SE TX/SW LA weather: Much cooler and WET after Tuesday

[vbhoutex]

Radar shows 100% chance of severe hail with that one coming in over us in the Galleria right now. Haven't seen it yet. Thankfully if it does happen my car is in parking garage, albeit, on the outer edge. Definitely looking to be quite a storm for this area, but no indication of anything sever yet, just a lot of noixe and a major downpour.

edit:1:03pm We are now under a severe tstorm warning till 1:30. Looks like there is going to be some minor street flooding in the area at a minimum. Still pouring, but not wind. Lots of lightning and no hail that I have seen yet.

[jasons2k]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1253 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 130 PM CDT

* AT 1247 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
CLUSTERS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE
HAIL AND WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 58 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED
ACROSS HOUSTON METRO...MOVING NORTH AT 20 TO 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT
LIMITED TO THE MEDICAL CENTER...SPLASHTOWN...RELIANT PARK...MINUTE
MAID PARK...HOOKS AIRPORT...HERMAN PARK...THE GALLERIA...
BUSH-INTERCONTINENTAL AIRPORT...WOODBRANCH...WEST UNIVERSITY
PLACE...THE WOODLANDS...SPRING VALLEY...SPRING...SOUTHSIDE PLACE...
SHENANDOAH...ROMAN FOREST...PORTER HEIGHTS...PINEY POINT VILLAGE...
PATTON VILLAGE...OAK RIDGE NORTH...KINGWOOD...HUNTERS CREEK
VILLAGE...HUMBLE...HEDWIG VILLAGE...BUNKER HILL VILLAGE...BELLAIRE
AND ALDINE.

STRONG WINDS MAY KNOCK DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES OR DAMAGE
BUILDINGS. TAKE COVER NOW!

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE COUNTY SHERIFF...LOCAL POLICE...
OR DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SAFETY AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

[Ed Mahmoud]

No hail big enough to notice yet looking down on parking garage on top of Galleria. And while the rain hasn't let up much, the sky to the South is lightening up.


Of course, it could have hailed like a big dog in River Oaks, or on I-610, and I wouldn't be able to see that.

I just see the parking garage below my South facing window.

[Yankeegirl]

Well just to let ya know, here on the west side the sun is still shining.. but i do hear a little thunder to my east... Send it this way!

[Yankeegirl]

Ok, EDIT... We are now getting some gusty winds and its all dark to the east of here... I can see a few bolts of lighting as well. Looks like it might scoot a little towards me... But I am hearing the sounds of pine cones hitting my roof... No rain yet...

[Yankeegirl]

and the rain is coming down... of course i leave for work at 230.... hope it stops by then!!

[srainhoutx]

and the rain is coming down... of course i leave for work at 230.... hope it stops by then!!

Just finished the yard work Yankeegirl. And Just in time. It's pouring here. Even managed to get some new plants in the ground.



SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TXC201-291-339-261900-
/O.NEW.KHGX.SV.W.0126.080626T1837Z-080626T1900Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
137 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
WESTERN LIBERTY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 200 PM CDT

* AT 131 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES
WEST OF DAYTON...MOVING NORTH AT 20 TO 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT
LIMITED TO CLEVELAND...TARKINGTON PRAIRIE AND KENEFICK.

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE COUNTY SHERIFF...LOCAL POLICE...
OR DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SAFETY AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

[Yankeegirl]

I hadnt gotten the boys out front to do any of the yard work yet, so i guess the yard mowing is going to have to wait till tomorrow... oh well.. I wont be home tomorrow, i have Red Sox/Astros tickets...

[southerngale]

It looks like the rainy pattern will be around for a while.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
323 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2008

.SHORT TERM...

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS THE CWA TODAY...WITH SOME VISUALLY IMPRESSIVE STORMS AND
EVEN A FUNNEL CLOUD VIEWED FROM THE NWS LAKE CHARLES OFFICE
EARLIER. SO FAR STORMS HAVE BEEN JUST UNDER SEVERE THRESHOLDS BUT
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION A FEW COULD BRIEFLY REACH SEVERE LEVELS
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNSET.

