Tropical Depression Boris in EPAC

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Re: Tropical Storm Boris in EPAC

#121 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 28, 2008 1:57 pm

WHXX01 KMIA 281855
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1855 UTC SAT JUN 28 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE BORIS (EP022008) 20080628 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080628 1800 080629 0600 080629 1800 080630 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.7N 113.4W 15.3N 114.9W 15.5N 116.7W 15.7N 118.8W
BAMD 14.7N 113.4W 15.0N 115.3W 15.3N 117.6W 15.7N 120.2W
BAMM 14.7N 113.4W 15.2N 115.4W 15.4N 117.8W 15.5N 120.5W
LBAR 14.7N 113.4W 15.2N 115.4W 15.6N 118.0W 16.2N 120.8W
SHIP 45KTS 42KTS 37KTS 33KTS
DSHP 45KTS 42KTS 37KTS 33KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080630 1800 080701 1800 080702 1800 080703 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.9N 121.2W 16.0N 126.8W 16.3N 132.2W 17.3N 137.8W
BAMD 16.1N 123.0W 17.2N 128.3W 18.9N 132.8W 20.7N 135.7W
BAMM 15.7N 123.7W 16.3N 129.6W 17.4N 135.0W 18.8N 139.3W
LBAR 16.9N 123.7W 19.1N 129.1W 22.3N 132.3W 25.7N 131.9W
SHIP 33KTS 31KTS 28KTS 27KTS
DSHP 33KTS 31KTS 28KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.7N LONCUR = 113.4W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 14.1N LONM12 = 111.5W DIRM12 = 294DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 13.0N LONM24 = 109.5W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 90NM RD34SW = 90NM RD34NW = 60NM

$$
NNNN

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#122 Postby KWT » Sat Jun 28, 2008 2:18 pm

Yep looks like Boris is in a fairly steady state right now, convection on the southern side is starting to decrease a little in coverage so it may start to weaken a little soon down to 40kts if this trend keeps on occuring.
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#123 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Jun 28, 2008 2:53 pm

28/1800 UTC 14.7N 113.4W T3.5/3.5 BORIS -- East Pacific Ocean
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#124 Postby KWT » Sat Jun 28, 2008 2:55 pm

Yet despite what I've just said estimates are still 3.5. Interesting to see the NHC has been holding at 45kts depsite the estimates supporting something higher then that.
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#125 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Jun 28, 2008 3:36 pm

597
WTPZ42 KNHC 282031
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022008
200 PM PDT SAT JUN 28 2008

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE OR MOTION OF BORIS
DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS PARTLY
EXPOSED ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CONVECTION DUE TO 20 KT OF
NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/10...
LITTLE CHANGE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS 45 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB AND SAB.

FOR THE TRACK FORECAST...THE LARGE SCALE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD WESTWARD NORTH OF
BORIS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE
GENERALLY WESTWARD. HOWEVER...SOME SPREAD REMAINS IN THE
ASSOCIATED TRACK FORECASTS DUE TO POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH
TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA...A POTENTIAL CYCLONE FORMING EAST OF
BORIS...OR...IN THE CASE OF THE GFS...LIKELY SPURIOUS CYCLONES IN
THE MODEL ALONG THE ITCZ. CURRENTLY...THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS OF
BORIS ACTUALLY INTERACTING WITH CRISTINA OR THE EASTERN
DISTURBANCE. THEREFORE... THE FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR A STEADY
WESTWARD MOTION SOUTH OF THE RIDGE. THE NEW TRACK IS SLIGHTLY
FASTER THAN AND A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS MODELS.

THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR TO INCREASE FURTHER DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE GFS AND NOGAPS FORECAST
DECREASING SHEAR...WHILE THE UKMET...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN MODELS
CONTINUE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW OVER BORIS. EVEN IF
THE SHEAR DECREASES...BORIS SHOULD APPROACH COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AFTER 48 HR. BASED ON THIS...BORIS IS FORECAST
TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND BECOME A
NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW BY 120 HOURS. THE NEW INTENSITY
FORECAST IS AGAIN IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFDL...HWRF...AND GFDN ALL CALL FOR BORIS
TO STRENGTHEN TO 60 KT OR GREATER...WHICH LOOKS UNLIKELY AT THE
MOMENT.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/2100Z 14.8N 113.9W 45 KT
12HR VT 29/0600Z 14.9N 115.0W 45 KT
24HR VT 29/1800Z 15.0N 116.8W 40 KT
36HR VT 30/0600Z 15.1N 118.4W 40 KT
48HR VT 30/1800Z 15.3N 120.3W 35 KT
72HR VT 01/1800Z 15.5N 123.5W 30 KT
96HR VT 02/1800Z 15.5N 127.0W 30 KT
120HR VT 03/1800Z 15.5N 129.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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#126 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Jun 28, 2008 3:37 pm

893
WTPZ32 KNHC 282030
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BORIS ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022008
200 PM PDT SAT JUN 28 2008

...BORIS CONTINUING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD...

