Fri Jun 27, 2008 12:22 pm

lrak wrote:Oh I see NDG, I completely forgot about thermal lows out in the deserts. I wonder why they decided to put those indicators on Barometers :D



WEll, Joe Bastardi, when he hasn't been flogging the global warming horse (and I tend to agree with him on the issue, but he overdoes it) has been using a rule of thumb he learned in a Penn State meteo class for severe weather, pressure below 1008 mb and wet bulbs above 65ºF implied an enhanced risk of strong storms, and it has been working out pretty well as a simple rule of thumb.

I will say, good weather at pressures below 29" of Hg (982 mb) is awfully rare.
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Re: Potential in the GOM?

#175 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Fri Jun 27, 2008 12:25 pm

12Z GFS shows a tropical wave moving into Texas w/o development.


Also shows Bertha as a Cape Verde storm in a week, but that is for a different thread...
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Re: Potential in the GOM?

#176 Postby MGC » Fri Jun 27, 2008 1:23 pm

With all the outflow boundaries that are down there I'd say the chances are very limited. Should get some moisture into Texas though.....MGC
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Re: Potential in the GOM?

#177 Postby Sanibel » Fri Jun 27, 2008 2:08 pm

Persisting warm-topped wave trying to develop but conditions are too hostile.

Some spins by BOC but probably nothing.
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Re: Potential in the GOM?

#178 Postby vbhoutex » Fri Jun 27, 2008 2:51 pm

Looking at satellite I see nothing at all to indicate any type of spin. If you look at the axis of the wave, and that is barely discernible, you might see a "spin" on either side of/around the axis, but there is definitely nothing at the surface anywhere in the GOM that I see. Definitely plenty of divergence to the E of the axis as it movew W to WNW and as stated above to the West of the axis nothing. Hopefully it will continue to enhance our rain chances here in SE TX so we can get back closer to normal and stop having to water the lawn every few days to keep it from dying and burning up.
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Re: Potential in the GOM?

#179 Postby southerngale » Fri Jun 27, 2008 3:13 pm

vbhoutex wrote:Looking at satellite I see nothing at all to indicate any type of spin. If you look at the axis of the wave, and that is barely discernible, you might see a "spin" on either side of/around the axis, but there is definitely nothing at the surface anywhere in the GOM that I see. Definitely plenty of divergence to the E of the axis as it movew W to WNW and as stated above to the West of the axis nothing. Hopefully it will continue to enhance our rain chances here in SE TX so we can get back closer to normal and stop having to water the lawn every few days to keep it from dying and burning up.


Has all of the rain lately been missing your area? There's been so much of it... I figured most places had gotten plenty by now. I think there's many of us willing to share. Just ask. 8-)
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Re: Potential in the GOM?

#180 Postby vbhoutex » Fri Jun 27, 2008 3:19 pm

southerngale wrote:
vbhoutex wrote:Looking at satellite I see nothing at all to indicate any type of spin. If you look at the axis of the wave, and that is barely discernible, you might see a "spin" on either side of/around the axis, but there is definitely nothing at the surface anywhere in the GOM that I see. Definitely plenty of divergence to the E of the axis as it movew W to WNW and as stated above to the West of the axis nothing. Hopefully it will continue to enhance our rain chances here in SE TX so we can get back closer to normal and stop having to water the lawn every few days to keep it from dying and burning up.


Has all of the rain lately been missing your area? There's been so much of it... I figured most places had gotten plenty by now. I think there's many of us willing to share. Just ask. 8-)


We have had some rain but not enough to do a lot of good. Some areas have had up to 3" lately while areas like mine have had substantially less.
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