PERSISTENCE REMAINS THE BEST FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS AS AREA
REMAINS IN A WEAKNESS ALOFT BETWEEN THE SOUTHWEST CONUS UPPER
RIDGE AND THE BERMUDA HIGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WILL IGNORE
MOS GUIDANCE AS IT HAS BEEN RATHER HORRIBLE THIS WEEK AND
SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERDONE PRECIP CHANCES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THROUGH
SATURDAY SHOW PWATS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 TO 2
INCHES...WITH CONTINUED HIGH CAPE VALUES AND LOW CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES. TIME HEIGHT TRENDS ARE SUGGESTING SOME DRIER AIR
WILL MOVE INTO THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...BUT AT THE SAME TIME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE...KEEPING OUR PWATS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED. THUS WILL
CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS EACH AFTERNOON...LOWERING TO CHANCE IN
THE EVENINGS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT...AND KEEP HIGHS AND LOWS
NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.

.LONG TERM...

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGGED BY MODELS TO DEVELOP OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK...CONTINUING TO KEEP A WEAKNESS ALOFT ALONG THE GULF COAST.
THE TROUGH WILL ALSO HELP NUDGE A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WHICH
WILL LIKELY CAUSE CONVECTION TO FOCUS FURTHER TO OUR NORTH ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. STILL WILL SEE CHANCE POPS AREAWIDE. FRONT WILL WASH
OUT BY MIDWEEK...WITH THE GULF COAST REMAINING IN A WEAKNESS OR
WEAK TROUGH ALOFT INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GFS INDICATES PWATS MAY RISE
TO AROUND 2 INCHES AREAWIDE FROM MIDWEEK INTO THE JULY 4TH WEEKEND
AS EVEN DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. APPEARS
OUR WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS WE MOVE INTO THE MONTH OF JULY.

[srainhoutx]

For Houston Area as well. Very Detailed AFD from HGX this afternoon...



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
325 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2008

.DISCUSSION...
AMPED UP ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON PROVIDING NUISANCE PULSE-TYPE
BORDER-LINE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ROUGHLY A LINE FROM
ANGLETON TO HOUSTON METRO TO LAKE LIVINGSTON. APPROXIMATELY 60
PERCENT OF FA EXPERIENCING PRECIPITATION TODAY...WITH SOMEWHAT
ROBUST HOURLY RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS HOUSTON`S SOUTHEASTERN
SUBURB OF FRIENDSWOOD...WHERE HOURLY RATES ARE AROUND 1.5" AS
MODERATE TO STRONG RAIN TRAINS UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS
BRAZORIA COUNTY. THE INCREASED CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTY
CONVECTION HAS ALSO SIGNIFICANTLY EFFECTED THE AIR TEMPERATURE
AS TURNED OVER...RAIN- COOLED...AIR HAS LOWERED MID DAY
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S...QUITE THE CONTRAST TO
THE DRIER NW CWA WITH 19Z TEMPS OF AROUND 95F.

NOT TO SOUND TOO REPETITIVE...BUT THE NEXT FEW DAYS LOOK TO
REMAIN WET WITH THE ONLY VARIANCE COMING IN AREAL COVERAGE.
THUS...THIS PACKAGE`S POPS ARE BASED SOLELY ON THE AREAL COVERAGE
NUMBER WITH A FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE. DUE TO TODAY`S
ENHANCED CONVECTION...FEEL TOMORROW MAY BE A SLOWER DAY AS
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE REMAINS ON THE CHARGER FOR A BIT LONGER.
ALTHOUGH TOMORROW`S PRECIPITATIVE BEHAVIOR MAY BE A BIT
DELAYED...EXPECT MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS (WITH ISOLATED STORMS)
CLOSER TO THE COAST AND MAYBE FURTHER WEST OVER REGIONS NOT SO
RECENTLY WORKED OVER.