AT 200 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BORIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.9 WEST OR ABOUT 620
MILES...995 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.

BORIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A
GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...
AND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 200 PM PDT POSITION...14.8 N...113.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Re: Tropical Storm Boris in EPAC

#127 Postby Cyclenall » Sat Jun 28, 2008 3:41 pm

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Second % chance of Tropical Storm Boris becoming a:

Tropical Depression: 100%
Tropical Storm: 100%
Hurricane: 10% (Quite low now)
Category 2 Hurricane: 3%
"" 3 "": 1%
"" 4 "": 0.1%
"" 5 "": 0.001%

Second % chance of Tropical Storm Boris strengthening:

Very slowly/None: 75%
Slowly: 10%
Moderately: 5%
Quickly: 5%
Rapidly: 3%
Very Rapidly: 1.9999%
Record Breaking Rapid: 0.0001%

This is not from any program or scientific formula, this is just my thoughts alone on the %'s.

It's been around 24 hours since I last did this, and it was mainly a bust since the RI never occurred and was "cancelled".
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#128 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Jun 28, 2008 3:47 pm

:uarrow: You're being quite generous!!!
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Re: Tropical Storm Boris in EPAC

#129 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 28, 2008 7:48 pm

WHXX01 KMIA 290046
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0046 UTC SUN JUN 29 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE BORIS (EP022008) 20080629 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080629 0000 080629 1200 080630 0000 080630 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.8N 114.2W 15.2N 115.5W 15.3N 117.1W 15.3N 119.0W
BAMD 14.8N 114.2W 15.0N 116.3W 15.3N 118.6W 15.5N 121.1W
BAMM 14.8N 114.2W 14.9N 116.2W 14.8N 118.4W 14.3N 121.0W
LBAR 14.8N 114.2W 14.9N 116.3W 15.3N 118.7W 15.7N 121.4W
SHIP 45KTS 43KTS 37KTS 32KTS
DSHP 45KTS 43KTS 37KTS 32KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080701 0000 080702 0000 080703 0000 080704 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.2N 121.1W 14.9N 125.4W 14.4N 129.3W 13.6N 133.0W
BAMD 15.7N 123.8W 16.7N 128.7W 18.2N 132.8W 19.7N 135.6W
BAMM 13.9N 123.7W 13.2N 127.9W 12.6N 130.2W 11.0N 130.5W
LBAR 16.4N 124.3W 18.2N 129.4W 21.1N 132.7W 24.4N 133.0W
SHIP 28KTS 27KTS 24KTS 23KTS
DSHP 28KTS 27KTS 24KTS 23KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.8N LONCUR = 114.2W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 14.4N LONM12 = 112.5W DIRM12 = 288DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 13.5N LONM24 = 110.4W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 90NM RD34SW = 90NM RD34NW = 60NM
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#130 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Jun 28, 2008 8:14 pm

29/0000 UTC 14.7N 114.1W T3.0/3.5 BORIS -- East Pacific Ocean
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#131 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Jun 28, 2008 8:17 pm

Image

Burst over center. Boris may be a little bit stronger.
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#132 Postby Chacor » Sat Jun 28, 2008 9:50 pm

087
WTPZ42 KNHC 290249
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022008
800 PM PDT SAT JUN 28 2008

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT BORIS HAS REMAINED ESSENTIALLY
STEADY-STATE DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
PARTIALLY EXPOSED ON THE NORTH SIDE OF DEEP CONVECTION. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED AND SO IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.

LARGE SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
WESTWARD NORTH OF BORIS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SUCH A
PATTERN SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY WESTWARD WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. BEYOND 72
HOURS...SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST A NEW CYCLONE COULD FORM
EAST OF BORIS POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE STEERING. IN FACT...THE GFS
MODEL SHOWS BORIS LOOPING BACK TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST DUE TO
THIS SCENARIO. SINCE THIS SOLUTION IS AN OUTLIER AT THIS
TIME...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS A WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH
THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD...ALBEIT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.

