Central Atlantic / Eastern Atlantic

[KWT]

As it happens the shear doesn't look all that bad below 10N up till the Caribbean, its only once you get above 10N does the shear levels rapidly increase to a peak of 50-60kts which is pretty hefty I have to admit!

[xironman]

The GFS seemed to hint at less shear there in five days.

[gatorcane]

This wave is looking pretty impressive this morning with some slight mid-level rotation and abundance of moisture with low shear currently over the system (low shear because the screaming shear is just to its north and it is sliding south of it). It will be interesting to watch it as it heads west. We are getting closer to that time of year when we need to start watching areas in the western MDR and eastern Caribbean region..

[gatorcane]

There is actually quite a bit more rotation than I thought. Here is the visible loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

[Ed Mahmoud]

On the thread from pro-met AJC3 (sp?) about a small CW spinning vortex in the Northern Hemisphere, his super-mega sized visible satellite image also captures this feature well.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 271705
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W S OF 14N MOVING W AT 15-20 KT.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW-MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. LITTLE SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE...HOWEVER...SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 20W-26W.

A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN ADDED ALONG 36W S OF 12N. DAKAR UPPER
AIR DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE WAVE MOVED OFF THE AFRICAN COAST WED
BUT...DUE TO LACK OF OBSERVATIONS AND SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION...
WENT UNNOTICED UNTIL EARLY THIS MORNING. INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATES HAVE THE WAVE MOVING W 15-20 KT. A BROAD AREA OF
CYCLONIC TURNING IS EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...PARTICULARLY S OF 9N. MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS EAST OF THE AXIS TO 31W FROM 5N-8N. (Hey...here is our player of this morning)!

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W S OF 11N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT.
SFC OBSERVATIONS NEAR GEORGETOWN GUYANA SUGGEST THE WAVE PASSED
THE STATION NEAR 12Z TODAY. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 10N24W 6N35W 5N43W AND
INTO FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 5N53W. IN ADDITION TO CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF THE WEST AFRICAN COAST TO 21W FROM
9N-13N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM
N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 26W-31W.

[Ed Mahmoud]

12Z GFS predicts Bertha about this time next week...

Not weighing in pro or con...

[cycloneye]

A new wave:

A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN ADDED ALONG 36W S OF 12N. DAKAR UPPER
AIR DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE WAVE MOVED OFF THE AFRICAN COAST WED
BUT...DUE TO LACK OF OBSERVATIONS AND SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION...
WENT UNNOTICED UNTIL EARLY THIS MORNING. INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATES HAVE THE WAVE MOVING W 15-20 KT. A BROAD AREA OF
CYCLONIC TURNING IS EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...PARTICULARLY S OF 9N. MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
EAST OF THE AXIS TO 31W FROM 5N-8N.

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

[Gustywind]

A new wave:

A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN ADDED ALONG 36W S OF 12N. DAKAR UPPER
AIR DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE WAVE MOVED OFF THE AFRICAN COAST WED
BUT...DUE TO LACK OF OBSERVATIONS AND SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION...
WENT UNNOTICED UNTIL EARLY THIS MORNING. INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATES HAVE THE WAVE MOVING W 15-20 KT. A BROAD AREA OF
CYCLONIC TURNING IS EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...PARTICULARLY S OF 9N. MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
EAST OF THE AXIS TO 31W FROM 5N-8N.

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

i have already put it cycloneye but tkanks once again

000
AXNT20 KNHC 271705
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W S OF 14N MOVING W AT 15-20 KT.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW-MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. LITTLE SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE...HOWEVER...SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 20W-26W.

A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN ADDED ALONG 36W S OF 12N. DAKAR UPPER
AIR DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE WAVE MOVED OFF THE AFRICAN COAST WED
BUT...DUE TO LACK OF OBSERVATIONS AND SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION...
WENT UNNOTICED UNTIL EARLY THIS MORNING. INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATES HAVE THE WAVE MOVING W 15-20 KT. A BROAD AREA OF
CYCLONIC TURNING IS EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...PARTICULARLY S OF 9N. MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS EAST OF THE AXIS TO 31W FROM 5N-8N. (Hey...here is our player of this morning)!A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W S OF 11N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT.
SFC OBSERVATIONS NEAR GEORGETOWN GUYANA SUGGEST THE WAVE PASSED
THE STATION NEAR 12Z TODAY. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 10N24W 6N35W 5N43W AND
INTO FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 5N53W. IN ADDITION TO CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF THE WEST AFRICAN COAST TO 21W FROM
9N-13N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM
N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 26W-31W.

[Sanibel]

Seems to be an early CV pattern taking shape with well formed shapes for June. Maybe this is all our warm water got us.

[Gustywind]

That's what i was talking about Sanibel, it's my pure and subjective feel this year since Mid April always a twave mentionined in each weather forecast, and getting better and better, interresting pattern ahead...

[canegrl04]

Would be cool if Bertha formed from this on July 1st .Thats when I predicted Bertha would arrive

[cycloneye]

Wave at 36W:

[Cyclone1]

Looking halfway decent. Looking GREAT for this time of year.

[Gustywind]

Looking halfway decent. Looking GREAT for this time of year.

Absolutely Cyclone1 it's a little amazing to see how these waves are already growing steadily for this month in spite of the relative "hostile" conditions.
Good looking wave and nice enveloppe of moisture around her periphery...

http://cinmss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real ... 8split.jpg
SAL has diminished a bit but...Heyy seems that numerous white puffys clouds are waiting for a future CV bath ,waouw 1, 2,3,4 down the road...

[KWT]

Yep its not a bad looking wave at all for the time of year, got some cyclonic turning and has got some decent convection with it. Sort of a shame the conditions above 10N are really hostile for anything to get going.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 272345
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W S OF 14N MOVING W AT 20 KT.
THE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION THAT WAS ACCOMPANYING THE WAVE
EARLIER IS WANING SIGNIFICANTLY...BUT THERE REMAINS A REGION OF
MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION AROUND 25W BETWEEN 2N AND 4N.

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 37W S OF 12N IS MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. A
BROAD MID TO LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOTED ON INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND E
OF THE WAVE IN THE REGION WITHIN 11N34W TO 6N29W.

A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN ADDED ALONG 50W S OF 13N. THE LACK OF
DEEP CONVECTION WITH THIS WAVE HAS MADE IT DIFFICULT TO TRACK...
BUT THE WAVE WAS IDENTIFIED BASED ON AN EVIDENT LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CENTERED AROUND
9N50W IN ADDITION TO THE ASCAT PASS AROUND 1240Z THAT SHOWED A
DISTINCT TURNING IN THE WIND FIELD IN ADVANCE 0F THE WAVE. THE
FEATURE COULD BE TRACKED BACK ON THE HOVMOLLER DIAGRAM FROM
1145Z/25 THROUGH 1145Z THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION...THE CIMSS
MIMIC-TPW PRODUCT ALSO SHOWS A DISTINCT NORTHWARD SURGE IN
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WITH THIS WAVE. THE INITIAL ESTIMATE OF
THE FORWARD MOTION IS W AT 15 KT.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE APPEARS TO HAVE PASSED THROUGH TRINIDAD AND
TOBAGO THIS EVENING ACCORDING TO SFC OBS. THE WAVE LIES MAINLY
S OF 13 BETWEEN 61W AND 62W AND IS MOVING W AT 20 KT.
CONVECTION WITH THIS WAVE IS WIDELY SCATTERED AND LIES PRIMARILY
OFF THE NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA COAST BETWEEN CARACAS AND GRENADA.

Hey it's the day of the" added waves", 2 in a day not so bad in June

[HURAKAN]