THE LAST DAYS OF JUNE ARE SHAPING UP TO BE INTERESTING. ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE BEGINNING TO GIVE THE EASTERN 5H TROF MORE
WEIGHT...NATURE OF ITS GRADUAL SW`ERN RETROGRESSION INTO EASTERN
TX. THE SFC~85H MESOSCALE REFLECTION WILL BE TO DRAG A LATE
WEEKEND BOUNDARY DOWN PAST THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND HANG IT UP
THROUGH TUESDAY. GFS/EURO SOLUTION PEG HEAVY QPF ALONG THIS
ELONGATED WIND SHIFT REGION FROM LATE SUNDAY WELL INTO TUESDAY.
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES ?...MAYBE...BUT THIS IS THE SECOND DAY
OF THIS SCENARIO PANNING OUT AND BELIEVE THIS IS REALISTIC ENOUGH
TO KEEP MODERATE CHANCE POPS OUT PAST DAY 5. TO ADD TO THIS WET
BIAS WOULD BE A MODELED TROPICAL AIR MASS SURGE OF NEAR 2.0" PWAT
AIR UNDER A DIFFULENT JET LEVEL. INCREASED RAIN AND COULD COVER
WILL MODERATE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY TO
AROUND NORMAL VALUES (OR AROUND 90 F) FOR EARLY JULY. 31

Looking very wet for awhile in SE TX/SW LA

[CajunMama]

Those scattered showers sure do blow up quickly. I was stuck inside walmart and at one point it sounded like hail on the roof. It finally let up enough so i could leave. True sign of a weather geek (according to frack) is i get home and forget unloading the groceries...i run to the computer to look at the radar!

Yank...i've got tickets to the astros/red sox saturday night game!

[PTrackerLA]

Another afternoon of heavy rains. I am enjoying this pattern of sun until about 1pm then *boom* the storms go bonkers. It's nice and cool out now with some light rain falling. Received around 1.5" in my area today. Looks like more hefty storms every day through the weekend and possibly beyond. We'll probably have had way too much rain by this time next week but that's the way things go around here!

[jasons2k]

Wow - the storm in southern Montgomery County was quite severe!!

Driving along Riley-Fuzzel, there were several large tree branches down, a full-grown pine tree snapped in half, a large ancient live oak split in half down the middle, and the road was littered with leaves & branches.

My sister said at her office on Sawdust, some large branches fell in the parking lot and damaged several cars and there were trees down in the area. She also heard some trees were down along 1960.

I wonder why none of this made the storm reports.

Anyway, I got .68" here at the house - almost an inch over the last 2 days.

[srainhoutx]

Looks like things will be firing up again today and throughout the weekend. Saturday and Sunday look very active with a boundry sagging down fron the N and seabreeze collision on those days...


HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
603 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-
227-235>238-281115-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GALVESTON BAY-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-
MADISON-MATAGORDA-MATAGORDA BAY-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-
TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-WHARTON-
603 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS
THE SEABREEZE MOVES INLAND LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
RAINFALL RATES OF AROUND 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE
STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SLOW MOVING AT LESS
THAN 10 MILES PER HOUR. ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GUSTY WINDS OF
20 TO 40 MPH MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS.

OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH FOUR...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS EACH DAY AS DAYTIME HEATING INTERACTS WITH A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3
INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM STORMS TO THE NORTH COULD INTERACT WITH THE SEABREEZE ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS FOCUS STRONGER STORMS WITH HEAVIER RAINS.
.DAYS FIVE THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THOUGH FEWER IN NUMBER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Impressive cu-towers visible from my South facing window in Galleria area.


For the first time in weeks, I am actually hoping it doesn't rain at the house. I have Comedy Defensive Driving tomorrow for a speeding ticket written by quota happy Wichita Falls PD (while I was pulled over, other motorcycle cops were nailing other motorists), and with the tropical wave arriving Sunday, my lawn could reach jungle proportions if I can't mow today.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Cell closest to Galleria has lost all its cumulus, just a mid or upper cloud deck, with precip falling from it SE of the Galleria, while to the South and South-Southeast, new cumulus towers have developed into thunderheads. I can see a thunderhead to the Southeast through virga falling from high cloud deck.