BORIS IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR WHICH
IS CAUSING THE CURRENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST
THE SHEAR WILL REMAIN STRONG OR EVEN INCREASE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS LIMITING BORIS'S DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL. THE SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO DECREASE IN A DAY OR SO BUT BY THIS POINT BORIS IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND
CALLS FOR SLOW WEAKENING.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/0300Z 14.9N 114.6W 45 KT
12HR VT 29/1200Z 15.0N 115.8W 45 KT
24HR VT 30/0000Z 15.1N 117.4W 40 KT
36HR VT 30/1200Z 15.2N 119.1W 40 KT
48HR VT 01/0000Z 15.3N 120.8W 35 KT
72HR VT 02/0000Z 15.5N 124.0W 30 KT
96HR VT 03/0000Z 15.5N 127.0W 25 KT
120HR VT 04/0000Z 15.5N 129.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER RHOME
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Re: Tropical Storm Boris in EPAC

#133 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 29, 2008 6:14 am

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 290826
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022008
200 AM PDT SUN JUN 29 2008

BORIS CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITHIN A STRONG SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS PARTIALLY EXPOSED ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
DISORGANIZED CONVECTION YIELDING NO CHANGE IN THE SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THUS UNCHANGED AT 45
KT. VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OR EVEN INCREASE OVER
THE CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ADDITIONALLY...BORIS IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS BEYOND 36 HOURS.
SUCH AN ENVIRONMENT SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL WEAKENING DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH BORIS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN
3-4 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN
BEFORE AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS.

BORIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE BUILDS WESTWARD. SUCH A STRAIGHT FORWARD PATTERN WOULD
NORMALLY RESULT IN GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE VARIOUS TRACK MODELS.
HOWEVER...SEVERAL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST A NEW CYCLONE COULD
FORM EAST OF BORIS IN 2-3 DAYS POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE STEERING. IN
FACT...THE GFS...ECMWF...AND GFDL SHOW BORIS OR ITS REMNANTS
LOOPING BACK TO THE EAST OR NORTHEAST BEYOND 72 HOURS.
CONVERSELY...THE UKMET...HWRF...AND NOGAPS MODELS MAINTAIN A
WESTWARD MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE LATTER OF THESE
TWO SCENARIOS AND MAINTAINS A WESTWARD...ALBEIT SLOW...MOTION
THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/0900Z 15.0N 115.4W 45 KT
12HR VT 29/1800Z 15.1N 116.6W 40 KT
24HR VT 30/0600Z 15.2N 118.2W 35 KT
36HR VT 30/1800Z 15.3N 119.8W 35 KT
48HR VT 01/0600Z 15.4N 121.4W 30 KT
72HR VT 02/0600Z 15.5N 124.5W 30 KT
96HR VT 03/0600Z 15.5N 127.0W 25 KT
120HR VT 04/0600Z 15.5N 130.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
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Re: Tropical Storm Boris in EPAC

#134 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 29, 2008 7:56 am

WHXX01 KMIA 291252
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1252 UTC SUN JUN 29 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE BORIS (EP022008) 20080629 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080629 1200 080630 0000 080630 1200 080701 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.0N 115.8W 15.1N 117.2W 15.2N 118.9W 15.0N 120.5W
BAMD 15.0N 115.8W 15.2N 118.0W 15.2N 120.5W 15.2N 123.0W
BAMM 15.0N 115.8W 15.1N 117.8W 14.6N 120.3W 14.2N 122.9W
LBAR 15.0N 115.8W 15.2N 117.9W 15.6N 120.4W 16.2N 122.9W
SHIP 45KTS 43KTS 40KTS 37KTS
DSHP 45KTS 43KTS 40KTS 37KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080701 1200 080702 1200 080703 1200 080704 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.2N 122.6W 12.3N 125.8W 9.7N 127.7W 8.1N 127.8W
BAMD 15.3N 125.6W 15.4N 130.0W 15.6N 133.0W 15.3N 135.2W
BAMM 13.5N 125.1W 11.4N 128.3W 8.8N 129.3W 5.9N 129.6W
LBAR 16.9N 125.5W 18.3N 130.1W 19.8N 132.8W 20.0N 134.5W
SHIP 38KTS 36KTS 28KTS 28KTS
DSHP 38KTS 36KTS 28KTS 28KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.0N LONCUR = 115.8W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 14.8N LONM12 = 114.2W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 14.4N LONM24 = 112.5W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 75NM RD34SW = 75NM RD34NW = 60NM

$$
NNNN
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#135 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jun 29, 2008 9:44 am

TROPICAL STORM BORIS ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022008
800 AM PDT SUN JUN 29 2008

...BORIS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN IN A DAY OR TWO...

AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BORIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.2 WEST OR ABOUT 685
MILES...1100 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

BORIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...15.0 N...116.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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#136 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jun 29, 2008 9:44 am

TROPICAL STORM BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022008
800 AM PDT SUN JUN 29 2008

MICROWAVE DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF BORIS IS LOCATED
ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO SHEAR. THE OUTFLOW
APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED IN ALL QUADRANTS...BUT
CONVECTION REMAINS ASYMMETRIC. T-NUMBERS HAVE NOT CHANGED SO
INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45 KNOTS. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE THAT A LARGER SCALE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH A
DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF MEXICO WILL BE THE
PREVAILING FLOW. IN FACT...THE GFS ABSORBS BORIS INTO THE NEW
DISTURBANCE. THIS WOULD DISCOURAGE TO FORECAST AN INCREASE IN
INTENSITY. IN ADDITION...SHIPS MODEL GRADUALLY WEAKEN BORIS MAINLY
DUE TO DRY STABLE AIR APPROACHING THE CYCLONE. ONLY THE GFDL AND
HWFR MODELS STRENGTHEN BORIS IN THE NEAR TERM BUT THEN WEAKEN IT
THEREAFTER. THEREFORE...THE BEST OPTION AT THIS TIME IS TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN BORIS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. SINCE THE STEERING
CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE NEW
DISTURBANCE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A WESTWARD MOTION WITH
A GRADUAL REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED. BY DAY 3...BORIS SHOULD BE A
REMNANT LOW MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD. THIS IS THE SCENARIO PROVIDED BY
MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE. ALTHOUGH...SOME GLOBAL MODELS ARE
BEGINNING TO FORECAST AN EASTWARD TURN ASSUMING THAT BORIS WILL
BECOME ABSORBED BY THE NEW DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO DEVELOP.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/1500Z 15.0N 116.2W 45 KT
12HR VT 30/0000Z 15.0N 117.5W 40 KT
24HR VT 30/1200Z 15.0N 119.0W 35 KT
36HR VT 01/0000Z 15.0N 120.5W 30 KT
48HR VT 01/1200Z 15.0N 122.0W 25 KT
72HR VT 02/1200Z 15.0N 124.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 03/1200Z 15.0N 126.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 04/1200Z 15.0N 128.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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HURAKAN
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#137 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jun 29, 2008 11:06 am

Image

A little history:

The last time the EPAC hurricane season started with three tropical storms (no hurricanes) was in 2003.
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Re: Tropical Storm Boris in EPAC

#138 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun Jun 29, 2008 11:41 am

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc0 ... atest.html

Partly closed eye future seems to have tryed to form. Boris also looks a little bit more centered at this time, so in the short time it would not suprize if it holded its own nicely.
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#139 Postby KWT » Sun Jun 29, 2008 12:03 pm

If anything it looks a little stronger then it has been recently, convection still mainly on the southern side but its still got some deep convection with it as well. I'd personally go with 50kts but then again I'm no expert!
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Re: Tropical Storm Boris in EPAC

#140 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 29, 2008 1:36 pm

WHXX01 KMIA 291834
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1834 UTC SUN JUN 29 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE BORIS (EP022008) 20080629 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080629 1800 080630 0600 080630 1800 080701 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.0N 116.7W 15.3N 118.1W 15.4N 119.7W 15.1N 121.4W
BAMD 15.0N 116.7W 15.1N 119.0W 14.9N 121.5W 14.8N 124.0W
BAMM 15.0N 116.7W 15.0N 118.7W 14.6N 121.2W 14.1N 123.5W
LBAR 15.0N 116.7W 15.2N 118.8W 15.7N 121.2W 16.3N 123.7W
SHIP 45KTS 43KTS 38KTS 37KTS
DSHP 45KTS 43KTS 38KTS 37KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080701 1800 080702 1800 080703 1800 080704 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.6N 123.5W 12.9N 127.2W 10.5N 129.7W 8.9N 131.4W
BAMD 14.7N 126.4W 14.6N 130.6W 14.4N 133.3W 13.3N 135.7W
BAMM 13.4N 125.5W 11.5N 128.5W 9.2N 129.2W 6.9N 129.3W
LBAR 16.8N 126.4W 17.9N 130.8W 19.2N 133.6W 18.8N 136.0W
SHIP 35KTS 30KTS 27KTS 26KTS
DSHP 35KTS 30KTS 27KTS 26KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.0N LONCUR = 116.7W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 15.0N LONM12 = 115.0W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 14.7N LONM24 = 113.4W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 100NM RD34SW = 100NM RD34NW = 60NM

$$
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