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
132 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008

LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-280100-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-
NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...ALEXANDRIA...MARKSVILLE...
DERIDDER...OAKDALE...VILLE PLATTE...OPELOUSAS...LAKE CHARLES...
JENNINGS...CROWLEY...LAFAYETTE...ST. MARTINVILLE...CAMERON...
ABBEVILLE...NEW IBERIA...MORGAN CITY...WOODVILLE...JASPER...
NEWTON...LUMBERTON...BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE
132 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008

...TROPICAL FUNNEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING...

AT 1:30 PM...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RECEIVED A REPORT OF A
FUNNEL CLOUD BETWEEN KAPLAN AND GUEYDAN IN VERMILION PARISH.

A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE TROPICAL AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA. MEANWHILE...THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILE OVER THE AREA IS LIGHT
AND VARIABLE. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF TROPICAL FUNNEL CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN COOLED
BOUNDARIES...KNOWN AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...AND THE SEABREEZE
COLLIDE.

THESE TROPICAL FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE USUALLY SHORT-LIVED AND DO NOT
REACH THE GROUND. IF THE FUNNEL CLOUD BECOMES MORE SEVERE AND
REACHES THE GROUND...MINOR DAMAGE MAY OCCUR...AND A TORNADO
WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED.

STAY TUNED FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND UPDATES ON THIS WEATHER
SITUATION.

[srainhoutx]

Looking very wet for the a while...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
341 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008

.DISCUSSION...
LETS BEGIN WITH CLIMATE....WE HEADED INTO MID TO LATE JUNE IN A
MODERATE (TO NEARLY SEVERE) AREAWIDE DROUGHT FOR THE FA`S SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN COUNTIES. IN BREAKING UP THE CWA INTO TWO HALVES
(NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN REGION) OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS...IT HAS
BEEN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THAT HAVE SUDDENLY REPLACED THE COASTAL
ZONES AS THE WELL BELOW-NORMAL RAINFALL REGION. PUTTING THINGS IN
PERSPECTIVE...KCLL RECEIVED NEARLY HALF OF IT`S BI-ANNUAL
RAINFALL OF SLIGHTLY OVER 16" IN JUST APRIL AND MAY AND...SINCE
JUNE 1ST...HAS ONLY MUSTERED 0.02". THE ISLAND...ON THE OTHER
HAND...HAS SEEN A REVERSAL OF FORTUNE IN JUST THESE PAST COUPLE OF
WEEKS. ALTHOUGH KGLS STILL IS 50% OF NORMAL RAINFALL...SCHOLES HAS
RECEIVED 0.11" MORE RAIN ACCUMULATION IN THE LAST TWO WEEKS THAN
IN THE ENTIRE MONTHS OF APRIL AND MAY! MANY CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF
MORNING SHOWERS TRANSFORMING INTO AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...HAVE BEEN
THE IMPETUS TO THIS NEAR SUDDEN SWING TO A WET PATTERN VERSUS AN
ON-GOING DROUGHT. TRUE...OUR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN REGIONS ARE
STILL UNDER AN ONGOING SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT PER THE LATEST
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR BUT...IF CURRENT FORECAST PHILOSOPHY PANS
OUT...THEN HOPES OF RETURNING TO A NEAR NORMAL PATTERN ARE ON THE
HORIZON. TWO WAYS OF LOOKING AT IT...EITHER EVERYONE ELSE IS CATCHING
UP TO THESE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN DROUGHT CONDITIONS `OR` WE MAY BE
COMING OUT OF THIS ABNORMALLY DRY SPRING ALTOGETHER JUST A FEW
DAYS PAST THE SUMMER SOLSTICE.

FORECAST CALLS FOR A WET WEEKEND AND A WET COMMENCEMENT TO JULY.
UPPER LOW BEGINNING TO SHEAR OUT OVER CENTRAL GULF THIS AFTERNOON
AND...BECAUSE WE WERE ON THE DRY SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THIS
FEATURE...WE EXPERIENCED A (WHAT IS BECOMING RARE) LULL DAY
CONVECTION-WISE. TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME ADVECTING ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS LOW WILL RIDE ACROSS THE FA OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS AND ULTIMATELY INCREASE MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ON
TOP OF ALREADY HIGH LL PWAT VALUES IN THE 1.6" - 1.8" RANGE. IN
THE SYNOPTIC...AN AMPLIFYING 5H RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
WILL AID IN RETROGRADING A BROAD MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TROF.

W/V IMAGERY ALREADY DEPICTING A LARGE WAVE PATTERN OF A CURRENT
UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADIAN PLAINS DIGGING DOWN OVER
FLATTENED DESERT SW RIDGE....WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE/EURO SOLUTION
ALSO IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS UNFOLDING OF EVENTS. SFC-MID LEVEL
SHEAR AXIS WILL SLIDE DOWN ALONG BACKSIDE OF THIS TROF AND PROVIDE
THE FOCUS FOR POSSIBLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION IN THE SUNDAY-MONDAY TIME
FRAME...FROM NORTHERN TEXAS DOWN TO THE SE TX COAST. UNSURE OF
EVENT TIMING...BUT ANY OUTFLOW THAT SPITS OUT FROM ANY NORTHERN
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL BE JUST BE ANOTHER AREA OF LL FOCUS FOR
WHICH FUTURE ACTIVITY TO RE-FORM UPON. MODELED MOISTURE POOLING
ALONG THIS NEAR-STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS VERY IMPRESSIVE THROUGH
MONDAY...A PERSISTENT POOLING OF PLUS-2 INCHES. THERE IS ALSO A
HINT OF A SOUTHERN INVERTED TROF OVER COASTAL MEXICO THAT MAY SET-
UP IN A FAVORABLE WESTERLY POSITION TO PROVIDE A SURGE OF SOUTHERN
GULF MOISTURE INTO A POSSIBLE MCS/LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM? ALL
AND ALL...POPS OVR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE HIGH IN
CONFIDENCE OF OCCURENCE...MODERATE IN TIMING...AND MARGINAL IN AREAL
COVERAGE DUE TO A MORE MESOSCALE-DRIVEN ENVIRONMENT. THE MAIN
THREAT FROM THIS ENHANCED CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL
OVER A LONG DURATION THAT IS BEST HANDLED IN THE DAILY SATHGXHWO.

MORE OVERCAST SKIES AND A HIGHER FREQUENCY OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
KEEP MAXIMUM TEMPS IN CHECK OVER THE NEXT 5 TO 6 DAYS...IN THE
LOWER 90S...WITH VERY MILD AND WARM MORNINGS IN THE AVERAGE MIDDLE
70S. NO SIGNIFICANTLY DRY PERIOD IN THIS PACKAGE AS...EVEN IF WESTERN
RIDGING TAKES MORE OF AN EASTERLY HOLD...THEN WE WILL BE BACK INTO
A MORE TRADITIONAL SUMMER BREEZE PATTERN. 31

[southerngale]

North Beaumont is getting hammered right now. Looking at a zoomed in radar, heavy rain is just a few miles from me. Lots of thunder and lightning though. I'm showing my house at 3pm... hopefully the rain will hold off until after that.

Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
113 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2008

TXZ181-182-201-215-216-281915-
NEWTON TX-JASPER TX-HARDIN TX-JEFFERSON TX-ORANGE TX-
113 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR NEWTON...JASPER...HARDIN...JEFFERSON
AND ORANGE COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM CDT...

AT 108 PM CDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS INDICATED BY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7
MILES NORTH OF DEWEYVILLE TO 2 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHINA...OR ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES NORTH OF DEWEYVILLE TO 7 MILES EAST OF
NOME...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
BEVIL OAKS BY 130 PM CDT
LUMBERTON BY 155 PM CDT
SILSBEE BY 210 PM CDT
EVADALE AND BUNA BY 215 PM CDT

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY THOSE IN POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS. RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY AND
BE PREPARED TO TAKE THE PROPER ACTIONS SHOULD A WARNING BE ISSUED.

$$

LANDRENEAU

[Yankeegirl]

Well quit hogging all the rain SG! No rain here yet, but we do have a 60% chance at it....